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.MassAnn Cos LaborHourly WageNorm MHPYCapital on OrderOrders for CapitalOrders FilledCapital DepnCapital DDCapital ArrivalsAnn Cost Cap UnitPrice of CapitalInterest RateNorm Cap LifeAvg Cap IntCh in ACICap IntensityAvg Dur of EmployNorm Dur of EmployMult LD on Dur EmployAvg Labor IntensityCh in ALILabor IntensityAvg New Vac Creation Ch ANVC laborAvg Orders for Capital Ch AOFCAvg PriceCh in Avg PriceCurrent PriceAvg Prod RateCh in APRNor Prod RateAvg Prop to ConsumeAvg Real Cons IncCh in ARCIreal cons incAvg Rel Len WWCh in ARLWWrel len wwAvg Unit Cost of ProdCh in AUCP WAGESInventoryBack Mult for ShipBack Mult for Ship LOOKUPBacklog Ratio BacklogConsumptionShipment RateDesired BacklogCap Int Ind FCMult FCCI CapitalCap Ut FactorCap Ut Factor LOOKUPProd Ratioinit capitalCapital Avg LifetimeMult CDLCCapital RatioDesired CapitalNew Vac Creation TTANVC TTAOFCTACI TTALIProduction RateTime to CAPR TTARCI TTARLWWUnit Costs of ProdTime to AUCPTime to Avg PriceCh in PRIIPRate of Inc in Avg PricePerc Rate of Inc in PriceTime to PRIIPCh in SAPSmoothed Avg PriceTime to Smooth APCons Ext IncConst Cons RateConst Pr of CapitalInit LaborConsumption from Income Switch 4Test Consumption Noise 2Norm Profit MarginMult Des Prod on ProfDD for GoodsShipmentsDel Fill VacDes Capital Intensity Switch 3Norm Cap IntDes Capital on OrderDes InventoryNorm Inv Cover Switch 2Mult Pr ExpDes LaborDesired ProductionDes Labor IntensityMult Grwth in Des LaborLI from Factor CostsNorm Lab IntensityDes VacanciesNorm Bac CoverMult Grow Des CapTTC Inv and BackEffective CapitalEffective LaborExp Grth in ProdExternal IncomeInput Pattern 2Hire RateVacanciesHiringInd Cap CorrectionTTACInd Vac CorrectTime to Adj LaborInput Pattern 1stepInv Carrying CostsInv Mult for ShipInv Mult for Ship LOOKUPInventory RatioTerminatingLabor ExpLabor RatioMult FCLIManhours PYMLD on OvertimeMLD on Overtime LOOKUPMult CDLC LOOKUPMult CDOOFCMult CDOOFC LOOKUPRel Des OrdersMult Des Prod on Prof LOOKUPMult FCCI LOOKUPRel Ret on CapMult FCLI LOOKUPMult LD on Dur Employ LOOKUPMult LD on Orders for Labor&Mult LD on Orders for Labor LOOKUPRel Des Orders for LaborMult on Lab ProdMult Overtime in LPMult Prod Press on LPMult Overtime in LP LOOKUPMult Pr Exp LOOKUPMult Prod Press on LP LOOKUP Rel DDNoise 1NormZ Eff CapitalNormZ Eff LaborOvertime PremiumOvertime Wagesmax Switch 1expRel Cost of Cap Rel MPC¤¡7L¿ ‡¡7L¿È¡7L¿È¡7L¿ÏÏd  ü¬ì l<Œ¬ lÜ Œ Œ¬|¼ L¼¼ìì<ì|LŒ<Üü,, \œ¬ŒŒ¬|<Œ¬œ¬Ì,¼,ŒÌL ,üܬ\üL|,\œü¬ìL|Œ¼ü<l¼Ì|ŒÜ | Œ\,œL<Ül ,l¼¬<ŒL,œLœ ¬ ü¬\ <,LÌüÌ lŒ  üÌœ üL|¬ l<ü\Lü¬<Œ¼L<¬Ü¼ ,Ül Ì  ì,lüü ìLÌ <lÌ , < l| l œlü l œ,Ìì¬ì ü , ì| < <,ü¬ìÌ|üì| ¬\lüÌ,,ì|LÌü, Ì <œüüLüülÌ ll\,< l¼Üì|lìü¼ < l ì ,ܼ   ¼||ܬ|Œüì|¬L̬L̬l\Œ¼ìl¬|L <lü,<\lLÜ <40ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Times New RomandTitle63ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Times New Roman~Goods85ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Times New Roman dOvertime:7ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Times New Roman/dConsumption>9ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Times New RomanCapitalB<ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Times New RomansLaborD?ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Times New RomanXdPrice ExpectationsGCÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Times New Roman"dFactor Costs 9H¡7L¿ÍÍÈO¾º †¾"ÿReplicated by Scott Rockart and Liz Krahmer, MIT, from: Mass, N. J. (1975). Economic Cycles: An Analysis of Underlying Causes. Cambridge MA: Productivity Press. 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¸&¸¦€?•L¸&¸¦€?•̸&¸¦7J•œ¸&¸¦ÍÌL>•̸&¸•\'•Ì•Œ¸&¸¦pA•ܸ&¸¦@•ü¸&¸¦?•|¸&¸• '•Ì•ì¸&¸¦E•\¸&¸¦ÍÌÌ=•œ ¸&¸•Ì'•\•¬ ¸&¸•Ü'• •¸&¸•ü'•<• ¸&¸•\%•l •¼ ¸&¸¦š™™>:•Ì ¸&¸•Ü ¦±•L%•Ü%•¼ %•, $•알¸&¸G•l±¸¦•l¸&¸•ü•L¸&¸•<'•¬Ž•ü¸&¸•ì %• %•Ì%•¬ (•ü®%•œ (¦€?$•ü%•Œ #¦€?$•ì %•Œ %•Ì%•¬ ®(•ü%•œ (•ü ¦€?$•ü*•|¸&¸•|$•¼'•¼%•Ì®• ¸&¸•l#•ü'•œ• ¸&¸•\'•Ì•| ¸&¸•|'•œ•Œ ¸&¸•\#•L'•\• ¸&¸•,#•l'•,•<¸&¸•, '•ì• ¸&¸•L'••¼ ¸&¸• '• •ܸ&¸•Œ•Œ¸&¸•¬%•Œ%•¼•¼¸&¸G•¬±¸•|•ì ¸&¸¦• ¸&¸¦•¼¸&¸¦•,¸&¸¦•ܸ&¸¦pA•ì¸&¸•L'•Ì•<¸&¸•ì#•Œ•|¸&¸¦?•L¸&¸¦€?•\¸&¸¦Ãõ¨>• ¸&¸¦€?•œ¸&¸¦À?•̸&¸¦Ãõ¨>•\¸&¸¦€@•ì¸&¸¦pA•¼¸&¸¦?•̸&¸¦€@•¸&¸¦ @•,¸&¸¦Ãõ¨>•¼¸&¸¦ÍÌL?•<¸&¸•l#•¬'•¬2•,¸&¸G•¬¸$¸•±¸•L'•Ü%•œ®"•l¸&¸•L%•, %•Ü#•Ì •œ&¦€<•|&¦•Œ&¦ A•¬&•œ\H¡7L¿Ž Ž Èw &Internally defined simulation time.j Average cost per labor unit is te hourly wage multiplied by the normal man hours (dollars/man/year).z Capital on Order is initialized to equal the delivery delay on capital times the capital depreciation (capital units).> Capital arrivals equal orders filled (capital units/year).ª Annual cost of capital unit is the price of a capital unit multiplied by the interest rate and divided by the normal capital lifetime (dollars/ capital unit/year)¦ Average duration of employment is determined by the normal duration of employment multiplied by the multiplier of labor demand on duration of employment (years).6 Average New Vacancy Creatin measured in men/year.b Average Orders for Capital are initialized equal to capital depreciation (capital units/year).. Average Price is measured in dollars/unit.B Average propensity to consume is set equal to 90% of income.f Average Real Consumer Income is initialiezed at real consumer income and is measured in units/year.: Average Relative Length of Work Week is dimensionless.Ž Average Unit Cost of Production are composed of wages and inventory carrying costs averaged by the average production rate (dollars/unit).6 Backlog Multiplier for Shipments (dimensionless)6 Backlog Multiplier for Shipments (dimensionless)¾ Capital Intensity Indicated by factor cost is determined by average capital intensity multiplied by the multiplier for facotr cost on capital intensity (capital units/output units/year).| Capital intensity is determined by capital divided by the average production rate (capital units/output unit/year).Z The capacity utilizaton factor is a function of the production ratio (dimensionless).Z The capacity utilizaton factor is a function of the production ratio (dimensionless).6 Capital is initially set at 7.5e6 (capital units).– Average Lifetime of Capital is determined by the normal capital life multiplied by the multiplier of capital demand on lifetime of capital (years)j Capital Depreciation is calculated by dividing capital by capital average lifetime (capital units/year)J Capital ratio is capital divided by desired capital (dimensionless).Æ Change in average orders for capital is driven by the gap between orders for capital and the current average stock of orders for capital and smoothed over the time to average orders for capital.¶ Change in Average Capital Intensity is driven by the gap between actual capital intensity and average capital intensity and smoothed over the time to average capital intensity.& Change in Average Labor IntensityF Change in Average Real Consumer Income is measured in units/year.z Average Unit costs of production is a one-year exponential average of actual unit costs of production (dollars/unit).V Constant consumption rate is set equal to the normal production rate. (units/year)B Constant Price of Capital is measured in dollars/capital unit. Through the use of switch 4, consumption can be switched between an endogenous definition (consumption from income with switch is on) or exogenous definition (test consumption). (units/year).~ Consumption from Income is based on the average propensity to consume, the average real consumption of income and noise.J Delivery Delay for Goods equals backlog divided by shipments (years).B Delay in Filing Vacancies is set equal to .25 years. (years)v Desired capital on order is the average orders ofr cpaitaltimes othe delivery delay for capital (capital units).& Desired Vacancies measure in men.– Desired capital is a function of the desired production, desired capital intensity and multiplier from growth on desired capital (dimensionless).f Effective Capital is that portion of total capital that is presently utilized (capital units/year)." Hire Rate measured in men/year.& The hourly wage is set at $4/hour.2 Capital is initialized at 7.5e6 capital units.J Test Pattern is addition of any steps, ramps or noise to consumption.R Input Pattern 2 introduces can introduce an exogenous shock to external income.2 Interest Rate is set at 6% per year (fraction)† Inventory Carrying Costs are calculated by the average cost of current inventory multiplied by the interest rate (dollars/year).6 Inventory Multiplier for Shipments (dimensionless)6 Inventory Multiplier for Shipments (dimensionless)* Labor Exponent (1-alpha (dimensionless)j Labor Intensity is defined as current labor divided by average production rate (men/output unit/year).B Labor ratio is labor divided by desired labor (dimensionless).ž Labor Intensity From Factor Costs equals average labor intensity multiplied b the multiplier from factor cost on labor intensity (men/output unit/year).j Multiplier of Capital demand on lifetime of capital is a function of the capital ratio (dimensionless).j Multiplier of Capital demand on lifetime of capital is a function of the capital ratio (dimensionless).‚ Multiplier from capital demand on orders for capital is a function of the relative desired orders for capital (dimensionless).‚ Multiplier from capital demand on orders for capital is a function of the relative desired orders for capital (dimensionless).B Multiplier of Desired Production on Profits is dimensionless.B Multiplier of Desired Production on Profits is dimensionless.f Multiplier from factor cost on capital is a function of relative return on capital (dimensionless).f Multiplier from factor cost on capital is a function of relative return on capital (dimensionless).B Multiplier from Factor Cost on Labor Intensity (dimensionless)B Multiplier from Factor Cost on Labor Intensity (dimensionless)š Multiplier from Growth in Desired Capital equals one plus the expected growth in production multiplied by the capital delivery delay (dimensionless).: Multiplier Growth from Desired Labor (dimensionless).F Multiplier of Labor Demand on Orders for Labor is dimensionless.F Multiplier of Labor Demand on Orders for Labor is dimensionless.N Multiplier for Price Expectations on Desired Inventory is dimensionless.N Multiplier for Price Expectations on Desired Inventory is dimensionless.N Multiplier from Production Pressure on Labor Productivity is dimensionless.N Multiplier from Production Pressure on Labor Productivity is dimensionless.. Average New Vacancy Creation (men/years).* Any noise added to the production rate.^ Noise 2 can be used to introduce noise into the consumption from income (dimensionless).& Normal Production Rate (units/year)6 Normal Backlog Coverage (years) is set equal to .2.’ Normal Capital Intensity is the set equal to the initial capital base divided by the normal production rate (capital units/output unit/year).2 Normal Lifetime of Capital is set at 15 years.2 The normal duration of employment is 2 years.: Normal Inventory Coverage (years) is constant at .5.~ Normal Labor Intensity is mean/output unit/year and is determined by comparing initial labor to the normal production rate.J Normal Profit Margin is set equal to 10% of current price (fraction).f Normalized Effective Capital equals Effective Capital divided by Initial Capital (dimensionless).j Orders filled are equal to capital on order divided by the capital delivery delay (capital units/year).’ Orders for capital are determined by the average orders for capital times the multiplier from capital demand on orders (capital units/year).2 Overtime Premium is set at 30% (dimensionless).: Perceived Rate of Increase in Price (fraction/year).Z Price of capital is set equal to the constant price of capital (dollars/capital unit).n Real consumer income is equal to nominal wages and external income deflated by current price (units/year).r Relative Cost of Capital is annual cost of capital unit divided by annual cost of labor unit (dimensionless).Š Relative delivery delay for goods is defined as delivery delay for goods divided by the norml backlog coverage and is dimensionless.¾ Relative Desired Orders is the average orders for capital plus the indiated capital rders for inentory and backlog correction divided by the average orders for capital (dimensionless).6 Relative Desired Orders for Labor is dimensionless.V Relative margin product of capital is also the labor/capital ratio (dimensionless).Š Relative return on capital is the ratio of the relative marginal product of capital to the relative cost of capital (dimensionless).Z Shipment rate depletes the backlog at the same rate it depletes inventory (units/year). Shipment Rate is measured in units/year.6 Smoothed Aerage Price is measured in dollars/unit.F Swtich 1 (dimensionless) which activates and deactivates the noise. Switch 2 regulatesÖ Switch 3 if On (equal to 1) then Labor Intensity indicated by factor costs determines desired labor intensity. When switch 3 is off then normal labor intensity determines desired labor intensity. (dimensionless)ª When on (switch =1), consumption is determined by consumption from income, while when the switch is off, consumption is determined by test consumption (dimensionless).: Time to average capital intensity is set at 15 years.n Termination rate is determined by labor divided by average duration of employment and measured in men/year.~ Test consumption is determined by the constant consumption rate plusany test pattern (such as steps or ramps) (units/year)6 Time to Adjust Labor is set a half-a-year. (years)B Time to average unit costs of production is set at one year.j Time to Average Price is set equal to 1/3 years and equal to the time to smooth average price (years).> Time to average production rate (years) is set equal to 1.6 Time to perceive rate of increase in price (years).: Time to Smooth Average Price is set equal to 1/3 years.6 Time to adjust capital is set at 4 years (years).6 Time to Average Labor Intensity is set at 15 years.> Time to Average New Vacancy Creation is set at half-a-year.J Time to average orders for capital is set equal to four years (years).> Time to Average Real Consumer Income is equal to 2.5 years.J Time to average relative length of work week is set at 1/3 of a year.‚ Unit Costs of Production takes the current wages and inventory carrying costs and divides them by the average production rate. 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