÷H(Tue Apr 07 11:46:58 1998) From LongWave.vmfe,èmÈn¨p¨p³p¨p AA?¡7L¿¼¼È¼2/34"#$%)'(s¢675&>I¢``    €? ‹ïX€ö€öc#œ €çN€ö€öœ ¡n€ö€ö–1œ –øb€ö€ö,œ$ €ö€ö¼Š$ €ö€ö¬ +€ö€ö¼ ‡.! €ö€ö¬(1úË€ö€öo&¬$5+ò€ö€öx)¬$:Jf €ö€öU¬,@€ö€ö¼ ‡C4#€ö€ö ¬$IšM€ö€ö¬ Q“€ö€ö\ ¬$W߀ö€öt(¬,]€ö€ö¼ ‡aG2€ö€ö¬,h&;€ö€öŒ0¬ o,µ€ö€ö4¬,tïÀ€ö€öh%¬ {dD€ö€ö ¬$n€ö€ö…-¬ ŠÖ„ €ö€ö+¬(€ö€ö¼ ‡“‹N€ö€ö ¬,˜Ãw €ö€ö$¬(šX€ö€ö ¬$¤É|€ö€ö’¬ ¬zƒ€ö€öZ¬$µ©b€ö€ö ¬$º¸k€ö€ö ¬ À±° €ö€öa"¬,Çí€ö€ö.¬$Î>·€ö€ö˜2¬ Õ›€ö€ö0¬$Ü?¾ €ö€ö7¬$áI¿€ö€öš3¬ 言ö€ö2¬$ðNÇ €ö€ö9¬$öTÇ€ö€öœ4¬ þc €ö€ö~+¬$Pþ€ö€ö|*¬$ Ö€ö€ör'¬$]Ô€ö€ö;¬$$pí€ö€ö=¬ 0一ö€öe$¬$9€ö€ö¼ ‡>ü €ö€ö?¬$F‚D HÀö€öD¬ Su߀ö€ö¢7¬ \ª €ö€öA¬(a_Ï€ö€öž5¬ h΀ö€öF¬,pÙ.€ö€öI¬$w3] €ö€öS¬(}>€ö€öK¬,‚(O€ö€öQ¬ ŠG€ö€öO¬ •j×€ö€ö 6¬ žYv €ö€öX¬$¤y€ö€öˆ.¬ ¬¢—€ö€ö^!¬$µ„€ö€öŠ/¬ ¼¯€ö€ö”¬ ÁE€ö¼ŠÄx€ö¼Šl|,üÜœ¼¬Ìì<ŒÌ ,\l쌬ܬ¼ì<L|¼ŒœÜì ,üLL\l||\¼ü,<l  ¬Œ,Ü\|œL<ŒlœœÌüÌ<¬\LC¡7L¿mmÈÈSUMPRODVMINVMAXTimeINITIAL TIMEFINAL TIMETIME STEP SAVEPER.Long waveAverage Life of Capital -Years BacklogOrder RateProduction RateIndicated Backlog -UnitsCapacity UtilizationTable Capacity UtilizationIndicated ProductionProduction Capacity-FractionCapital Acquisition TimeSwitch for Self OrderingDelivery DelayNormal Delivery DelayCapital Acquisitions"Switch for Capital AcquisitionCapital Supply Line -YearCapital DiscardsCapital StockCapital Order FractionTable Capital Order Fraction"Indicated Capital Order FractionCapital OrdersCapital Output RatioInitial Capital StockCorrection for BacklogTime to Adjust BacklogCorrection for CapitalDesired CapitalTime to Adjust CapitalCorrection for Supply LineDesired Supply LineTime to Adjust Supply LineReference Capital*Ratio of Desired to Reference Capital&Perceived Capital Acquisition Time*Effect of Delivery Delay on Supply Line.Effect of Delivery Delay on Supply Line f"Nominal Capital Acquisition Time-dimensionlessExogeneous Desired CapitalSTEP*Fractional Increase in Desired Capital"Time to Increase Desired CapitalExpected OrdersTime to Average OrdersG Capital Acquisition TimeG Capital AcquisitionsGoods Supply LineG Capital OrdersG Reference Capital Orders*G Fractional Increase in Capital Orders"Time to Increase Capital OrdersIndicated CapitalSwitch for Desired Capital"Indicated Production CapacitySwitch for ProductionTable for Ratio .Control.LongWaveŒl¡7L¿ ‡¡7L¿ÈÜ, |,ü|ül¡7L¿È¡7L¿¤¤d |Œ¬\ Ìì<ììììL\ìüL|l \¬Ll ÌÜlLLŒÜ¬Ü,<Ll|ìüüü|ü  ììŒ,<L l<,ŒÌ¬\\ì¼ì<¼ ì¬ì¼¼|| ÌìL Œ|ü<,¬Œ¬Ü¼ |,*ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Times New Roman~Capital Goods.+ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Times New Roman2dFor Capital Sector9-ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Times New RomandConsumer Goods %,3:AHOV]pƒŽ•œ£ª½Ð×Þåøÿ$7>IT_fmt† «²½ÄËÒÝèóþ &1<GRY`flrz€†Œ’˜ž¤ª°¶¼ÂÈÎÔÚàæìòøþ "(.4:@HNTZ`flrx~„Š–œ¢¨®´ºÀÆÌÒØòH¡7L¿È  Ls( ,  1 ,nq" Ìn•;( 0Œkÿ 0p" Œ(( ̪º0 Üò¡6 ìÝx4 0Ósÿ 0!u"JH \!‘((:ÿÿÿÿ Times New RomanJH L‚’?:ÿÿÿÿ Times New Roman*( •»*€€€€€€  ,*bH ìra( Ü5<C ü˜›5JH ¬M3:ÿÿÿÿ Times New RomanJH ¼‹”(:ÿÿÿÿ Times New Roman Ì¥, P. î,(JH LìÖ,:ÿÿÿÿ Times New Roman Œ­'(JH ¬$ú9;€€€€€€ Times New Roman*( Š!(€€€€€€  <»~+!JH ¼d'0:ÿÿÿÿ Times New Roman ÌOÏ1*( ¼äß/€€€€€€ *( ´ýÿ(€€€€€€ *( À/€€€€€€  Œ@7 \àa4" <Ï@*( Œî*5!€€€€€€  L4/N" \€5JH l•Ì1;€€€€€€ Times New Roman*( lŽ,€€€€€€  |Á5*( ¼]-,€€€€€€  ¬xÁ( |o•  œè)6*( `'(€€€€€€ *( l¿&/€€€€€€ *( Ì1'3€€€€€€ *( lÇÎ9€€€€€€ *( ÕÞ5€€€€€€ *( œC!9€€€€€€  üÊ*!*( œDÊ2€€€€€€ *( ¬Õ6€€€€€€ *( ¼áA*€€€€€€ *( ìçî6€€€€€€ *( â8€€€€€€  œ€&L ¬xÞÿGÌq d<qEpd·pï—Z§ hu dûu ­Ñ©…±= >‡gIv `ËH2Ýr ÂãP$fÐ uõäœ µÝrä ZÙ8Põ š½ XV#{V$V+%5 '%?è$%Ø«&%ãÞ(©) +à*ë+{,$P/.€0.k\1.´`2.óg46ì56ƒL7#J8#ˆ÷9#«$;-ŒŒ:-¦è+Q%=+äÿ<+V8  Ç 6 âN!ÿ!"ÔÄ Û Ù‹6 :fc æ(Á ÿÿ Sterman, John (1984) "A Behavioral Model of the Long Wave"fa æGÁ ÿÿ Replicated by Martin Grossman, MIT System Dynamics Group$ %8?FMT[fm€‡Ž™¤¯ºÅÌÓÚåì÷ý !'-39?EKQW]ciou{H¡7L¿œœÈ Æ/ |fÀ0 l‰3 <ÿ´8JH lõW1$:ÿÿÿÿ Times New Roman \ $2 L³¸1 ìÚn3 ¼ª++ lÉk**( ]l(€€€€€€  Œ î1JH ¼TR/;€€€€€€ Times New Roman ïg/ œqè%*( ¼}z)€€€€€€ *( ¼-0€€€€€€ *( ì5€€€€€€ *( üc0€€€€€€ *( œx A€€€€€€  0œoÿ 0*mÿ 0Ym"*( üY‰((€€€€€€  üXn"*( X<(€€€€€€ Ò,Ñ Ýà êÄ I»  ¨- î Â? 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Switch at zero: production rate is equal to indicated production rate.&If switch is off, no self-ordering." Simulation Control Paramaters&The final time for the simulation.&The initial time for the simulation..The frequency with which output is stored.&The time step for the simulation.j Replicated by Martin Grossman, MIT System Dynamics group, from: Sterman, John (1984) "A Behavioral Model of the Long Wave," Journal of Ecconomic Behavior and Organization, v. 6, pp. 17-53. See also: Sterman, John (1989) "Deterministic Chaos in an Experimental Economic System," Journal of Ecconomic Behavior and Organization, v. 12, pp. 1-28.lï€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö A€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö@@€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö AÍÌL=€ö€ö€öÍÌL=¥ÔhS€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€öÀ?€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€?€?=À?@@@@@€?€? " +5 *¡7L¿DDÈ?@@?@@ÍÌL>ÍÌÌ>š™?ÍÌL?€?@š™™>ÍÌ ?@?fff?€?€?ÍÌ̽ÍÌL½ÍÌL=ÍÌÌ=€>š™™>33³>ÍÌÌ> ×£<ÍÌL=ÍÌÌ=€>)\>š™™>š™™>¿?€? @°@À@Ð@à@ð@?€? @Í̬@ff¶@Í̼@À@À@///---\\\ :L<%^E!@ 9:Current 15:0,0,0,0 19:100,0 4:Time 5:Average Life of Capital