:MACRO: P EXP(input) P EXP = EXP(MAX(-50,MIN(50,input))) ~ input ~ Exponentiation protected against over/underflow | :END OF MACRO: :MACRO: SSHAPE(input) SSHAPE = EXP(MAX(-50,MIN(50,input)))/(1+EXP(MAX(-50,MIN(50,input)))) ~ dmnl ~ Exponential s-shaped curve; -infinity -> 0, 0 -> .5, infinity -> 1 | :END OF MACRO: Effective Natural Capital= MIN(Natural Capital Upper Bound,MAX(Natural Capital Lower Bound,Natural Capital)) ~ NKU ~ | Natural Capital Lower Bound= 1e-005 ~ NKU ~ | Natural Capital Upper Bound= 0.9999 ~ NKU ~ | ******************************************************** .Output ********************************************************~ | Contraction Rate= 0.1 ~ 1/year ~ eta Contraction rate when natural capital = 0 | Output Growth Rate= Growth Rate-(Growth Rate+Contraction Rate)*(1-Effective Natural Capital)^Contraction Nonlin ~ 1/year ~ | Contraction Nonlin = 2 ~ dmnl ~ lambda | Growth Rate = 0.04 ~ 1/year ~ gamma Growth rate when natural capital = 1 | Net per Capita Output = Output per Capita-Pollution Control ~ $/person/year ~ ybar | Output Net Change Rate = Output per Capita*Output Growth Rate ~ $/person/year/year ~ | Output per Capita = INTEG(Output Net Change Rate,1) ~ $/person/year ~ y(t) | ******************************************************** .NaturalCapital ********************************************************~ | Natural Capital Net Change Rate= Regeneration Rate*Effective Natural Capital*(1-Effective Natural Capital) ~ NKU/year ~ | Cleansing Flow= Cleansing Rate/Regen Coeff*Effective Natural Capital^Cleansing Coeff ~ PU/year ~ | Cleansing Coeff = 2 ~ dmnl ~ rho | Cleansing Rate = 1 ~ dmnl ~ delta | Natural Capital = INTEG(Natural Capital Net Change Rate,0.98) ~ NKU ~ z(t) | Normal Regen Rate = 1 ~ 1/NKU/year ~ nu | Regen Coeff = 0.1 ~ 1/PU*year ~ omega | Regeneration Rate = Normal Regen Rate*(P EXP(Regen Coeff*(Cleansing Flow-Net Pollution Flow\ ))-1) ~ 1/NKU/year ~ | ******************************************************** .Population ********************************************************~ | Envir Effect Death= 1+Envir Death Scale*MAX(0.01,1-Effective Natural Capital)^Envir Death Nonlin ~ dmnl ~ MIN added to prevent floating point error. | Birth Coeff 1 = 0.04 ~ 1/year ~ beta1 | Birth Coeff 2 = 1.375 ~ dmnl ~ beta2 | Birth Income Effect = 0.16 ~ 1/$*person*year ~ beta | Birth Rate = Birth Coeff 1*(Birth Coeff 2-SSHAPE(Birth Income Effect*Net per Capita Output\ )) ~ 1/year ~ | Births = Birth Rate*Population ~ people/year ~ | Death Coeff 1 = 0.01 ~ 1/year ~ delta1 | Death Coeff 2 = 2.5 ~ dmnl ~ delta2 | Death Income Effect = 0.18 ~ 1/$*person*year ~ alpha | Death Rate = Normal Death Rate*Envir Effect Death ~ 1/year ~ | Deaths = Population*Death Rate ~ people/year ~ | Envir Death Nonlin = 15 ~ dmnl ~ upsilon | Envir Death Scale = 4 ~ dmnl ~ delta3 | Normal Death Rate = Death Coeff 1*(Death Coeff 2-SSHAPE(Death Income Effect*Net per Capita Output\ )) ~ 1/year ~ | Population = INTEG(Births-Deaths,1) ~ people ~ x(t) | ******************************************************** .Pollution ********************************************************~ | Pollution Control= Control Scale*(1-Effective Natural Capital)^Control Nonlin*Output per Capita ~ $/person/year ~ c(y,z) | Abatement Coeff = 2 ~ PU/year ~ kappa | Control Effect = 0.02 ~ 1/$*year ~ epsilon | Control Nonlin = 2 ~ dmnl ~ mu | Control Scale = 0.5 ~ dmnl ~ j | Net Pollution Flow = Pollution Output-Pollution Abatement ~ PU/year ~ f(x,y,z,p) | Pollution Abatement = Abatement Coeff*(SSHAPE(Control Effect*Pollution Control*Population\ )-0.5) ~ PU/year ~ | Pollution Change Rate = -0.03 ~ 1/year ~ chi | Pollution Intensity Change Rate = Pollution per Unit Output*Pollution Change Rate ~ PU/$/year ~ chi | Pollution Output = Population*Output per Capita*Pollution per Unit Output ~ PU/year ~ | Pollution per Unit Output = INTEG(Pollution Intensity Change Rate,1) ~ PU/$ ~ p(t) | ******************************************************** .Control ********************************************************~ Simulation Control Paramaters | FINAL TIME = 300 ~ year ~ The final time for the simulation. | INITIAL TIME = 0 ~ year ~ The initial time for the simulation. | SAVEPER = TIME STEP ~ year ~ The frequency with which output is stored. | TIME STEP = 0.5 ~ year ~ The time step for the simulation. | \\\---/// Sketch information - do not modify anything except names V300 Do not put anything below this section - it will be ignored *View 1 $0,0,Times New Roman|12||0-0-0|0-0-0|0-0-0|-1--1--1|-1--1--1|96,96 10,1,Population,366,121,40,20,3,3,0,2,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||128-0-255 12,2,48,518,120,8,8,0,3,0,2,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||128-0-255 11,3,48,473,121,5,8,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0 10,4,Births,473,137,20,11,32,3,0,2,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||128-0-255 12,5,48,191,122,8,8,0,3,0,2,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||128-0-255 11,6,48,253,120,5,8,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0 10,7,Deaths,253,136,23,11,32,3,0,2,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||128-0-255 10,8,Output per Capita,378,322,40,20,3,3,0,2,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||255-0-0 12,9,48,162,320,8,8,0,3,0,2,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||255-0-0 11,10,48,261,319,5,8,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0 10,11,Output Net Change Rate,261,335,78,11,32,3,0,2,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||255-0-0 10,12,Natural Capital,275,469,40,20,3,3,0,2,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||0-128-0 12,13,48,512,470,8,8,0,3,0,2,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||0-128-0 11,14,48,423,469,5,8,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0 10,15,Natural Capital Net Change Rate,423,488,103,11,32,3,0,2,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||0-128-0 10,16,Pollution per Unit Output,796,280,40,20,3,3,0,2,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||128-64-0 12,17,48,1000,297,8,8,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 11,18,48,938,279,5,8,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0 10,19,Pollution Intensity Change Rate,938,295,96,11,32,3,0,2,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||128-64-0 10,20,Pollution Control,505,322,53,11,0,3,0,2,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||128-64-0 10,21,Net per Capita Output,434,256,71,11,0,3,0,2,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||255-0-0 10,22,Net Pollution Flow,694,379,59,11,0,3,0,2,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||128-64-0 10,23,Death Rate,171,184,36,11,0,3,0,2,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||128-0-255 10,24,Birth Rate,503,196,33,11,0,3,0,2,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||128-0-255 10,25,Cleansing Flow,490,542,49,11,0,3,0,2,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||0-128-0 10,26,Regeneration Rate,641,435,58,11,0,3,0,2,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||0-128-0 10,27,Normal Regen Rate,782,438,62,11,0,3,0,2,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||0-128-0 10,28,Regen Coeff,674,524,40,11,0,3,0,2,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||0-128-0 10,29,Cleansing Coeff,571,572,50,11,0,3,0,2,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||0-128-0 10,30,Cleansing Rate,420,575,47,11,0,3,0,2,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||0-128-0 10,31,Pollution Output,701,228,51,11,0,3,0,2,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||128-64-0 10,32,Pollution Abatement,639,318,63,11,0,3,0,2,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||128-64-0 10,33,Abatement Coeff,565,286,54,11,0,3,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-64-0 10,34,Control Effect,585,362,45,11,0,3,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-64-0 10,35,Control Nonlin,535,402,47,11,0,3,0,2,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||128-64-0 10,36,Control Scale,489,383,44,11,0,3,0,2,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||128-64-0 10,37,Output Growth Rate,269,368,64,11,0,3,0,2,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||255-0-0 10,38,Growth Rate,309,398,41,11,0,3,0,2,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||255-0-0 10,39,Contraction Rate,169,398,54,11,0,3,0,2,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||255-0-0 10,40,Contraction Nonlin,239,418,60,11,0,3,0,2,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||255-0-0 10,41,Envir Effect Death,118,277,57,11,0,3,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-0-255 10,42,Normal Death Rate,270,220,61,11,0,3,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-0-255 10,43,Death Coeff 1,192,250,45,11,0,3,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-0-255 10,44,Death Coeff 2,235,264,45,11,0,3,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-0-255 10,45,Death Income Effect,286,282,64,11,0,3,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-0-255 10,46,Envir Death Nonlin,-1,318,60,11,0,3,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-0-255 10,47,Envir Death Scale,39,358,56,11,0,3,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-0-255 10,48,Birth Coeff 1,381,196,42,11,0,3,0,2,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||128-0-255 10,49,Birth Coeff 2,401,179,42,11,0,3,0,2,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||128-0-255 10,50,Birth Income Effect,397,214,61,11,0,3,0,2,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||128-0-255 10,51,Pollution Change Rate,953,349,69,11,0,3,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-64-0 1,52,3,1,4,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(437,121)| 1,53,3,2,100,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(494,121)| 1,54,6,5,4,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(223,120)| 1,55,6,1,100,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(292,120)| 1,56,10,8,4,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(302,319)| 1,57,10,9,68,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(213,319)| 1,58,14,12,4,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(366,469)| 1,59,14,13,68,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(466,469)| 1,60,18,16,4,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(884,279)| 1,61,18,17,68,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(1000,279)| 1,62,8,20,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(428,322)| 1,63,8,21,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(397,279)| 1,64,20,21,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(485,286)| 1,65,1,4,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(425,140)| 1,66,1,7,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(303,142)| 1,67,21,24,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(474,229)| 1,68,24,4,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(499,165)| 1,69,23,7,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(210,149)| 1,70,22,26,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(677,407)| 1,71,25,26,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(574,504)| 1,72,26,15,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(556,475)| 1,73,27,26,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(716,436)| 1,74,28,26,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(659,486)| 1,75,28,25,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(593,531)| 1,76,29,25,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(537,559)| 1,77,30,25,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(448,561)| 1,78,1,31,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(549,96)| 1,79,8,31,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(536,260)| 1,80,16,31,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(776,245)| 1,81,31,22,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(717,294)| 1,82,20,32,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(560,320)| 1,83,32,22,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(673,342)| 1,84,33,32,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(595,299)| 1,85,34,32,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(606,344)| 1,86,1,32,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(609,173)| 1,87,35,20,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(522,368)| 1,88,36,20,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(494,359)| 1,89,37,11,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(267,358)| 1,90,8,11,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(340,350)| 1,91,39,37,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(211,384)| 1,92,38,37,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(294,386)| 1,93,40,37,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(249,398)| 1,94,41,23,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(132,233)| 1,95,42,23,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(227,204)| 1,96,43,42,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(223,237)| 1,97,44,42,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(247,247)| 1,98,45,42,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(280,257)| 1,99,21,42,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(358,239)| 1,100,46,41,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(51,299)| 1,101,47,41,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(73,322)| 1,102,48,24,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(439,196)| 1,103,49,24,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(449,186)| 1,104,50,24,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(457,204)| 1,105,16,19,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(842,313)| 1,106,51,19,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(947,328)| 10,107,Effective Natural Capital,139,468,76,11,0,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 10,108,Natural Capital Upper Bound,79,548,92,11,0,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 10,109,Natural Capital Lower Bound,189,578,92,11,0,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 1,110,108,107,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(104,513)| 1,111,109,107,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(166,529)| 1,112,12,107,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(231,468)| 1,113,107,15,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(329,518)| 1,114,107,25,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(287,545)| 1,115,107,41,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(103,355)| 1,116,107,20,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(361,405)| 1,117,107,37,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(197,422)| 12,118,0,326,14,156,11,0,4,0,0,-1,0,0,0 Wonderland Model by Warren C. Sanderson et al. 12,119,0,330,70,240,11,0,4,0,0,-1,0,0,0 Replicated in Vensim by Tom Fiddaman, Ventana Systems, tom@Vensim.com 12,120,0,350,40,375,11,0,4,0,0,-1,0,0,0 From Alexandra Milik et al., "Slow-fast Dynamics in Wonderland," Environmental Modeling and Assessment 1 (1996) 3-17 ///---\\\ :GRAPH NATURAL_CAPITAL :TITLE Natural Capital :SCALE :VAR Effective Natural Capital :SCALE :VAR Cleansing Flow :VAR Net Pollution Flow :SCALE :VAR Regeneration Rate :L<%^E!@ 1:nm.vdf 1:Nightmare2.vdf 9:nm 22:$,Dollar,Dollars,$s 22:Day,Days 22:dmnl,NKU 22:Hour,Hours 22:Month,Months 22:Person,People,Persons 22:Unit,Units 22:Week,Weeks 22:Year,Years 15:0,0,0,1 19:100,0 4:Time 5:Effective Natural Capital