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proglow cost housing constr deslabor construction ratio-housing unitlow cost housing prog coeffUnderemployedworker housing land multSWITCH TIME 10NEW ENTERPRISE CONSTR RATE&new enterprise construction programproduction units totalenterprise land multSWITCH TIME 6premium housing const prog&premium housing construction ratioPremium Housingpremium housing land multSWITCH TIME 3SLUM HOUSING DEMOLITION RATE"slum housing demolition programUnderemp HousingSWITCH TIME 5SWITCH TIME 1SWITCH TIME 4SWITCH TIME 8SWITCH TIME 9tax per cap subsidytax per cap subsidy size-$ -personunderemp job program coeff-dimensionlessunderemp to labor netunderemp to laborlabor to underemp:SUPPLEMENTARYunderemp training progunderemp training rateunderemployed job programworker housing const progWORKER HOUSING CONSTR RATIOhousing units total.Conditionpercent underempunderemp family sizepopulation -Dmnl underemployed crowdingunderemp housing ratiounemployment ratelabor jobsunderemployed jobsManager Prof JobsManager 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norm&new enterprise construction factorMature Business.Jobdeclining industry laborlabor construction ratio tablabor ratiolabor desired construct&premium housing construct desiredpremium housing constr labworker housing const des worker housing constr labnew enterprise constr lablow cost housing constr lablabor desired industrynew enterprise labormature business laborlabor ratio perception timeunderemp ratio"underemployed labor job ratio&underemployed labor job ratio tab .Labor"declining industry managementlabor birthlabor to managerlabor arrivallabor departurelabor arrival normalLabor Arrival Mult Perclabor arrival factorlabor arrival housing mult"labor arrival housing mult tablabor housing ratiolabor arrival jobs multlabor arrival jobs mult tablabor arrival multlabor arrival underemp multlabor arrival tax multlabor arrival mult perc tablabor arrival tax mult tab"labor arrival underemp mult Tablabor underemp ratiolabor birth ratelabor daparture multlabor daparture mult tablabor daparture normallabor edu multlabor edu mult tabtax per cap ratiolabor family sizeWorker Housingworker housing pop densitylabor layoff fraclabor layoff frac Tablabor mob factlabor mob multmanage supply multmanage labor multLabor Mob Mult Perclabor mob mult perc timelabor supply multlabor supply mult tablabor to manager normlabor unedermp multlabor underemp mult tabmanage labor mult tabmanager labor ratiomanage supply mult tabnew enterprise managementmature business managementunderemp edu multunderemp edu mult tabunderemp fract workingunderemp fract working tabunderemp mob factorunderemp mob multunderemp mob mult perc timeUnderemp Mob Mult Percunderemp mobilityUnderemp to Labor Percunderemp mobility normunderemp workingunderemp to labor perc time .Landland per houseland per production unitTOTAL LAND AREA -acres .Managermanager prof arriv factormanager prof arriv hous mult&manager prof arriv housing mult tabmanager prof hous ratiomanager prof arriv job mult"manager prof arriv job mult tabmanager prof arriv multmanager prof arriv pop multmanager prof arriv tax multManager Prof Arriv Mult Perc&manager prof arriv mult perc time"manager prof arriv pop mult tabmanager prof ratio"manager prof arriv tax mult tabmanager prof arrival normmanager prof arrivalsmanager prof birthmanager prof birth ratemanager prof departmanager prof depart normmanager prof depart multmanager prof depart mult tabmanager prof family sizepremium housing pop dens .Maturebusiness decline multbusiness decline mult tabenterprise decline multenterprise decline mult tabmature business decline norm"new enterprise decline normal.Premium.Housingpremium housing contructionpremium housing obsolescence"premium housing adeq mult tabpremium housing adeq multPremium Housing Averagepremium housing averate time"premium housing growth rate init&premium housing construction normpremium housing mult"premium housing enterprise mult&premium housing enterprise mult tabpremium housing factorpremium housing growth 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Mult Percattract migr mult perc tablepublic exp mult tabtax per cap normunderemp arr mob mult tabUNDEREMP ARRIVALS NORMAL-1underemp birth rateunderemp birthsunderemp depart mult tabunderemp departuresunderemp departures normunderemp departures multunderemp hous mult tableunderemp hous prog mult tabunderemp hous prog rateunderemp pop densityunderemp job mult tabunderemployed arrivals.Underemployed.Housing"slum housing abandomed mult tabslum housing abandoned mult"slum housing demolitin factorslum housing demolitionslum housing demolition normslum housing demolition multslum housing land multslum housing land mult tabworker housing obsolescence.Worker.Housingworker housing constructionworker housing adequacy mult"worker housing adequacy mult tabWorker Housing Averageworker housing average time&worker housing growth rate initialworker housing const normworker housing mult"worker housing enterprise mult&worker housing enterprise mult tabworker housing factorworker housing growth mult"worker housing growth mult tabworker housing growth rateworker housing land mult tab"worker housing obsolescense norm"worker housing obsolescense multworker housing underemp multworker housing tax mult&worker housing obsolescense mult tabworker housing tax mult tab"worker housing underemp mult tabą“ ”7Læ ‡”7LæssČo<L\L ¬LģLģL¬L|LŒ ¬%¬(œ+<.¬<1L¬ģ5L¬<:\?ŒģBģFģ ģIģ <Mģ Q¼T¼<W¼ģ[|L¼_|LdŒ¬hŒlÜL”7LæČ”7Læd,¬|<œ|Œ<œ¬Lģ\ül\¬ll LLLģlŒlœ\ü,¼ĢĢ,ĢlĢLlĢœœŒ¼lĢĢŒģ, ģlĢLŒģ\ü,l ģ | ÜüÜl œ Ģ Œ<œĢŒ¬ ¬ \ ¬ Œ < ,  <  ¬ Ģ ¬ ¼ Œģ¼ \Ü ,  ŒÜÜģ \ | Œ<\ lÜģĢܼ ģ  ü Œ ܼ |< ¬l|, < Œ üŒ¼ üll ¼ l \l, œl¼ģģœŒ¼ĢĢ , Œ L<ģ<\|lüģ¼ģĢģ  ģ ü œü L  l l  l L œ Lü œ l | l Œ ü     ,L,< Œ< <¼Ģ|  ¼œ ü ,< Ģ Œ<̬\ü<l\l œ<\ü¬¬\ü<l,L\¬L<LģL ģlllœ ,,œÜ<\ül| œL< LŒüģŒ<œģLģüģģ üŒ¬ŒœŒŒĢĢLŒŒ¼ü<¬œ << Œ ŒģLLĢ  üģģģģ üĢlŒ,ģLģ\¼¬¼<\| ,| \ Ü | \ĢĢ Œ ¬|ÜģÜģ<<< ģlĢLŒģ\ü,ģ,œü < , Ü lŒ<¼Œ ü <llœLģģ¼œĢ<¬\, L ĢL ,̼Lü \Œ¼l \ l ĢüĢ ĢĢ lŒ<ül¼\ œüŒ œĢ ģœĢģ¬œL| Œ,<Ģlœ,Œ,ģ\ģ,œ ĢÜĢĢ  ŒĢ,Ģ\üœ <\<| Ģ|Ģl()’’’’’’’’ Times New Roman¦.Labor*+’’’’’’’’ Times New 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New Roman*( Ü č@P ’€€€ *( ģ ‹rT ’€€€€€€ *( ģo\$ ’€€€€€€ *( ü ä’l ’€€€€€€ *( į{J ’€€€€€€ *( , Į4H ’€€€€€€ *( L ¦G ’€€€€€€  \ §$- ’*( l pI9 ’€€€€€€ *( | Æ= ’€€€€€€ *( Œ ²„; ’€€€€€€ *( œ ›> ’€€€€€€ *( ¬ ßcV ’€€€€€€  ¼ Ęc2 ’*( Ģ EC@ ’€€€€€€ *( \ ęG ’€€€€€€  Ü †. ’JH  zø2:’’’’ Times New Roman*( ģ ¶0 ’€€€ *( , vūN ’€€€  < ß6 ’*( l*B ’€€€€€€ *( L 3©A ’€€€€€€  l &^@ ’*( | KˆL ’€€€€€€ *( ƒĆA ’€€€€€€ *( •< ’€€€€€€  ó9 ’*( Œ ’NE ’€€€€€€ *( œ žrF ’€€€€€€  ü bÜ= ’*( ¬ YšI ’€€€€€€ *( ¼y7 ’€€€€€€ *( üƒf< ’€€€€€€ ,( C61€€€€€€ *( (#A ’€€€€€€ *( ÜŃf ’€€€€€€ *( œ = ’€€€€€€ *( Ģ ŸY ’€€€€€€ *( š; ’€€€€€€ *( ¼ $¹_ ’€€€€€€  Ü Õ< ’ ü J ’*( ģ IG ’€€€€€€ *( ;V ’€€€€€€ *( œ@U9 ’€€€€€€   rųC ’ , <Ī> ’JH L u—2:’’’’ Times New Roman*( < Éö\ ’€€€  \ ¦g: ’*( l ˆ”X ’€€€€€€  | |³K ’*( üd)€€€€€€ *( Œ ;ī; ’€€€€€€ JH l ów2:’’’’ Times New Roman*( œ (³X ’€€€ *( Ü3C* ’€€€€€€ *( Üx½* ’€€€€€€ 8I4~ĢH²—īU¶H1 Ź( Č5 Põ -3€ņE r#ŒN;CäU'ž1e[uƒywø7^.Q…:«§ ÜS yo! i€" t[$# Q#p('Ƕ)'vē,*&¾æu';³% Ļ+ęĻm#ƒd.-=x/-Ī /€‹0/ö21'31954\“64qö76~<86Z 97QŹ:7I ;7F¾<7I…=7G°>7M”?HA?B@,C@&9*E²×-EĄ©?EŽłDE\ēEFĪĘGFŖÓIH’ƒ0H›;Fˆ:JĄKużLčåMŖ(NM”@L0LnOBR(Šņ&(»›1(Ū4(:ĖP*KĖ$ø &9@K^qxƒŽ™¬·ĀĢןõ%0CNho‚• «²ÅŠŪāķų’$+>ITgz…‹‘—£©Æµ»ĮĒĶÓŁßåėń÷ż !'-39?EMSY_ekqw}ƒ‰•›H”7LæČ” ģõr ’*( TA €€€€€€ *( üq2d ’€€€€€€ JH ,ø0 ;’€€€ Times New Roman lż+9 ’*( ŒÖŠ ’€€€€€€ JH |n#;€€€ Times New RomanJH œ9Q0 ;’€€€ Times New Roman ¼@e< ’*( Ü1Q ’€€€€€€ *( Ģ”U ’€€€€€€ *( ü>ĪU ’€€€€€€ JH ,X·3 ;’€€€ Times New Roman*( ?/< ’€€€€€€ *( įW ’€€€€€€ $ LJźp ’*( lCAF ’€€€€€€ JH <¦,8;€€€ Times New Roman*( \M]J ’€€€€€€ JH |² 0 ;’€€€ Times New Roman ŒeóW ’*( ¬{b@ ’€€€€€€ *( œv4k ’€€€€€€ *( ¼8H[ ’€€€’€ JH Ģž"0 ;’€€€ Times New Roman*( l ’ ’€€€€€€ fb l«i :’’’’’’Times New RomanCity Development Programs ģG/e ’JH ÜNžC;€€€ Times New RomanJH ƒl0 ;’€€€ Times New Roman*( lod ’€€€€€€ *( üüiF ’€€€€€€  \"č= ’JH <n0 ;’€€€ Times New Roman*( lF,J ’€€€ *( lĢĖ ’€€€€€€  ¼i-E ’*( Ü~”(€€€€€€ *( ĢBw(€€€€€€  ü}˜H ’JH ŗĮ0 ;’€€€ Times New Roman*( vŽE ’€€€  ,(+S ’ B–X ’JH LyĀ0 ;’€€€ Times New Roman*( œLįY ’€€€ *( Lųr@ ’€€€€€€ JH ,h`0 ;’€€€ Times New RomanJH <V…A;€€€ Times New Roman*( „W ’€€€€€€ ˆ+u£ ę` M"B (E € &µ 7© ®x ›^  ĮEz K*‡üq1oJ#ˆJjkS P"!O#!7$!^Ö&%si'%TS)(¢±( y*(xĮ(ä`-,d±,]w.,HĀ,?[/+ T0+NJ1+?Y2+nnŗ+$śÖ$ Ū$JŪä %,7BMT_fq|‡’Ø®“ŗĄĘĢŅŲŽH”7Læ››Čänk ą„ :’’’’’’Times New RomanSupplemental measures of condition l²=9 ’*( ŒEj+ ’€€€€€€*( |Ŗ~J ’€€€€€€*(  m< ’€€€€€€ ¬{=O ’*( ¼ƒ…Q ’€€€€€€ Ģˆ§; ’*( Œ9Ö ’€€€€€€*( Ü”ā* ’€€€€€€*( ü/¼E ’€€€€€€*( 'įM ’€€€€€€*( M’< ’€€€€€€*( ģįI ’€€€€€€tV¬dļWg YĀ Ė ݲ ŽĘ fŲ¹ŲŌš #6ALWbmxƒŽ™¤ÆŗĄĘĢŅŲŽäźšöüH”7Læ››Čfb =^ :’’’’’’Times New RomanDeclining Industry SectorJH 7B2:’’’’ Times New Roman*( L<’M ’€€€ *( <‚;R ’€€€€€€ *( ln¹[ ’€€€€€€ *( \r|^ ’€€€€€€ *( 싳{ ’€€€€€€ *( |Ųh` ’€€€€€€ *( ŒĢćt ’€€€€€€ *( œ‘c ’€€€€€€ *( ¬„ ’€€€€€€ *( ĢZF ’€€€€€€ *( ÜÓŲn ’€€€€€€ *( ģZæN ’€€€€€€ Loå>gZ©Ų†Ü£ØŒ Ļ Ē£ ¢ü ś ī¹ <«Dš ")07BMT_jq|‡Ž™¤«²½ČĻāķų !,7BMXcntz€†Œ’›”§­³¹æÅĖŃׯćéļõū %+17=H”7LæjjČCb^ }T :’’’’’’Times New RomanNew Enterprise Sector g p ’ ®į3 ’ ,;ÜE ’*( <ÆŖQ ’€€€’*( LēšS ’€€€’ lŖ|L ’*( \ °W ’€€€’*( |ܑ@ ’€€€€€€ l5U= ’*( Œ£yH ’€€€€€€*( ģ—ˆN ’€€€€€€ œ›÷d ’*( ¬‘!p ’€€€€€€*( ¼°4@ ’€€€€€€ ̰= ’ Ģ ‘9 ’*( ÜŁĄE ’€€€€€€*( ģ ®$ ’€€€€€€ üo!l ’JH W2:’’’’ Times New Roman*( y~W ’€€€ *( ,rÆN ’€€€€€€ JH <ŻY2:’’’’ Times New Roman*( L”zV ’€€€ *( \§Sd ’€€€ *( Ü]­Q ’€€€€€€ *( lżÓm ’€€€€€€ *( PGA €€€€€€ *( œ]= ’€€€€€€ *( ŒuQh ’€€€€€€ *( |r8f ’€€€€€€ *( LŲry ’€€€€€€ {Ą ¶]˜ 5‡ ri lq  “ Ø®÷ūų¬R ų: 'ā[ģ­Ģ¢ĄlRtW9i/Uf›Ą¬*«š\łÆż ³ ± !č)xāzDˆ”i &1<CNYdoz…›¢­øĆĪŁäėö &1<GRX^djpv|‚ˆŽ”𠦬²ø¾ÄŹŠÖÜāčīōśH”7LænnČVS c( :’’’’’’Times New RomanJob Sector Üi­H ’*( ̽ŚS ’€€€’*( ÜŌ£! ’€€€’ ģeēG ’*( Ģił^ ’€€€€€€*( L{T ’€€€€€€*( <r)N ’€€€€€€*( l‡.v ’€€€€€€*( uET ’€€€€€€*( ü”Js ’€€€€€€*( h`X ’€€€€€€*( ,·dP ’€€€€€€ \¤øC ’*( UŽA €€€€€€*( ¼lP ’€€€€€€*( œĀ= ’€€€€€€*( |p0C ’€€€€€€*( Ü>; ’€€€€€€*( loT@ ’€€€€€€ Ü>! ’*( Œä× ’€€€€€€JH |[j2:’’’’ Times New Roman*( Œ<*R ’€€€  œa:0 ’*( Nt< ’€€€€€€ *( ģéZ@ ’€€€€€€ *( u‹a ’€€€€€€ *( ¬ŗf^ ’€€€€€€ *( ¼?5i ’€€€€€€ ™Ę¦āļöüņ  y ó  ģ& ‘+uĶƒāµš†śĀ† TĮī£ŽĆ‚—ŽD<T]«KxØuI_ÉŠuJ°m !(3>IP[fq|‡’£©Æµ»ĮĒĶÓŁH”7Læ››Čß^Y '< :’’’’’’Times New RomanLand Utilization LŹ57 ’*( ¬^a@ ’€€€€€€*( üc|F ’€€€€€€*( œ †”> ’€€€€€€ ģ~6E ’*( ¼ a. ’€€€€€€*( Ģ łhJ ’€€€€€€*( \€A ’€€€€€€*( Ü ¹ƒI ’€€€€€€*( µA ’€€€€€€*( œį²= ’€€€€€€*( ;Ī; ’€€€€€€M\£j5>MĮQ D_ Ÿb X ö +­čš #*5@GR]doz˜ŸŖµ¼ĒŅŁąēņ "-8CNYdou{‡“™Ÿ„«±·½ĆÉĻÕŪįēķół’ #)/5;AH”7LænnČGfd ³j :’’’’’’Times New RomanManager Professional Sector  ŒBX ’*( , Žwl ’€€€’*( < Ė™J ’€€€’ L }ŽT ’*( ¼ µ@ ’€€€€€€*( \ °Ÿ` ’€€€€€€ l XH ’*( Ó.V ’€€€€€€*( | -]_ ’€€€€€€JH œ %ś2:’’’’ Times New Roman*( ¬ †(f ’€€€  | [V ’*( ¼ éb ’€€€ *( Ģ EA: ’€€€  Œ gˆS ’*( Ü ·_ ’€€€ *( ģ­±$ ’€€€€€€  ģ 'łP ’ ü eĢB ’ øg: ’*( bBG ’€€€€€€ JH \i2; Times New Roman ,!n@ ’*( LŁöN ’€€€ *( <»Q ’€€€ *( \ź«Z ’€€€ *( lWÓT ’€€€€€€ *( Œį  ’€€€€€€ *( ¬y@ ’€€€€€€ *( |kņS ’€€€€€€ *( üÄ$> ’€€€€€€ *( 5< ’€€€€€€ c­ę;£— }ATLÄu ØZFs 7 Č óz ’J4¢Ÿ Éä?ęK”†QZ‚¶›ØYr*ćÉйŚ•Ź¤,·L!Æ: ü=t™ uµz”m ")4?FQdoz…›”§­³¹æÅĢŅŲŽH”7Læ››Čäb_ F#X :’’’’’’Times New RomanMature Business Sector œā¹A ’*( ¬0ŁL ’€€€’*( Ģ`ŻF ’€€€€€€ ¼ľE ’*( ĢpŽQ ’€€€€€€JH œAw2:’’’’ Times New Roman*( <xI ’€€€ *( ,’sE ’€€€ *( Ü)8Z ’€€€ *( H£; ’€€€€€€ *( ģ{9\ ’€€€€€€ ˙̒ŠĪ‘Ž ģtīžˆg R ®ž fŽ ƒOŌš "5@KValw~‰”§²½ČÓŽåšū *5<GR]hs~‰”𠦬²ø¾ÄŹŠÖÜāčīōś $*06<BHNTZ`fmsH”7Læ<<Čyb_ c] :’’’’’’Times New RomanPremium Housing SectorJH ¬:£2:’’’’ Times New Roman*( œ¢,€€€ *( ģ¤2€€€ *( ܍`Q ’€€€€€€ *( ü³éj ’€€€€€€ *( <¤ęm ’€€€€€€ *( ,Kß<€€€€€€  <cT ’*( < V€S ’€€€€€€ *( ,¹i ’€€€€€€ JH L“N2:’’’’ Times New Roman*( \ŠL[ ’€€€ *( lž1d ’€€€ *( Œz?` ’€€€€€€ *( |€ m ’€€€€€€ *( ŒcWL ’€€€€€€  œ]c ’*( L›‘\ ’€€€€€€ *( ¬’§n ’€€€€€€  ĢžZ ’*( ܶ©6€€€€€€ *( ģVzY ’€€€€€€  ¼‚/R ’*( ģŲPN ’€€€€€€ *( ü×j] ’€€€€€€  Œ”9C ’*( ¼—~Q ’€€€€€€ *( s“Q ’€€€€€€ *(  N ’€€€€€€ *( L>=€€€€€€ *( Ģ ™¹C ’€€€€€€ *( \PĢ] ’€€€€€€ *( l©»Z ’€€€€€€ *( ģWÓ$ ’€€€€€€ ᢔ¶‘t«ŃŽ”½Ī#Ę ?t qz p| L @īÉ’” †%ÓyĻ…ŖÕv¹ ƒ c u^³A²P åPVLšb&3†ląq”vż ŠŖ!]µ"e®#;½; &1<GR]hs~‰”ŸŖµĄĒŅŁąėö "-8CNY`gny„—¢Ø®“ŗĄĘĢŅŲŽäźšöü &,28>DJPV\bhntzH”7LæAAȀVS ¢* :’’’’’’Times New RomanTax Sector Œøˆ. ’*( ¬3I ’€€€’*( œ[2G ’€€€’*( [ÜA ’€€€€€€*( ģ¹…d ’€€€€€€*( œy»= ’€€€€€€*( ÜĖnb ’€€€€€€*( |§; ’€€€€€€*( ĢŪR\ ’€€€€€€*( ¬‡™@ ’€€€’€*( üzBc ’€€€’€*( ü×ÉF ’€€€€€€*( ˆ}g ’€€€€€€*( œ ز> ’€€€€€€*( wd_ ’€€€€€€ ,…ŹL ’*( <x# ’€€€€€€ L~J@ ’ \Ł8 ’*( O!J ’€€€€€€*( lPåD ’€€€€€€*( Œō­ ’€€€€€€*( Œ ­­; ’€€€€€€*( l™”T ’€€€€€€*( Ō–M ’€€€€€€*( Œ£`E ’€€€€€€*( |nKO ’€€€€€€*( œ­zT ’€€€€€€*( |æŹJ ’€€€€€€*( Ą< ’€€€€€€ ¬)- ’ ¼ć>3 ’ ģ  ’*( ÜóįS ’€€€€€€*( Ģū/+ ’€€€€€€JH Ü$2:’’’’ Times New Roman*( ģ“‘5€€€ éXƒX8k_I|tR Kr |C źh ń9 ‚źYūvįL¢£|õŒņ0e”gŠZ Y+ <õ. 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‡¬•L&¦ ×£<‡\'‡Lb•Œ$¦@@±$¦@±$¦€?±¦±¦€?±¦@±¦@@±®¦ĶĢ @±¦@±¦ĶĢĢ?±¦€?±¦333?±¦?±¦ĶĢĢ> ‡¬>•œ$¦@±¦±¦@±¦€@±®¦š™™?±¦€?±¦333?±¦š™™> ‡¬"•|&•œ¦ģQø?%•¼•ģ ‡¬•l&•¬®¹•  ‡¬R•¬¦±¦€?±¦@±¦@@±¦€@±¦ @±®¦?±¦ĶĢL?±¦€?±¦š™™?±¦ff¦?±¦ff¦? ‡¬PiH”7Læ" " Ȁ &Internally defined simulation time.^ Urban dynamics model from the book appendix Copyright 1974 Jay W. Forrester* City Development Programs* Declining Industry Demolition Program* Declining Industry Demolition Ratio Labor Training ProGram Labor Training Rate Low Cost Housing Program* Low Cost Housing Construction Desired* Low Cost Housing Program Coefficient& New Enterprise Construction Rate* New Enterprise Construction Program* Premium Housing Construction Program& Premium Housing Construction Ratio" Slum Housing Demolition Rate& Slum Housing Demolition Program SWitch Time 1 Switch Time 10 SWitch Time 2 SWitch Time 3 SWitch Time 4 SWitch Time 5 SWitch Time 6 SWitch Time 7 SWitch Time 8 SWitch Time 9" Tax Per Capita Subsidy Program Tax Per Capita Subsidy* Underemployed Job Program Coefficient Underemployed to Labor Net" Underemployed Training Program" Underemployed Training Rate Underemployed Job Program* Worker Housing Construction Program& Worker Housing Construction Ratioj Supplementary measurements of the condition of the city used as aids for presentation> The percentage of the population that is underemployed.2 The level of crowding among the unemployed. The unemployment rate. Control Cards End of simulation" Initial year of simulation.( Frequency with which data are saved Solution interval.* DecliningIUndustry Sector Declining Industry Declining Industry Decline& Declining Industry Decline Factor* Declining Industry Decline Multiplier& Declining Industry Decline Normal2 Declining Undustry from Enterprise Multiplier> Declining Industry from Enterprise Multiplier Table. Declining Industry from Land Multiplier: Declining Industry from Land Multiplier Table New Enterprise* Declining Industry Construction Factor Enterprise Factor& Enterprise from Growth Multiplier. Enterprise from growth Multiplier Table6 Enterprise from Labor Job Multiplier Table. Enterprise from Labor Job Multiplier& Enterprise from Land Multiplier* Enterprise from Land Multiplier Table> Enterprise from Manager-professional job MultiplierF Enterprise from Manager-professional job Multiplier Table Enterprise Multiplier" Enterprise from Tax Multiplier* Enterprise from Tax Multiplier Table* Mature Business Construction Factor New Enterprise New Industry Average New Industry Average Time" New Enterprise Construction* New Enterprise Construction Desired& New Enterprise Construction Factor& New Enterprise construction Normal New Enterprise Growth Rate& New Industry Growth Rate Initial Job Sector Declining Enterprise Labor Labor Construction Ratio" Labor Construction Ratio Table" Labor Desired for Construction Labor Desired for Industry Labor Jobs Labor Ratio Labor Ratio Perceived" Labor Ratio Perception Time* Low Cost Housing Constrtuction Labor Mature Business Labor& New Enterprise Construction Labor New Enterprise Labor* Premium Housing Constrtuction Labor Underemployed Ratio Underemployed Jobs" Underemployed Labor Job Ratio* Underemployed Labor Job Ratio Table& Worker Housing Constrtuction Labor" Labor Sector" Declining Industry Management Labor Labor Arrivals Labor Arrival Factor* Labor Arrival from Housing Multiplier* Labor Arrival from Housing Multiplier& Labor Arrival from Jobs Multiplier Labor Arrival Multiplier. Labor Arrival from Jobs Multiplier Table& Labor Arrival Multiplier Perceived Labor Arrivals Normal. Labor Arrival Multiplier Perception Time& Labor Arrivals from Tax Multiplier2 Labor Arrivals from Underembloyed Multiplier. Labor Arrivals from Tax Multiplier Table> Labor Arrivals from Underembloyed Multiplier Table Labor Births Labor Birth Rate Labor Departure Multiplier& Labor Departure Multiplier Table. Labor departure Normal Labor Departure" Labor Educational Multiplier& Labor Educational Multiplier Table Labor Housing Ratio Labor Layoff Fraction" Labor Layoff Fraction Table Labor Mobility Factor Labor Mobility Multiplier* Labor Mobility Multiplier Perceived. Labor Mobility Multiplier Perception Time Labor Supply Multiplier Labor To Manager" Labor Supply Multiplier Table Labor to Manager Normal Labor To Underemployed" Labor Underemployed Multiplier* Labor Underemployed Multiplier Table Labor Underemployed Ration Manager Labor Multiplier" Manager Labor Multiplier Table" Managment Supply Multiplier& Manager Supply Multiplier Table Manager job Ratio Manager Labor Ration& Managerial and professional Jobs Mature Business Management New Enterprise Management* Underemployed Educational Multiplier. Underemployed Educational Multiplier Table" Underemployed Fraction Working* Underemployed Fraction Working Table" Underemployed Mobility Factor& Underemployed Mobility Multiplier> Underemployed Mobility Multiplier Perception Time2 Underemployed Mobility Multiplier Percieved Underemployed Mobility" Underemployed Mobility Normal Underemployed to Labor& Underemployed to Labor Perceived* Underemployed to Labor Perception Time Underemployed Working& Worker Housing Population Density& Land Utilization Housing Units Total Land Fraction Occupied Land Per House Land Per Production unit Production Units Total total land AREA. Manager-Professional Sector* Manager-professional Arrival FactorB Manager-professional Arrivals from Housing MultiplierF Manager-professional Arrivals from Housing Multiplier Table> Manager-professional Arrival from Jobs MultiplierB Manager-professional Arrival from Jobs Multiplier Table. Manager-professional Arrival Multiplier> Manager-professional Arrival Multiplied PercievedB Manager-professional Arrivals from Population MultiplierB Manager-professional Arrival Multiplier Perception TimeJ Manager-professional Arrivals from Population Multiplier Table> Manager-professional Arrival from Tax MultiplierB Manager-professional Arrival from Tax Multiplier Table* Manager-professional Arrivals Normal" Manager-professional Arrivals" Manager-Professional Births& Manager-Professional Birth Rate& Manaeger-professional Departures. Manager-professional Departures Multiplier: Manager-professional Departures Multiplier Table Manager Departures Normal* Manager-professional Housing Ration* Manager-professional Population Ratio Manager-Professionals& Premium Housing Population Density& Mature Business" Business Decline Multiplier& Business Decline Multipler Table" Enterprise Decline Multiplier& Enterprise Decline Multipler Table Mature Business Mature Business Decline" Mature Business Decline Normal New Enterprise Decline" New Enterprise Decline Normal& Premium Housing Premium Housing: Premium Housing from Adequacy Multipler Table. Premium Housing from Adequacy Multipler Premium Housing Average" Premium Housing Averaging Time* Premium Housing Construction Desired* Premium Housing Construction Normal" Premium Housing Construction4 Premium Housing from Enterprize Multiplier.> Premium Housing from Enterprize Multiplier Table Premium Housing factor* Premium Housing from Growth Multiplier: Premium Housing from Growth Multiplier Table" Premium Housing Growth Rate* Premium Housing Growth Rate Initial* Premium Housing from Land Multiplier Premium Housing Multiplier6 Premium Housing from Land Multiplier Table" Premium Housing Obsolescence6 Premium Housing Obsolescence Multipier Table. Premium Housing Obsolescence Multiplier* Premium Housing Obsolescence Normal. Premium Housing from Population Multiplier: Premium Housing from Population Multiplier Table* Premium Housing From Tax Multiplier. Premium Housing From Tax Multiplier Table" Tax Sector Assessed Value Business Assessed Value& Declining Industry Assessed Value Housing Assessed value" Mature Business Assessed Value" New enterprise Assessed Value" Premium Housing Assessed Value Tax Assessment Indicated Tax Assessment Normal Tax Collection Multiplier& Tax Collection Multiplier Table Tax Needed Tax Collections Tax Ratio Needed Tax Ratio Tax Ratio Needed Perceived& Tax Ratio Needed Perception Time Tax Ratio Table" Tax spending per Labor Person2 Tax spending per Manager-professional Person* Tax spending per Underemployed Person* Underemployed Housing Assessed Value" Worker Housing Assessed Value" Underemployed sector* Attractoveness for Migration Factor. Attractiveness for Migration Multiplier> Attractiveness for Migration Multiplier PerceivedB Attractiveness for Migration Multiplier Perception Time Labor Family Size* Managerial/Professional Family Size Population* Public Expenditure Multiplier Table" Public Expenditure Multiplier Tax Per Capita Normal Tax Per Capita Ratio. Underemployed Arrivals Mobility Multiplier> Underemployed Arrivals Mobility Multiplier Table" Underemployed Arrivals Normal Underemployed Birth Rate Underemployed Births. Underemployed Departures Multiplier Table Underemployed Departures* Underemployed Departures Multiplier& Underemployed Departures Normal Underemployed Family Size* Underemployed Housing Multiplier Table. Underemployed Housing Program Multiplier: Underemployed Housing Program Multiplier Table& Underemployed Housing Program Rate& Underemployed Housing Multiplier" Underemployed Housing Ratio" Underemployed Job Multiplier* Underemployed Job Multiplier Table.& Underemployed Population Density Underemployed Underemployed Arrivals* Underemployed Housing. Slum Housing Abandoned Multiplier Table& Slum Housing Abandoned Multiplier" Slum Housing Demolition Factor Slum Housing Demolition& Slum Housing Demolition Multiplier" Slum Housing Demolition Normal& Slum Housing from Land Multiplier. Slum Housing from Land Multiplier Table Underemployed Housing" Worker Housing Worker Housing, Worker Housing from Adequacy Multipler6 Worker Housing from Adequacy Multipler Table Worker Housing Average" Worker Housing Averaging Time* Worker Housing Construction Desired& Worker Housing Construction Normal" Worker Housing Construction. Worker Housing from Enterprise Multiplier: Worker Housing from Enterprize Multiplier Table Worker Housing factor* Worker Housing from Growth Multiplier6 Worker Housing from Growth Multiplier Table Worker Housing Growth Rate* Worker Housing from Land Multiplier& Worker Housing Growth Rate Initial6 Worker Housing from Land Multiplier Table" Worker Housing Obsolescence Worker Housing Multiplier* Worker Housing Obsolescence Multiplier& Worker Housing Obsolescence Normal4 Worker Housing Obsolescence Multipier Table. 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Most screens have menu items. To select a menu item you can click on it, type the first letter, or highlight it using the up and down arrow keys and press the enter key. The main gaming screen has buttons rather than menu selections. Use the mouse to click on a button and activate the associated action. Additional functionality available in the software is described in places where it can be used. To conserve space, later commentaries will be kept small, and you will need to scroll them to read all the information they contain. The model used for this application is the Urban Dynamics model as published in the book Urban Dynamics by Jay W. Forrester (MIT Press, Cambridge, MA 1969). :END-OF-REPORT :REPORT COMM3 :TITLE COMM3 :FONT Times New Roman|12||0-0-0 You can do analysis of the model by first loading in scenarios of interest, and then reviewing the output or doing causal tracing. The Load and reorder command will put up a small window with two lists. On the left is a list of loaded scenarios, on the right a list of scenarios that have been run. The << button loads scenarios. Click on the scenario you want to load in the right hand list, and then click the << button. The >> button unloads scenarios. Click on the scenario you want to unload in the left hand list, and the click on the >> button. You can load up to 8 scenarios at a time, but it is difficult to read graphs with more than 4 scenarios loaded. If the list on the right is empty, you will need to run some scenarios. Exit back to the main menu and do this. You can run the scenarios described in "Beyond the Limits" by choosing one of the named scenarios to base your scenario on, and running the scenario without making any additional changes. Causal tracing is a process the allows you to determine the underlying causes of behavior, and differences in behavior between different scenarios. There are two options for doing causal tracing available. The first uses tree diagrams and single graphs. The second uses equations and multiple graphs. Try them both out to see which you prefer. :END-OF-REPORT :REPORT COMM4 :TITLE COMM4 :FONT Times New Roman|12||0-0-0 The cause and use screens show lists of different variables. The graphs allows your to compare different scenarios. The trees allow you to investigate the structure of the model. You can double click on a variable name in the graphs, trees or documentation to view the same analysis screen for that variable. You can also use the S command to select a new variable to work with. You can print the contents of the graphs and trees using the P command. Output will be directed to your default printer. During causal tracing you can switch between the Tree and Graph represen- tations of causes. This can be useful as means of understanding both structure and behavior. :END-OF-REPORT :REPORT EXP1 :TITLE EXP1 :FONT Times New Roman|12||0-0-0 Build low cost housing in order to improve the condition of the underemployed. This is housing units/person/year so that .2 means everyone should have a new house in five year. :END-OF-REPORT :REPORT EXP2 :TITLE EXP2 :FONT Times New Roman|12||0-0-0 Demolish slum housing. Encourages new higher quality housing and business growth, but at the expense of available housing for the underemployed. Measure in fraction/year destroyed. :END-OF-REPORT :REPORT EXP3 :TITLE EXP3 :FONT Times New Roman|12||0-0-0 Programs to make jobs available to the underemployed. Measured as the % of unemployed offered jobs. :END-OF-REPORT :REPORT EXP4 :TITLE EXP4 :FONT Times New Roman|12||0-0-0 Job training programs. Measured as the fraction/year of underemployed trained. :END-OF-REPORT :REPORT EXP5 :TITLE EXP5 :FONT Times New Roman|12||0-0-0 Construction of new business subsidized and/or directed by the government. Measures in fraction/year of existing business the is created. :END-OF-REPORT :REPORT EXP6 :TITLE EXP6 :FONT Times New Roman|12||0-0-0 Demolition of ailing businesses. Buyouts and accelerated shutdowns. Measures in fraction/year removed. :END-OF-REPORT :L<%^E!@ 1:BASE.vdf 8:urban.vgd 9:temp 14:base100 15:0,0,0,0 19:100,0 4:Time 5:Declining Industry