:GRAPH STATE_OF_WORLD :TITLE State of the World :X-DIV 2 :Y-DIV 1 :SCALE :VAR population :Y-MIN 0 :Y-MAX 1.3e+010 :LINE-WIDTH 3 :SCALE :VAR food :Y-MIN 0 :Y-MAX 6e+012 :SCALE :VAR industrial output :Y-MIN 0 :Y-MAX 4e+012 :SCALE :VAR persistent pollution index :Y-MIN 0 :Y-MAX 40 :SCALE :VAR nonrenewable resources :Y-MIN 0 :Y-MAX 2e+012 :GRAPH MATERIAL_STANDARD_LIVING :TITLE Material standard of living :X-DIV 2 :Y-DIV 1 :SCALE :VAR food per capita :Y-MIN 0 :Y-MAX 1000 :SCALE :VAR consumed industrial output per capita :Y-MIN 0 :Y-MAX 250 :SCALE :VAR service output per capita :Y-MIN 0 :Y-MAX 1000 :SCALE :VAR life expectancy :Y-MIN 0 :Y-MAX 90 :LINE-WIDTH 3 :REPORT COMM1 :TITLE COMM1 :FONT Times New Roman|10||0-0-0 The software you are using allows you to explore the behavior and sensitivity of the World3-91 model used in the book "Beyond the Limits," by Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows and Jørgen Randers. This model is based on the World3 model which is documented in detail in "The Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World," by Dennis Meadows et al. The World3-91 model contains a number of changes that allow different technological assumptions and assertions to be tested. The software allows you to explore the model by means of buttons, menus, and output screens. To activate a button, click on it. To select a menu item, you can click on it, type the first letter in the menu description, or select it using the up and down arrow keys and then press the Enter key. The selected menu item appears highlighted - usually black on white. Additional functionality available in the software is described in places where it can be used. To conserve space, later commentaries will be kept small, and you will need to scroll them to read all the information they contain. :END-OF-REPORT :REPORT COMM2 :TITLE COMM2 :FONT Times New Roman|10||0-0-0 Anything you type will appear as the name of the scenario. You can change any constants or lookup tables in the model. The values that have been changed in "Beyond the Limits" can be accessed through through the first three change buttons. Any Constant in the model (including those in the first three buttons) can be changed using the constants button. The Table functions in the model can be changed using the tables button. Table (or Lookup) functions are nonlinear relationships relating an input to an output. The lookup table editor is graphically oriented. You can drag points around, or click where you would like new points to appear. The Escape key is used to back out of dialog boxes, without recording changes, and after one, two, or at most three times will return you to this screen. When you click on Run the scenario, your scenario will be run using the changes you have entered. After your scenario runs you will see a graph that has the same structure as the "State of the World" graphs shown in "Beyond the Limits," but showing values for the assumptions you have made. If you have based your scenario on one of the predefined scenarios, and not changed any assumptions, the graph should match the corresponding graph in the book. :END-OF-REPORT :REPORT COMM3 :TITLE COMM3 :FONT Times New Roman|10||0-0-0 You can perform analysis of the model by first loading in scenarios of interest, and then reviewing the output or doing causal tracing. Scenarios that you have run are automatically loaded for analysis. The Load and reorder command will put up a small window with two lists. On the left is a list of loaded scenarios, on the right a list of scenarios that have been run. The << button loads scenarios. Click on the scenario you want to load in the right hand list, and then click the << button. The >> button unloads scenarios. Click on the scenario you want to unload in the left hand list, and the click on the >> button. You can load up to 8 scenarios at a time, but it is difficult to read graphs with more than 4 scenarios loaded. If the list on the right is empty, you will need to run some scenarios. Exit back to the Main Menu and do this. You can run the scenarios described in "Beyond the Limits" by choosing one of the named scenarios as base for your scenario, and running the scenario without making any additional changes. The two graphs used to review scenarios throughout "Beyond the Limits" can be accessed for the first loaded scenario by clicking the buttons State of the world or Material standard of living. Causal tracing is a process that allows you to determine the underlying causes of behavior, and the differences in behavior between different scenarios. There are two options for doing causal tracing. The first uses tree diagrams and single graphs. The second uses equations and multiple graphs. Try them both to see which you prefer. :END-OF-REPORT :REPORT COMM4 :TITLE COMM4 :FONT Times New Roman|10||0-0-0 The cause and use screens show lists of different variables. The graphs allow you to compare different scenarios. The trees allow you to investigate the structure of the model. To view the causes, graphs, or uses of a variable, double click on its name anywhere it appears: in the graphs, trees, or documentation. You can select a new working variable to trace by clicking on the button Select a new variable to trace. You can print the contents of the graphs and trees by clicking on Print, or pressing P. Output will be directed to your default printer. During causal tracing, you can switch between the Tree and Graph represen- tations of causes. This can be useful as means of understanding both structure and behavior. :END-OF-REPORT :REPORT COMM5 :TITLE COMM5 :FONT Times New Roman|10||0-0-0 Use the Tab key or mouse to move between the number entry and table positions. To change the lookup tables, click the appropriate table, and modify it graphically by dragging points around, or type in new XY pairs. Changes you make to tables are recorded when you click OK on the table changing window. Changes you make to constants are recorded when you click the button Record constant changes. You can exit without recording any changes you made by clicking on the Exit without recording... button. :END-OF-REPORT :GRAPH WIP_STATE_OF_WORLD :TITLE State of the World :WIP :X-DIV 2 :Y-DIV 1 :X-MIN 1900 :X-MAX 2100 :MAX-POINTS 200 :SCALE :VAR population :Y-MIN 0 :Y-MAX 1.3e+010 :LINE-WIDTH 3 :SCALE :VAR food :Y-MIN 0 :Y-MAX 6e+012 :SCALE :VAR industrial output :Y-MIN 0 :Y-MAX 4e+012 :SCALE :VAR persistent pollution index :Y-MIN 0 :Y-MAX 40 :SCALE :VAR Nonrenewable Resources :Y-MIN 0 :Y-MAX 2e+012