÷H(Wed Aug 13 14:50:51 1997) From Wrld3-91.vmfe,‹‚ç†?ž?ž)¹?ž-¡7L¿||È*¼í4@AB!"#$%' €d~|&…ud     #€?B(Q #ß €ö€öÓ©L û I #Ô €ö€öfL 'i # €ö€öL Y #ë €ö€öL  €ö¼Š$‡€ö€ö¼ ‰4L €ö¼Š8S&€ö¼Š>¾Ma€ö€ölì(BTDZ€ö€öí³ì$Ië«€ö€öð´\$O%û³€ö€ö¿\$[ÕUh€ö€ö¼žì aL€ö€ö¼ ‡dàc z€ö€öÈ]ì$ló“ †€ö€öËì va´›€ö€öô&ì(}ĸ€ö€öö÷ì †œ€ö€ö¼ ‡ˆ(©€ö€öægì,ŠJr+G€ö€öÀ|,ŽvÝÇ€ö€öºì •ŠÌÄ€ö€öýùì šì€ö€ö¼ ‡Ÿü€ö€ö¼ ‡¢E¶©€ö€öëhì,§ëuS­€ö€öÏò<,«,€ö€ö¼ ‡®Çì€ö€ö[ì$·–€ö€öùkL$ÈgÕ»€ö€ö¹ì$Ìl€ö€ö¼ ‡Ï€ö€ö¼ ‹ÔëÒ€ö€ösì$ã”ì€ö€öõì ó®ôá€ö€öd‰ì$ûµ €ö€ötì$ È3&€ö€ö÷ ì é>G€ö€ögŠì$"øiY€ö€ökì ,âK‡€ö€ö§›Ì,4%wq€ö€öi‹ì$<4¢ƒ€ö€ömì Ft¼¥€ö€öϧì O•àÌ€ö€örì$^F ba #ø €ö€ö¾ñL f \´€ö€öššÌ,l÷â€ö¼ŠrÖ€ö€öf5|,x¦œ @‰{O(€ö€ö¦N|,ƒé'#€ö€ö}<|$Œìö#‡€ö€ö‚>| ˜áî#q€ö€ö€=| £9&€ö€öa4|,¬XÑI€ö€öþlü,º4X3€ö€ö¿Y| À?`<€ö€öaˆ| Å‘‡I€ö€ö*Æ|,зI+Àö€öò\(Õa€N€ö€ö%Å|,ߪ›R€ö€ö!Ã|,êpæ[€ö€ö($| õ÷þ€ö€öÁ| û «€ö€ö,Ç|,α0n€ö€ö.|( Ì #$€ö€ö;l ¹€ö€öÂ|,!(0Ѐö€ö"| .A>ë€ö€ö#Ä|,:TT€ö€ö#| Gmb0€ö€ö6É|$S€r0/€ö€ö8%| a:¾5€ö€öðiü,e,€ö€ö¼ ‡gã#c€ö€öj7| rßÈ4z€ö€ö4È|$|ˆž€ö¼Š‚ü×#•€ö€öŠB\$ˆ ß#Ÿ€ö€öŒC\ €ö€ö»\$šUîf€ö€öd\$¤dür€ö€ö`)\(¬­#2€ö€öb\ ¸: Á€ö€ö¼\$ÃM6Õ€ö€ö  \ Ï×_+â€ö€ö¸Ì Ö~Dé€ö€ö½\$á‘pý€ö€ö !\ í¥# €ö€ö¾\ ÷¸9C€ö€öf\$(áP€ö€öh3\ u|€ö€öÕª\ ‰€ö¼Š"€=“€ö€ööµ\$* 0ž€ö€öø¶\$3ž70«€ö€öú\ >Œ – €ö€ö«ì\ ,Fâs=í€ö€öü·Ì$NÌT+Ì€ö€öÀ \ U×G€ö¼Š[÷„#ú€ö€öþ¸Ì$d¡#€ö€öÌ o!i€ö¼Šu'¯,€ö€öáü,{MÆ#<€ö€öójü „„ò|€ö€ö8 ü Œgê\€ö€ö ü œˆ™€ö¼Š£¤,ª€ö€öü L µ@œG €ö€öaÕL$Á)ŒG÷€ö€ö_ÔL$ÍÑ7CÏ€ö€ö[ÓL$ÙàzCá€ö€ö]*L çU¥0€ö€ö2 L ì#Ü€ö¼Šï(ã€ö¼Šõ`¸/€ö€ö%zÌ$D ¿ [ €ö€ö'{ $I Gº€ö€öuÌ$!yÄC€ö€ö~Ì$*ü;P €ö€özÌ(00 3#¬€ö€ö„?Ì$:ˆÔQ€ö€ö€Ì$Cá#^€ö€öŽ–Ì,X­#q€ö€öÌ ia½Ç€ö€ö'l(rñ'K’€ö€ö¶œÌ | CP©€ö€ö¾ŸÌ „èâ€ö€ö pl,•É ©€ö€ö—I¼ ,žb [#΀ö€ö‚‘Ì,§A e#¼€ö€ö†@Ì ±L m#Ñ€ö€öˆAÌ »W å€ö€övÌ$Ì{ ‘€ö€öxÌ Þp ‰ù€ö€öwÌ ð† Ÿ#€ö€ö!yÌ$™ Î9€ö€ö#Ì Î Ö#R€ö€ö„’Ì Ù ä#g€ö€ö†“Ì,(† næ€ö€öˆ”Ì,;ì ð|€ö€öŒ•Ì,Mû “€ö€öŠÌ ^¬™ 0¨ €ö€ö°!\ (g{ c#Ú€ö€ö”—Ì o• ‹ò€ö€ö’Ì | ·€ö¼Š¶ ™€ö€ö¹V¼ $‹Ô … Ñ€ö€öé±¼ ,“ã #Ü€ö€öë²¼ žÜ Æ)€ö€öš¼ ¨ý ÔS>€ö€ö׫¼ ,ª ¨ Sù€ö€öðõ¼ ,³î œ Sê€ö€öîô¼ ,¾ · S €ö€öòö¼ ,Ç ßVC€ö€öÙ¬¼ ,Ì  VO€ö€öÛ¼ ÓH  Zo€ö€öÝ­¼ ,Ü] 3 Z|€ö€öß¼ ç~ C Z—€ö€öᮼ ,ð“ a Z£€ö€öã¼ ú³  K¢ €ö€ö*  ,´ q S½€ö€ö导 ,ƒ(ST€ö€öÞ#<( §CSp€ö€öä$<(É y Ä€ö€öç°¼  ' P­ €ö€ö( (! 8€ö¼Š&' ¿ # €ö€öE 02 Ç #/ €ö€ö’F := Õ D €ö€ö*| $IP î ] €ö€ö. 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Ø0€ö€ö)¼(0 ó0€ö€öE¼(0 #€ö€ö.¼$0# 0€ö€ö7 ¼(03 <€ö€öY¼(0@ [€ö€ö_¼(0T z0€ö€ö-¼(0f •0€ö€öI¼(0y °#€ö€ö0¼$0Œ Á0€ö€ö; ¼(0Ÿ Þi€ö€ö*¼$0³ íf€ö€öM¼(0È #€ö€ö+¼,0Ý i€ö€öT3¼$0ò &f€ö€ö?¼(0 9i€ö€öQ2¼$0 Hf€ö€ö1¼(01 ]K€ö€ö]¼(0C |#€ö€ö+¼(0P —#€ö€öG¼(0^ ²#€ö€ö/¼$0l Ã#€ö€ö9 ¼(0z àK€ö€ö'¼(0Š ûK€ö€öC¼(0› #€ö€ö-¼$0« 'K€ö€ö5 ¼(0¼ DK€ö€ö%¼(0Ï _K€ö€öA¼(0ã z#€ö€ö ,¼$0÷ ‹K€ö€ö3¼(0 ¨K€ö€ö[¼(0Ç€ö€ö/¼(0-â€ö€öK¼(0@ý#€ö€ö!1¼$0S€ö€ö= ¼(0ì  ÌlŒÌ\ì¬Ll¬<LÜ|œÜl,ü¼\|¼Lü<<Œ,\œœ, lL,| ŒìüÜì|\\ÌüL¼Ì¼ L \ <¼,lœ¼|ìŒl <üŒ œ ¼ ¬ ̼ÜÌ,ÌÜl|ì  , ìl¬ü \l¬¼<L¬\,L|œ¼ü ŒÌ ¬Ì Ì |ü\lÌl Ü,<LlŒ|œŒ¬ œÌL\ü<Ü ìü œŒ<Œ¼üì ü , Üì< l L | ÌìüŒœì œ\¼¬|¬LÜ¬Ü ì\ Œ ¬ œ ¼  <¼< L \ | l L\¬ œ  ü lü|ì<Œ¼¼œ |Œœ¬,< |L L \ l | Œ œ ¼ ì Ü ì <l|Œ¬Üì\ÌŒÌüÜ ,¼|¼Ìì\ÜLl,ŒœLü ,¼üÌ Ü,<Lì\ÜŒœ|lìü ìülLŒ\¬Ü<̬l¼ |l | Œ Ì ì , < ¬ Ü œ Œ \ L , \\Ì Ü Ì,  < |ŒÜÜ<Ll\|LÌ<Ü,,¬ü  ü Ì Ü , ¬ œœ¬ì ,,¬ülœ<<¬¼œ,<\L¼C¡7L¿ääÈfSUMPRODVMINVMAXTimeINITIAL TIMEFINAL TIMETIME STEP SAVEPER.Wrld3-91 DLINF3 DLINF3INDELLV2DLLV1.Agriculture.Agriculture.Loop1Arable Landland development rateland erosion rate.land removal for urban and industrial useinitial arable land -hectaredevelopment cost per hectare&development cost per hectare tablePotentially Arable Land"potentially arable land total-$foodland yieldland fraction harvestedprocessing loss-Veg equiv kg -yearfood per capitapopulation -Person"total agricultural investmentBfraction of agricultural inputs allocated to land developmentland fr cult -Dmnl:SUPPLEMENTARY:fraction of industrial output allocated to agriculture 1>fraction industrial output allocated to agriculture table 1indicated food per capita:fraction of industrial output allocated to agriculture 2>fraction industrial output allocated to agriculture table 2indicated food per capita 1&indicated food per capita table 1industrial output per capitaindicated food per capita 2&indicated food per capita table 2"initial potentially arable land:fraction of industrial output allocated to agricultureIF THEN ELSEPOLICY YEARindustrial output.Agriculture.Loop2Agricultural Inputs SMOOTHcurrent agricultural inputs"average life agricultural inputs,average life of agricultural inputs 2*average life of agricultural inputs 1"agricultural input per hectare6fraction of agricultural inputs for land maintenancedesired food ratioIND OUT IN 1970*land yield multiplier from technology 1Land Fertility&land yield multiplier from capital*land yield multiplier from air pollution*land yield multiplier from capital tableland yield factor 1*land yield multiplier from technology 2Land Yield Technologytechnology development delay.land yield multipler from air pollution 12land yield multipler from air pollution table 1.land yield multiplier from air pollution 22land yield multipler from air pollution table 2.land yield technology change rate multiplier6land yield technology change rate multiplier tablefood ratio-1*air pollution policy implementation time&land yield technology change rate.Agriculture.Loop3average life of landaverage life of land normal&land life multiplier from land yield&urban and industrial land requiredUrban and Industrial Land.urban and industrial land development time*land life multiplier from land yield 1.land life multiplier from land yield table 1inherent land fertility*land life multiplier from land yield 2.land life multiplier from land yield table 2&land life policy implementation time2urban and industrial land required per capita6urban and industrial land required per capita table&initial urban and industrial land.Agriculture.Loop4land fertility degredation"land fertility degredation rate(land fertility degredation rate tablepersistent pollution indexland fertility regenerationinitial land fertility.Agriculture.Loop5"land fertility regeneration time*land fertility regeneration time table.Agriculture.Loop6Perceived Food Ratio"food shortage perception delaysubsistence food per capita>fraction of agricultural inputs for land maintenance table.Agriculture.Loops1&2Ffraction of agricultural inputs allocated to land development table.marginal productivity of land development.marginal productivity of agricultural inputs.marginal land yield multiplier from capital6marginal land yield multiplier from capital tablesocial discount .Capital.Capital.Industry:fraction of industrial output allocated to investment6fraction of industrial output allocated to services:fraction of industrial output allocated to consumption"industrial capital depreciationIndustrial Capital&average life of industrial capital"industrial capital investmentRindustrial capital output ratio multiplier from resource conservation technologyBindustrial capital output ratio multiplier from resource table"Resource Conservation Technology&industrial output per capita desiredinitial industrial capitalBfraction of industrial capital allocated to obtaining resources"capacity utilization fraction"industrial capital output ratio&average life of industrial capital 1&average life of industrial capital 2Bfraction of industrial output allocated to consumption constantFfraction of industrial output allocated to consumption constant 2Ffraction of industrial output allocated to consumption constant 1Bfraction of industrial output allocated to consumption variableJfraction of industrial output allocated to consumption variable table&industrial capital output ratio 1&industrial capital output ratio 2Jindustrial capital output ratio multiplier from land yield technologyFindustrial capital output ratio multiplier from pollution technologyBindustrial capital output ratio multiplier from pollution table"Persistent Pollution Technologyindustrial equilibrium time2industrial capital output ratio multiplier table.Capital.Jobs&Delayed Labor Utilization Fractionlabor utilization fraction*labor utilization fraction delay time&capacity utilization fraction tablejobs"potential jobs industrial sector(potential jobs agricultural sector"potential jobs service sectorjobs per hectarejobs per hectare table"jobs per industrial capital unit*jobs per industrial capital unit table"jobs per service capital unit&jobs per service capital unit tableservice output per capitalabor forcePopulation 15 To 44Population 45 To 64&labor force participation fractionService Capital.Capital.Service&average life of service capital 1&average life of service capital 2:fraction of industrial output allocated to services 1>fraction of industrial output allocated to services table 1&indicated services output per capita:fraction of industrial output allocated to services 2>fraction of industrial output allocated to services table 20indicated services output per capita 1.indicated services output per capita table 1*indicated services output per capita 2.indicated services output per capita table 2"service capital output ratio 1"service capital output ratio 2"average life of service capitalservice capital output ratioservice capital depreciationservice capital investmentservice outputinitial service capital .Control.Pollution&agricultural material toxicity index-Pollution unitsassimilation half life"assimilation half life in 1970&assimilation half life multiplier&assimilation half life mult table&desired persistent pollution index>fraction of agricultural inputs from persistent materials2fraction of resources from persistent materials&industrial material toxicity index-Resource unit&industrial material emissions factor*persistent pollution generation factor 1*persistent pollution generation factor 26persistent pollution technology change multiplier6persistent pollution technology change mult tablePersistent Pollution&persistent pollution appearance rate*persistent pollution assimilation rateinitial persistent pollution*persistent pollution generation industry&per capita resource use multiplier.persistent pollution generation agriculture&persistent pollution generation rate*persistent pollution generation factor DELAY3*persistent pollution transmission delaypersistent pollution in 1970.persistent pollution technology change rate.Populationdeaths 0 to 14Population 0 To 14mortality 0 to 14deaths 15 to 44mortality 15 to 44deaths 45 to 64mortality 45 to 64deaths 65 plusPopulation 65 Plusmortality 65 plusmaturation 14 to 15maturation 44 to 45maturation 64 to 65mortality 45 to 64 tablelife expectancymortality 65 plus tablemortality 0 to 14 tablemortality 15 to 44 table birthsinitial population 0 to 14initial population 15 to 44initial population 54 to 64initial population 65 plus.Population.Births&average industrial output per capita&income expectation averaging timebirth rate THOUSAND-Cpopulation equilibrium time deathstotal fertilityreproductive lifetime.completed multiplier from perceived lifetime<completed multiplier from perceived lifetime tableperceived life expectancy&delayed industrial output per capitasocial adjustment delay"desired completed family sizezero population growth time&desired completed family size normal"family response to social normsocial family size normaldesired total fertilityfamily income expectation&family response to social norm tablefecundity multiplierfecundity multiplier table*fertility control allocation per capita2fraction services allocated to fertility control"fertility control effectiveness&fertility control effectiveness time*fertility control effectiveness table*fertility control facilities per capitahealth services impact delay:fraction services allocated to fertility control tableneed for fertility controllifetime perception delaymaximum total fertility"maximum total fertility normal"social family size normal tableMIN.Population.Death&crowding multiplier from industry*crowding multiplier from industry tabledeath rate&effective health services per capitahealth services per capitafraction of population urban&fraction of population urban table"health services per capita tablelife expectancy normal"lifetime multiplier from food*lifetime multiplier from health services2lifetime multiplier from persistent pollution&lifetime multiplier from crowding&lifetime multiplier from food table.lifetime multiplier from health services 2.lifetime multiplier from health services 12lifetime multiplier from health services 1 table2lifetime multiplier from health services 2 table6lifetime multiplier from persistent pollution table.Resourcedesired resource use rate-Resource units"fraction of resources remainingNonrenewable Resources"initial nonrenewable resourcesresource usage rateresource use factor:fraction of capital allocated to obtaining resources 1>fraction of capital allocated to obtaining resources 1 table:fraction of capital allocated to obtaining resources 2>fraction of capital allocated to obtaining resources 2 tableresource use factor 1resource use fact 2.resource technology change rate multiplier*resource technology change mult table&per capita resource use mult table"resource technology change rateNfraction of industrial capital allocated to obtaining resources switch time.Supplementaryconsumed industrial output*consumed 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'¸¸•ܸ®¹%¸•¬¸®¹#¸•, ¸®¹#¸•l¸ ‡l*• ¹&¸®¹•¬ ¸®¹ %¸•ì ¸®¹ '¸•l‡'‡œ•ܹ&¸¦®Ga>‡œ'‡ì"•,¹&¸®¹•̸®¹ '¸•l‡Œ'‡œ‰¸šš±š&š&Gš$š'š±š œ‰¸šš±šš&š'š œ&š&Gš$š±š%šœ%œš&š'š œš&Gš$š±šœ%œš&š'š œ$š&Gš$š±šœ%œš&š'¦@@ œøºH¡7L¿''Ƚ&Internally defined simulation time.ê THE DYNAMICS OF GROWTH IN A FINITE WORLD Copyright © 1971-1992 Dennis L. Meadows et al Laboratory for Interactive Learning IPSSR - Hood House UNH Durham, NH 03825 603 862 2186 Fax 603 862 1488 e-mail:MEADOWS@UNHH.UNH.EDU AGRICULTURAL SECTOR6 LOOP 1: FOOD FROM INVESTMENT IN LAND DEVELOPMENT Arable land (AL#85).F The initial amount of land that is arable. (ALI#85.2).. Development cost per hectare (DCPH#97).Z Table relating undeveloped land to the cost of land development (DCPHT#97.1).. The total amount of usable food (F#87). Food per capita (FPC#88)& The land developmen rate (LDR#96).. Land fraction under cultivarion (LFC#84).* Land fraction harvested (LFH#87.1).f Fraction of industrial output allocated to agriculture before policy time (FIOAA1#94).‚ Table relating food per capita to the fraction of industrial output allocated to agriculture (FIOAA1T#94.1).b Fraction of industrial output allocated to agriculture after policy time (FIOAA2#95).‚ Table relating food per capita to the fraction of industrial output allocated to agriculture (FIOAA2T#95.1).F Indicated foord per capita befor policy time (IFPC1#90).^ Table relating industrial output to indicated food requirements 1 (IFPC1T#90.1).F Indicated foord per capita after policy time (IFPC1#90).^ Table relating industrial output to indicated food requirements 2 (IFPC1T#90.1).& POTENTIALLY ARABLE LAND (PAL#86).J The initial amount of potentially arable land (PALI#86.2).. POTENTIALLY ARABLE LAND TOTAL (PALT#84.1). PROCESSING LOSS (PL#87.2)R FRACTION OF INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT ALLOCATED TO AGRICULTURE (FIOAA#93).* Indicated food per capita (IFPC#89).* TOTAL AGRICULTURAL INVESTMENT (TAI#92): LOOP 2: FOOD FROM INVESTMENT IN AGRICULTURAL INPUTSAGRICULTURAL INPUTS (AI#99)6AVERAGE LIFETIME OF AGRICULTURAL INPUTS (ALAI#100). AGRICULTURAL INPUTS PER HECTARE (AIPH#101)* CURRENT AGRICULTURAL INPUTS (CAI#98)." desired food ratio (DFR#--)* INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT IN 1970 (IO70#107.2) LAND YIELD (LY#103)2 LAND YIELD MULTIPLIER FROM CAPITAL (LYMC#102)T Table relating agricultural inputs to land yeild (LYMCT#102.1).V The average life of agricultural inputs before policy time (ALAI1#100.1)V The average life of agricultural inputs after policy time (ALAI2#100.2)6 Land yield factor before policy year (LYF1#104.1).6 Land yield factor after policy year (LYF1#104.2).Z Land yield multiplier from air pollution before air poll time (LYMAP1#106).j Table relating non-persistent pollution from industry to agricultural output (LYMAPT#106.1).Z Land yield multiplier from air pollution after air poll time (LYMAP2#107).j Table relating non-persistent pollution from industry to agricultural output (LYMAPT#107.1).F Land yield from technology change multiplier (LYCM#--)f Table relating the food ratio gap to the change in agricultural technology (LYCMT#--)." Land Yield factor (LYF#104)B Land yield multiplier from air pollution (LYMAP#105).* Air Pollution switch time (ARPTM#--). LAND YIELD TECHNOLOGY INITIATED (LYTD#--)6 Land yield from technology change rate (LYTDR#--)2 LOOP 3: LAND EROSION AND URBAN-INDUSTRIAL USE& Average life of land (ALL#112).. AVERAGE LIFE OF LAND NORMAL (ALLN#112.1). Land erosion rate (LER#6 LAND REMOVAL FOR URBAN-INDUSTRIAL USE (LRUI#119).N Land life multiplier from yield before switch time (LLMY1#114).N Table relating yield to the effect on land life (LLMY1T#114.1).N Land life multiplier from yield after switch time (LLMY2#115).N Table relating yield to the effect on land life (LLMY2T#115.1).8 LAND LIFE MULTIPLIER FROM YIELD (LLMY#113).F Land life multiplier from yield switch time (LLMYTM#--)B Urban industrial land development time (UILDT#119.1).2 Urban industrial land per capita (UILPC#117).V Table relating industrial output to urban industrial land (UILPCT#117.1). Urban industrial land required (UILR#118).& URBAN-INDUSTRIAL LAND (UIL#120).2 URBAN-INDUSTRIAL LAND INITIAL (UILI#120.1).& LOOP4 : LAND FERTILITY DEGRADATION* LAND FERTILITY DEGRADATION (LFD#123).2 Land fertility degradation rate (LFDR#122).^ Table relating persistent pollution to land fertility degradation (LFDRT#122.1)." Land fertility (LFERT#121).* LAND FERTILITY INITIAL (LFERTI#121.2)* LOOP 5: LAND FERTILITY REGENERATION* INHERENT LAND FERTILITY (ILF#124.1).0 Land fertility regeneration (LFR#124).2 LAND FERTILITY REGENERATION TIME (LFRT#125)f Table relating inputs to land maintenance to land fertility regeneration (LFRTT#125.1).* LOOP 6: DISCONTINUING LAND MAINTENANCE"PERCEIVED FOOD RATIO (PFR#128). FOOD RATIO (FR#127)2 FOOD SHORTAGE PERCEPTION DELAY (FSPD#128.2)J FRACTION OF INPUTS ALLOCATED TO LAND MAINTENANCE (FALM#126).~ Table relating the perceived food ratio to the fraction of input used for land maintenance (FALMT#126.1).. Subsistence food per capita (SFPC#127.1).6 LOOPS 1 & 2: THE INVESTMENT ALLOCATION DECISIONN Fraction of inputs allocated to land devlelopment (FIALD#108). Table relating the marginal productivity of land to the fraction of inputs allocated to new land development (FIALDT#108.1).F MARGINAL LAND YIELD MULTIPLIER FROM CAPITAL (MLYMC#111).V Table relating agricultural inputs to marginal land yield (MLYMCT#111.1).F MARGINAL PRODUCTIVITY OF AGRICULTURAL INPUTS (MPAI#110).F The marginal productivity of land development (MPLD#109) SOCIAL DISCOUNT (SD#109.1) CAPITAL SECTOR INDUSTRIAL SUBSECTORN Fraction of industrial output allocated to industry (FIAOI#56).6 Industrial capital depreciation rate (ICDR#53).2 Industrial capital investment rate (ICIR#55).J Technology driven industrial capital output ratio (ICOR2T#--)V CAPITAL OUTPUT FROM RESOURCES technology multiplier TABLE (ICOR2TT#--)* INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT PER CAPITA (IOPC#49)6 Industrial output per capita desired (IOPCD#59.2). INDUSTRIAL CAPITAL (IC#52).* INDUSTRIAL CAPITAL INITIAL (ICI#52.1). Industrial output (IO#50)R Average life of industrial capital before policy year (ALIC1#54.1).N Average life of industrial capital after policy year (ALIC2#54.2)N Fraction of output allocated to consumption CONSTANT (FIAOCC#58).R Fraction of output allocated to consuption constant 1 (FIAOC1#58.1).R Fraction of output allocated to consuption constant 2 (FIAOC1#58.2).V Fraction industrial output allocated to consumption variable (FIAOCV#59)b Fraction of industrial output allocated to consumption variable TABLE (FIAOCVT#59.1)R Industrial capital output ratio prior to the policy year (ICOR1#51.1)P Industrial capital output ratio after the policy year (ICOR2#51.2)Z Pollution control technology multiplier for capital output ratio (COPM#--).b Table relating pollution correction technology to the capital output ratio (COPMT#--)6 AVERAGE LIFETIME OF INDUSTRIAL CAPITAL (ALIC#54).N Fraction of industrial output allocated to consumption (FIAOC#58). INDUSTRIAL CAPITAL-OUTPUT RATIO (ICOR#51). INDUSTRIAL EQUILIBRIUM TIME (IET#57.1).. CAPITAL OUTPUT YIELD MULTIPLIER (COYM#--)j Table relating the yield of technology to the effect on the capital output ratio (COYMT#--) JOB SUBSECTOR.LABOR UTILIZATION FRACTION DELAYED (LUFD#82)* CAPITAL UTILIZATION FRACTION (CUF#83)R Table relating labor utilization to capacity utilization (CUFT#83.2). JOBS (J#73).. Jobs per hectare in agriculture (JPH#79).~ Table relating agricultural input intensity to the number of jobs per hectare in agriculture (JPHT#79.1).2 Jobs per industrial capital units (JPICU#75).j Table relating industrial output per capita to job per industrial capital unit (JPICUT#75.1).. Jobs per service capital unit (JPSCU#77).f Table relating service output per capita to job per service capital unit (JPICUT#77.1). LABOR FORCE (LF#80).2 LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION FRACTION (LFPF#80.1)* Labor utilization fraction (LUF#81).6 Labor utilization fraction delay time (LUFDT#82.1): Potential jobs in the agricultural sector (PJAS#78).2 POTENTIAL JOBS IN INDUSTRIAL SECTOR (PKIS#74).6 Potential jobs in the service sector (PJSS#76). SERVICE SUBSECTORR Average lifetime of service capital before policy time (ALSC1#69.1).R Average lifetime of service capital after policy time (ALSC2#69.2).b FRACTION OF INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT ALLOCATED TO SERVICES before policy year (FIOAS1#64).~ Table relating service output to the fraction of industrial output allocated to service (FIOAS1T#64.1).b FRACTION OF INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT ALLOCATED TO SERVICES after policy year (FIOAS2#65).~ Table relating service output to the fraction of industrial output allocated to service (FIOAS2T#65.1).R Indicated service output per capita before policy year (ISOPC1#61).Ž Table relating industrial output per capita to the indicated service output per capita before policy year (ISOPC1T#61.1).R Indicated service output per capita after policy year (ISOPC2#621).Ž Table relating industrial output per capita to the indicated service output per capita afte policy year (ISOPC1T#62.1).J Service capital output ratio before policy year (SCOR1#72.1).J Service capital output ratio after policy year (SCOR1#72.1).2 AVERAGE LIFETIME OF SERVICE CAPITAL (ALSC#69)N FRACTION OF INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT ALLOCATED TO SERVICES (FIOAS#63).6 Indicated service output per capita (ISOPC#60).. Service capital output ratio (SCOR#72).2 SERVICE CAPITAL DEPRECIATION RATE (SCDR#68).. SERVICE CAPITAL INVESTMENT RATE (SCIR#66).* SERVICE OUTPUT PER CAPITA (SOPC#71). Service capital (SC#67).6 The initial level of service capital (SCI#67.2) Service output (SO#70)." CONTROL CARDS FOR SIMULATION* The time at which simulation stops.. The time at which the simulation begins.2 The frequency with which results are saved.L The time at which policies are implemented (PYEAR#150.1).* The time step for computing the model" PERSISTENT POLLUTION SECTOR6 Agricultural material toxicity index (AMTI#140.2).& ASSIMILATION HALF-LIFE (AHL#146).V Assimilation half life of persistent pollution int 1970 (AHL70#146.1).V Assimilation half life of multiplier of persistent pollution (AHLM#145)f Table relating the level of persisten pollution to its assimilation rate (AHLMT#145.1).2 Desires persistent pollution index (DPOLX#--).F Fraction of inputs as persistent materials (FIPM#140.1).J Fraction of resources as persistent materials (FRPM#139.1)6 Industrial materials toxicity index (IMTI#139.3)6 Industrial materials emission factor (IMEF#139.2).V Persistent pollution generation factor before policy time (PPGF1#138.1).V Persistent pollution generation factor after policy time (PPGF1#138.2).J POLLUTION CONTROL TECHNOLOGY CHANGE MULTIPLIER (POLGFM#--).Z Table relating persisten pollution to changes due to technology (POLGFMT#--).& Persistent pollution (PPOL#142).. persistent pollution initial (PPOLI#142.2N Persistent pollution generated by industrial output. (PPGIO#139)F Persistent pollution generated by agriculture (PPGAO#140)6 PERSISTENT POLLUTION GENERATION RATE (PPGR#137).6 Persistent pollution appearance rate (PPAPR#141): PERSISTENT POLLUTION ASSIMILATION RATE (PPASR#144).2 PERSISTENT POLLUTION IN 1970 (PPOL70#143.1).F Persistent pollution index relative to 1970 (PPOLX#143).6 Pollution control technology initiated (PTD#--)6 pollution control technology change rate (PTDR#--)B Persistent pollution transmission delay (PPTD#141.1).6 PERSISTENT POLLUTION GENERATED FACTOR (PPGF#138). POPULATION SECTORV The number of deaths per year among people 0 to 14 years of age (D1#3).V The number of deaths per year among people 15 to 44 years of age (D2#7).V The number of deaths per year among people 55 to 64 years of age (D3#11).N The number of deaths per year among people 65 and older (D4#15).f The fractional rate at which people aged 0-14 mature into the next age cohort (MAT1#5).f The fractional rate at which people aged 15-44 mature into the next age cohort (MAT2#9).f The fractional rate at which people aged 45-64 mature into the next age cohort (MAT3#13).J The fractional mortality rate for people aged 45-64 (M3#12).b The table relating average life to mortality in the 45 to 64 age group (M2T#12.1).F The fractional mortality rate for people over 65 (M4#16).f The table relating average life expectancy to mortality among people over 65 (M4T#16.1)J The fractional mortality rate for people aged 0-14 (M1#4).^ The table relating average life to mortality in the 0 to 14 age group (M1T#4.1).J The fractional mortality rate for people aged 15-44 (M2#8).^ The table relating average life to mortality in the 15 to 44 age group (M2T#8.1).& World population, AGES 0-14 (P1#2): The initial number of people aged 0 to 14 (P1I#2.2).* World population, AGES 15-44 (P2#6)B The initial number of people aged 15 to 44 (P2I#6.2).. The world population aged 0 to 14 (P3#10).F The initial number of people aged 45 to 64 (P3I#10.2).2 The world population aged 65 and over (P4#14).F The initial number of people aged 65 and over (P4I#14.2)6 Total world population in all age groups (POP#1). BIRTH RATE SUBSECTOR6 Average industrial output per capita (AIOPC#43).^ The crude birth rate measured in people per thousand people per year (CBR#31).6 The total number of births in the world (B#30).R COMPENSATORY MULTIPLIER FROM PERCEIVED LIFE EXPECTANCY (CMPLE#36).b Table relating perceived life expectancy to birth rate compensation (CMPLET#36.1).6 Delayed industrial output per capita (DIOPC#40).. Desired completed family size (DCFS#38)6 DESIRED COMPLETED FAMILY SIZE NORMAL (DCFSN#38.2).& DESIRED TOTAL FERTILITY (DTF#35).* Family income expectations (FIE#42).. FAMILY RESPONSE TO SOCIAL NORM (FRSN#41).R The table relating income expectations to family size (FRSNT#41.1)." FECUNDITY MULTIPLIER (FM#34).F Table relating life expectancy to fecundity (FMT#34.1).: FERTILITY CONTROL ALLOCATIONS PER CAPITA (FCAPC#47).. Fertility control effectiveness (FCE#45).6 Fertility control effectiveness table (FCET#45.2).: FERTILITY CONTROL FACILITIES PER CAPITA (FCFPC#46).N FRACTION OF SERVICES ALLOCATED TO FERTILITY CONTROL (FSAFC#48).b Table relating the need for fertility control to services allocated. (FSAFCT#48.1).2 Income expectation averaging time (IEAT#43.1)* Lifetime perception delay (LPD#37.1)& MAXIMUM TOTAL FERTILITY (MTF#33).† The normal maximum fertility that would be realized if people had sufficient food and perfect health. (MTFN#33)* NEED FOR FERTILITY CONTROL (NFC#44).& Perceived life expectancy (PLE#37): The number of years people can reproduce (RLT#30.1)& SOCIAL FAMILY SIZE NORM (SFN#39).J Table relating material well being to family size (SFNT#39.1)* SOCIAL ADJUSTMENT DELAY (SAD#40.1).F FERTILITY CONTROL EFFECTIVENESS SET TIME (FCEST#45.1).j The time at which, as a model test, the population is forced to remain constant. (PET#30.2)J TIME WHEN DESIRED FAMILY SIZE EQUALS 2 CHILDREN (ZPGT#38.1)* Units converted for /1000 rates (--). TOTAL FERTILITY (TF#32). DEATH RATE SUBSECTOR: CROWDING MULTIPLIER FROM INDUSTRIALIZATION (CMI#27).F Table relating industrial output to crowding (CMIT#27.1). CRUDE DEATH RATE (CDR#18)N The total number of deaths per year for all age groups (D#17).V Effective health services per capita - delayed from allocation (EHSPC#22)* FRACTION OF POPULATION URBAN (FPU#26).b Table relating population to the fraction of population that is urban (FPUT#26.1).6 Health services allocation per capita (HSAPC#21).R The table relating service output to health services (HSAPCT#21.1).b The delay between allocating health services, and realizing the benefit (HSID#22.1).r The normal life expectancy with subsistance food, no medical care and no industrialization (LEN#19.1)* The average life expectancy (LE#19).. LIFETIME MULTIPLIER FROM CROWDING (LMC#28)6 The life expectancy multiplier from food (LMF#20)f The table ralating relative food to the life expectancy multiplier for food (LMFT#20.1)N The life expectancy multiplier from health services (LMHS#23).Z The life expectancy multiplier from health services before 1940 (LMHS1#24).V Table relating effective health care to life expectancy (LMHS1T#24.1).^ The life expectancy multipier from health services value after 1940 (LMHS2#25).R Table relating effective health care to life expectancy (LMHS2T#25.1)F LIFETIME MULTIPLIER FROM PERSISTENT POLLUTION (LMP#29)R Table relating persistent pollution to life expectancy (LMPT#29.1) NONRENEWABLE RESOURCE SECTOR: Desired non-renewable resource usage rate (DNRUR#--)B Non-renewable resource fraction remaining (NRFR#133).2 Non-renewable resource use rate (NRUR#130).. NONRENEWABLE RESOURCE INITIAL (NR#129.2).& Non-renewable resource (NR#129)b Fraction of capital allocated to obtaining resources before switch time (FCAOR1#135).† Table relating the fraction of resources remaining to capital allocated to resource extraction (FCAOR1T#135.1).b Fraction of capital allocated to obtaining resources after switch time (FCAOR2#136).† Table relating the fraction of resources remaining to capital allocated to resource extraction (FCAOR2T#136.1).Z The nonrenewable resource usage factor before the policy year (NRUF1#131.1).Z The nonrenewable resource usage factor after the policy year (NRUF2#131.2).6 Resource technology change multiplier (NRCM#--)N Table relating resource use to technological change. (NRCMT#--)6 Per capita resource usage multiplier (PCRUM#132).Z Table relating industrial output to resource usage per capita (PCRUMT#132.1).2 Non-renewable resource technology (NRTD#--)6 RESOURCE TECHNOLOGY IMPROVEMENT RATE (NRATE-##).N FRACTION OF CAPITAL ALLOCATED TO OBTAINING RESOURCES (FCAOR#134).2 NONRENEWABLE RESOURCE USAGE FACTOR (NRUF#131).‚ Time at which to switch between alternative fraction of capital alocated to obtaining resources (FCAORTM#--).. The technology development delay (TDD#--) SUPPLEMENTARY EQUATIONS* Consumed industrial output (CIO#--).: Consumption Industrial Output per Capita (CIOPC#--)2 FRACTION OF OUTPUT IN AGRICULTURE (FAO#147)F Fraction of output that is industrial output (FOI#148).. FRACTION OF OUTPUT IN SERVICES (FOS#149).. pollution intensity indicator (PLINID#--).f The price of food used as a basis for comparing agricultural and industrial output. 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B BðB CHCpCŒC C´CÈCÜCðCD DD D*D4D>DHDRD\DfDpDzD€?@@@ @š™©@33³@Í̼@33Ã@33Ë@33Ó@ÍÌÜ@ffæ@ÍÌì@33ó@š™ù@A33AffAš™ AÍÌ AA33AffAš™AÍÌA A€?€?@@@€@ @€?= ·?À?À?À? A BpB BÈB€?ÍÌŒ?33³?ÍÌÌ?š™Ù?ffæ? A BpB BÈB€?À?33ó?@@@ A AðA BHBpBŒB B´BÈB€?¤p}?ìQx?33s?fff?š™Y?@?ff&?ÍÌ ?ÍÌÌ>ÍÌL> B BðB CHCpCŒC C´CÈCÜCðCD DDš™™=Âõ<Âuh=âé=ËÇ<¶ó}èÙ®Gá=ìQ¸=)\=Âu=ÍÌL= ×#=HCÈCDHDzD–D¯DÈDš™Y?ff&@š™Y@33s@33ƒ@ÍÌŒ@ff–@ @€¿€¿HCÈCDHD ?€?fff?ÍÌL?@?HCÈCDHDzD–D¯DÈD ×£;o<Âu<ÍÌÌ< ×#=®Ga=)\= ×£=ìQ¸=///---\\\ :GRAPH STATE_OF_WORLD :TITLE State of the World :X-DIV 2 :Y-DIV 1 :SCALE :VAR population :Y-MIN 0 :Y-MAX 1.3e+010 :LINE-WIDTH 3 :SCALE :VAR food :Y-MIN 0 :Y-MAX 6e+012 :SCALE :VAR industrial output :Y-MIN 0 :Y-MAX 4e+012 :SCALE :VAR persistent pollution index :Y-MIN 0 :Y-MAX 40 :SCALE :VAR nonrenewable resources :Y-MIN 0 :Y-MAX 2e+012 :GRAPH MATERIAL_STANDARD_LIVING :TITLE Material standard of living :X-DIV 2 :Y-DIV 1 :SCALE :VAR food per capita :Y-MIN 0 :Y-MAX 1000 :SCALE :VAR consumed industrial output per capita :Y-MIN 0 :Y-MAX 250 :SCALE :VAR service output per capita :Y-MIN 0 :Y-MAX 1000 :SCALE :VAR life expectancy :Y-MIN 0 :Y-MAX 90 :LINE-WIDTH 3 :REPORT COMM1 :TITLE COMM1 :FONT Times New Roman|10||0-0-0 The software you are using allows you to explore the behavior and sensitivity of the World3-91 model used in the book "Beyond the Limits," by Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows and Jørgen Randers. This model is based on the World3 model which is documented in detail in "The Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World," by Dennis Meadows et al. The World3-91 model contains a number of changes that allow different technological assumptions and assertions to be tested. The software allows you to explore the model by means of buttons, menus, and output screens. To activate a button, click on it. To select a menu item, you can click on it, type the first letter in the menu description, or select it using the up and down arrow keys and then press the Enter key. The selected menu item appears highlighted - usually black on white. Additional functionality available in the software is described in places where it can be used. To conserve space, later commentaries will be kept small, and you will need to scroll them to read all the information they contain. :END-OF-REPORT :REPORT COMM2 :TITLE COMM2 :FONT Times New Roman|10||0-0-0 Anything you type will appear as the name of the scenario. You can change any constants or lookup tables in the model. The values that have been changed in "Beyond the Limits" can be accessed through through the first three change buttons. Any Constant in the model (including those in the first three buttons) can be changed using the constants button. The Table functions in the model can be changed using the tables button. Table (or Lookup) functions are nonlinear relationships relating an input to an output. The lookup table editor is graphically oriented. You can drag points around, or click where you would like new points to appear. The Escape key is used to back out of dialog boxes, without recording changes, and after one, two, or at most three times will return you to this screen. When you click on Run the scenario, your scenario will be run using the changes you have entered. After your scenario runs you will see a graph that has the same structure as the "State of the World" graphs shown in "Beyond the Limits," but showing values for the assumptions you have made. If you have based your scenario on one of the predefined scenarios, and not changed any assumptions, the graph should match the corresponding graph in the book. :END-OF-REPORT :REPORT COMM3 :TITLE COMM3 :FONT Times New Roman|10||0-0-0 You can perform analysis of the model by first loading in scenarios of interest, and then reviewing the output or doing causal tracing. Scenarios that you have run are automatically loaded for analysis. The Load and reorder command will put up a small window with two lists. On the left is a list of loaded scenarios, on the right a list of scenarios that have been run. The << button loads scenarios. Click on the scenario you want to load in the right hand list, and then click the << button. The >> button unloads scenarios. Click on the scenario you want to unload in the left hand list, and the click on the >> button. You can load up to 8 scenarios at a time, but it is difficult to read graphs with more than 4 scenarios loaded. If the list on the right is empty, you will need to run some scenarios. Exit back to the Main Menu and do this. You can run the scenarios described in "Beyond the Limits" by choosing one of the named scenarios as base for your scenario, and running the scenario without making any additional changes. The two graphs used to review scenarios throughout "Beyond the Limits" can be accessed for the first loaded scenario by clicking the buttons State of the world or Material standard of living. Causal tracing is a process that allows you to determine the underlying causes of behavior, and the differences in behavior between different scenarios. There are two options for doing causal tracing. The first uses tree diagrams and single graphs. The second uses equations and multiple graphs. Try them both to see which you prefer. :END-OF-REPORT :REPORT COMM4 :TITLE COMM4 :FONT Times New Roman|10||0-0-0 The cause and use screens show lists of different variables. The graphs allow you to compare different scenarios. The trees allow you to investigate the structure of the model. To view the causes, graphs, or uses of a variable, double click on its name anywhere it appears: in the graphs, trees, or documentation. You can select a new working variable to trace by clicking on the button Select a new variable to trace. You can print the contents of the graphs and trees by clicking on Print, or pressing P. Output will be directed to your default printer. During causal tracing, you can switch between the Tree and Graph represen- tations of causes. This can be useful as means of understanding both structure and behavior. :END-OF-REPORT :REPORT COMM5 :TITLE COMM5 :FONT Times New Roman|10||0-0-0 Use the Tab key or mouse to move between the number entry and table positions. To change the lookup tables, click the appropriate table, and modify it graphically by dragging points around, or type in new XY pairs. Changes you make to tables are recorded when you click OK on the table changing window. Changes you make to constants are recorded when you click the button Record constant changes. You can exit without recording any changes you made by clicking on the Exit without recording... button. :END-OF-REPORT :GRAPH WIP_STATE_OF_WORLD :TITLE State of the World :WIP :X-DIV 2 :Y-DIV 1 :X-MIN 1900 :X-MAX 2100 :MAX-POINTS 200 :SCALE :VAR population :Y-MIN 0 :Y-MAX 1.3e+010 :LINE-WIDTH 3 :SCALE :VAR food :Y-MIN 0 :Y-MAX 6e+012 :SCALE :VAR industrial output :Y-MIN 0 :Y-MAX 4e+012 :SCALE :VAR persistent pollution index :Y-MIN 0 :Y-MAX 40 :SCALE :VAR Nonrenewable Resources :Y-MIN 0 :Y-MAX 2e+012 :L<%^E!@ 8:wrld3-91.vgd 9:SCEN06 15:0,0,0,0 19:100,0 4:Time 5:population