÷H(Fri Oct 02 17:09:13 1998) From NFDis2.vmfe,ú©Z«‚«‚«­‚«ññ¡7L¿¼¼È ¼McdeQRSTVklÒgjfU¡riÒ``     €? Î[ =€ö€ör'¼ Ùc C€ö€ö"¼ ÃS 5€ö€öÞN¼ äl I€ö€ö=¼$ €ö€ö¼Š#à€ö€öt¼(%<õ€ö€öðV¼,'iÉ¡€ö€ög#¼$)©&/€ö€öT¼ +1ç €ö€ö-¼ -€ö€ö¼ ‡0,€ö€ö¼ ‡3d*€ö€öª6¼,5Yý €ö€öe!¼ 7wq€ö€öÈE¼,9l€ö€ö¼ ‡>£1 A¬éµ€ö€ö5¼,CÅð¹€ö€ö:¼ E´.5€ö€ö ¼ GGAà€ö€öz¼(I\Pã€ö€öI¼(K³: P¿5D€ö€öÆD¼ RÌ<L€ö€ö™0¼ U×Z\€ö€ö/¼$Wùkk€ö€ö1¼$Yîb d€ö€öØK¼ [Ö€ö€öƒ*¼$]0Y ¼ @‰`*“‚€ö€ö ¼$b y€ö€öçR¼ dS›‡€ö€öÄC¼ f^¢’€ö€ö—/¼ hø¦€ö€ö"¼$j“nö€ö€öv(¼$lJ‰€ö€öj$¼$n–Ñ¥€ö€öŸ3¼ p¬2 s¡Ø ­€ö€ö¡4¼ uÛÈ€ö€ö+¼,wÐ÷ À€ö€öÔJ¼ y€ö€ö¼ ‡|ô΀ö€ö¸<¼(~ (Ò€ö€öíU¼,€</Ø€ö€ö“.¼ ‚yYé€ö€ö~)¼,„ˆa ï€ö€ö ¼ † <€ö€öˆ+¼ ˆ¹„€ö€ö3¼$Š®v ú€ö€öÚL¼ Œ_ý7€ö€ö±8¼$Ží˜  €ö€öåQ¼  ³€ö€ö¼(’Ã#€ö€ö®7¼,”JÖ/€ö€ö%¼$–?Ë (€ö€öëT¼ ˜„«±€ö€öÑI¼,šËÈ€ö€öm%¼,œR žÁW€ö€öp&¼  †  ¢^$y€ö€ö ¼(¤î;!o€ö€ö ¼(¦¶M€ö€öb ¼ ¨« C€ö€ö÷W¼ ªÌ)a€ö€ö ¼$¬l€ö€ö¼ ‡®ã1 f€ö€öãP¼ °ô(è€ö€ö¶;¼$²ýG!s€ö€öL¼(´ì€ö€ö¼ ‡·4f$|€ö€öO¼ ¹?n‚€ö€öÍG¼ »[‡€ö€ö?¼ ½f’š€ö€ö'¼$¿m1€ö€ö¥5¼,Áyš¤€ö€öº>¼ ÃÚÐÈ€ö€öD¼ Å«³´€ö€öËF¼ Ƕ¿½€ö€ö›1¼(ÉåÛÑ€ö€ö)¼,ÌøãÛ€ö€ö¼?¼ Î3õ€ö€ö¾@¼ Ð> €ö€öÏH¼ ÒI!€ö€öáO¼$Ô(ü ï€ö€öÜM¼ Öb €ö€öÀA¼ Ø¡D&€ö€ö‹,¼,Ú–8€ö€öÂB¼ ܸK -€ö€öéS¼ ÞïxR€ö€ö:¼$à†Z€ö€ö9¼$â!b€ö€ö2¼$퀀ö€ö¼(4óŸ€ö€ö ¼(4ù¾€ö€ö¼(4ÿÝ€ö€ö ¼(4€ö€ö¼(4 %€ö€ö ¼(4|\Œl¬œ¬lì,¼\¬lÌœœì,Œü ŒŒœ\ÌÜü,ü|LŒì¼<|̬¼\<L|ül LŒü|\LÌì|<<<ÜܬÜ<,Ì,¬Lœ¬ì |ì\lL ¼,  ,œÜlœÌ¼¼lü<\LÜŒC¡7L¿——ÈSUMPRODVMINVMAXTimeINITIAL TIMEFINAL TIMETIME STEP SAVEPER .Nfdis2IVYFSEYNIC -Unit -YearPTYFCUSED-Dimensionless POWEREEEALFAKEKRANDOM NORMALSDVY NSPTYDIIDIVTAILED SMOOTHIATSSDSDVANSACIVSTGPLSH PULSEPLSTDETAE -PersonRWUNRUKDALKLRDKTAKRTSLDAPCPYCDYTSYTGTEXPIEMLNPMEYVMYEMAY-1TSAYRCMEM -DollarEPSPCEGSCGSPTSCGSEGTSGYTNTRCGTSCGTSCMGSTMTMSTAMSCMSLUSDCTSURCIRCEPERY SMOOTHIINSTINI#SMOOTHI(A,TSSD,EY)##SMOOTHI(DE,TAE,EE)##SMOOTHI(A,TSLD,EY)##SMOOTHI(CDY,TSY,EY-(T-GT))##SMOOTHI(Y,TSAY,EY)##SMOOTHI(U,TSU,U)#–¡7L¿ ‡¡7L¿,,È(, ,l,¬,ì!ì$ì,¡7L¿È¡7L¿ùùd<\ÜŒüœ|\üŒÌ<,ŒÌ\œ¬ì,Œ¼l<<\ ¬<<<<l<,<,¼| Œ| ¼<lÌÜ\¬ |\Œœ\ÌÜìÌ|<¬,ܬÜ\Ìì,Œì¬l ì¼,¬\<̬¼LŒ¬Ì¬<¬ÌÌ\<<\< ¬ìì<,ŒÌÌÜìÌœŒ\<lü,ŒÌÌ<\<üÜ \ÌŒìl<< ¬Ìì¬Ìœ|\¬Œ¬\œìÌL, ¬WXÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Times New RomandIntroduction^_ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Times New Roman½Causal Diagram¢bÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ mTimes New RomanÇ/Expanded Diagram H¡7L¿ÍÍÈY{ ZÿZBð@ÿÐ̈ˆ;³þ ºX&ÿÿÿÿWordMicrosoft Word  kûCourier New-ûœÿ¼@Times New Roman- ÿ^.X2 ^3kA Dynamic Synthesis of Basic Macroeconomic Therory:HH282R,828!8,''2"C2&,^2,,2-,283R,C8,,2,3!.0¦Á¢  ÿsF.P2 sF.kImplications for Stabilization Policy Analysis'R8,2!28'"2,8!28,2!28<2,2H822''.0¦Á¢ - ÿæ.,2 ækby Nathan B. Forrester82H2!828C<2,,,(!,,.0¦Á¢ûœÿ@Times New Roman- ̘.&2 ̘kPh.D. Dissertation82HH'',!,22.0¦Á¢?A.J2 ?A*kMIT Sloan School of Management August 1982Z=82,28,2222!Z,2-1,O,2H312'2222.0¦Á¢²Þ.D2 ²Þ&kThesis Supervisor: Dr. Robert M. Solow=2,''822,!2'2!H!C22,!Y822H.0¦Á¢˜@.>2 ˜@"kcopyright 1982 Nathan B. Forrester,230!122222H,2,2B73!!,',!.0¦Á¢û­ÿ@Times New Roman- ÿ  .52  knathanforrester@alum.mit.edu)%)&**% %L%*@@%*).0¦Á¢- üÿ- !ðû_ üÿÿÿ--6œ1P 6 &ÿÿÿÿWordMicrosoft Word  %¸ ûCourier New-ûœÿ@Times New Roman- .|2 K¸ %The equations of the original model have been changed as little as possible=2,,22,22'2!2,3!13,N22,2,2,2-,2,3,31,2,',,'22''2,.s.w2 sH¸ %to maintain direct correspondence with text of dissertation. The Vensim2N,2,22!,,,2!",'2222,2-,H2,32!2'',!,22=2,H,2'N.x¥Á¢æ.\2 æ6¸ %functions INTEG, POWER, SMOOTH, and RANDOM NORMAL have!22,22' H==H8H_=C8YHH=H,22CHHHHYHHCYI<2,3,.x¥Á¢Y.y2 YI¸ %been used as appropriate. Constants and initial computations, as well as2,,22',2,',22!22!,,C22',2',222,,2N22,22','H,,'.x¥Á¢Ì.2 ÌM¸ %variables and links that are related only to policy tests have been hidden in2,!,2,',2222'2,,",",,,2220222.0,''2,2,2-,2222,22.x¥Á¢?.t2 ?F¸ %the attached sketch. Use View > Hidden Elements command to reveal the2,,,,2,2'3,,2H',H,H8H22,2=,N,2',2NN,222",2-,2,.x¥Á¢².=2 ²!¸ %hidden variables and connections.222,22,!,2,',22,222-,22'.x¥Á¢- $*17=DJQW^dkqx~…‹‘˜ž¥«²¸¾ÄÌÒÙßæìòùÿ  &-39@FLSY`fmsz€‡”š¡§®´»ÁÈÎÕÛâèïõû")/5<BHNU[ahntz‡”š¡§­´ºÀÇÍÔÚàçíóú  &-39?FLSY`flsy†Œ“™ ¦­³ºÁÇÎÔÚàçíôú!'.4:AGMTZagmsy€†Œ’˜ž¤ª°¶H¡7L¿ÔÔȼ \åà( \šÝ ÿVÝ l»µ ÿÆÁ  ÿY¢5=û ìÜ ÿ ÖÜ Œd¾ ÿ }Ì |óÀ ÿ GÍ % ÿ+Ù Ì:}(«q ,s ÿ { ku Üê ÿˆ® Lâÿß ÿüÿã <’å ÿXæö¶j8 Œâ(Îâ œa  ÿ rÿ ̾ ÿ"Ê5Gÿ ¼ûé(%¢\ üàà ÿ'»Ò ìв ÿ)¶Ç ü‚ã ÿ+_â <º ÿ-1Äj+° ,® ÿ0+‰Á+¬á œŠG ÿ3 Õ| üê ÿ5 rú ¼Ë4 ÿ7 ‚ ¬Äu ÿ9 ü2 Ì\æ ÿ; 3á ìD ÿ= )ñ œ=-) ÿ? &  ÌTS ÿA3mM Ü£"(C3 $ ìù, ÿEC<' üyP ÿGC„B J ÿIE•& B] ÿKEiKEc~ !ïÿ ÿNK²$ \êÿüÿ ÿPK( |æÿ3 ÿRKG lèÿf ÿTKaK£ ŒG×ÿ ÿWIGîÿPIPWìÿ œòÿØÿ ÿ[W×ÿ{W†Øÿ Œ ~ ÿ^9U‚%9U§e9¬« œã— ÿb9Ø‹9%g± \œÕ ÿe%\Ô l3² ÿgebÁ%eWû ¬Ö7 ÿj^ìTg^# <r4(m^/U ¬¢‘ ÿo^Î’myò ¼Za ÿrm_Um21  H ÿu2 ,Téÿ ÿw7 N7óNw3ìÿ <±Úÿ ÿ{w÷àÿ LR= ÿ}wR+{c{ã` ü('({ì‚ L±4 ÿƒ{±Ž Žòÿ ÿ…{œèÿ-{úO œ]š(ˆoÿÓ5oÉM |è² ÿ‹oà <ŸØ ÿoŸ» |¿ ÿoŒ¬ lD(‘oŽn \ýv( Œ¾Á ÿ”o³® Ì+Q ÿ–‘KM‘–XJ{–ëŽ ¬Nƒ ÿš–@o ¼õC ÿœ–G Ühq ÿž–Pe Ìm% ÿ –U9 Üs÷ ÿ¢ q{  y ì– ÿ¥ ƒ“ËK l6 ÿ¨“¢M­“Ü<  ÿ«  <ã$ ÿ­ö*­ð ­œƒ­È, ¼(Ç ÿ²ˆ7¹ˆ":“o@Aš5è ¥ü5CɧICáKCØ[5m5ˆCœXÓ $*17>DKQW^dkqw~„‹‘˜ž¤«±¸¾ÅÌÓÙàæíóú %+28>EKRX^dkrx…Œ’›¡§­³¹¿ÊÐ×Ýèîõû &-3:@KQX^ekrx…Œ’£ª°·½ÈÎÕÛæìóù $+18>EKRX_elrx…Œ’£ª°»ÁÌÒÙßêð÷ý  &-3>DKQX^dkq|‚‰• ¦­³¾ÄËÔßåëöü #*07=CJPH¡7L¿¨¨ÈW \ÐF( \©C ÿSC æ ÿ[ü ì-B ÿðB ‹ ÿ$> ÌÐ( ŠÁ pÆ ܪR ÿ .  <:L ÿ ôN ± ŒÕI(‚I ¼ê„(LÛ üYJ ÿ+IG œ– ÿðÎ ¼äy ÿ$Ö ¬Ûù ÿ© Ü€c(f ì´o ÿ!i ÞR ÿ#!;h Úª ÿ%!” !Ñ %®ý Œ* ÿ)qV5.¿8vG \«l ÿ.\q.Xš <y«(1)Bá ¬x: ÿ3)Å@1\1,¨ üíœ( œ&(83Àf lDÂ(:3T \¹ú(><’µ  <š˜ ÿ>7±Ÿ>ªm 8·´<3@ &#šY%¨*( ü¦– ÿ€€€€€€E´x lâ– ÿGÛy*( ü®r ÿ€€€€€€I¬a Œ–ú ÿK |Æ ÿM»$ ,¦ú ÿOÓñ*( ü†* ÿ€€€€€€Q[5 Ìnú ÿSR ì†N ÿU[H*( œzr2 ÿ€€€€€€WV[ NZ ÿY:m LN~ ÿ[ zh ¬êr ÿ]a œö– ÿ_v ̺ ÿa ‰*( ü&Þ ÿ€€€€€€c.› üzf ÿe[Z ìbŠ ÿgQp*( œz* ÿ€€€€€€i–3 :* ÿk3*( ¬F~ ÿ€€€€€€mLj ,Ž~ ÿoxh ÌrR ÿq€j ,®: ÿsÄT*( Þ ÿ€€€€€€uà@ œ2 ÿw   üF" ÿyY8 ü¦" ÿ{™8 Œ–: ÿ}#¶D \rv ÿ#£e 6Ž ÿ%ƒ™%¤Ž |6¾ ÿ„%†³ lZâ ÿ†%›Å*( ¬N ÿ€€€€€€ˆ)5 lzê ÿŠ)Vû*( lê’ ÿ€€€€€€Œ.Î*( üê– ÿ€€€€€€Ž1Áœ ¼êº ÿ1Áµ*( üŠ€ ÿ€€€€€€’3‚c |²b ÿ”3–N  <0v ÿ–3QY |: ÿ˜3U( ŒXŠ ÿš3dh ôÖ ÿœ7òÄ*( ü–ö ÿ€€€€€€ž8¼ ¼~& ÿ 8°& ̼ ÿ¢:ŽÑ©<ƒÝ æ> ÿ¥<Ö&*( œb® ÿ€€€€€€§>}£ LnÒ ÿ©>º}]*( <F  ÿÿ¬}g œ(F ÿ®}Z@*( <¢æÿ ÿ€€€ÿ°s¦  LNæÿ ÿ ²sx *( L ÿ€€€€€€´s@z&:¢±*( < Ì ÿ€€€ÿ·¢êÈ ¬ ® ÿ¹¢è¶ ¼vô ÿ»¢’ß Ü” ÿ½¢¤ë ÌÐô ÿ¿¢Èá ܲ& ÿÁ¿¼·¿óÜ ìä& ÿÄ¿Ü  ÿ<§2­ ÈCopyright 1982 by Nathan B. ForresterH¡7L¿»»ÈD:ܘ\•lG¦€?•|jH“\©©ÿ•ÌG$•Ü•ì%•ü• *ã• ¦š™™>rê$¸™\•Ü#%•<$¦€?•L%•\•L*ù)•L¦?.œ•\•<#% %•ü|0'•Œ•œ$¦€?•¬|0'•¼•Ì•¬%•üÜ0000¦ÍÌ̽¦ÍÌÌ=¦•ì•ü*"4•ü¦¥ÔèS**9•¬¦€>01>•ì¦*8C•ü¦^CZ?HèéZ©• '$••Ì•,*^N•,¦ÍÌÌ>:eSêZ•%• •<ZnXL˜\•\›\›L00•\•l•ü*{]•l¦?¢‚bPèZ•\##•ì• %•üÜ0000¦ÍÌ̽¦ÍÌÌ=¦•|•Œ*—h•|¦*žm•Œ¦€¦C²¥rëZ©•ì###•œ•¬•¼%'%•Ì•ü•œÜ0•ì•œ*Íx•Ì¦ ×#<*Ô}•ì¦zDbÛ‚„êZ©•Œ›l›L00•ü• •œ*쉕œ¦ ¼¾L*óŽ• ¦ÍÌÌ>bú“¬éZ•ü'%$¦€?•¬•\•,b˜˜\•,'%$¦€?•¬•ü•œº˜™\•<I' $'•œ$¦€?•L•Œ'•œ$¦€?•L•L*+¢•L¦ÍÌL=R2§Ô“\©•¼G$•¬•\•ÌrD®œêZ•Ì'%•¬•ü#'¦€?•l•|:S³ô“\•\'•¼•l*]¸•l¦`Ajd½t“\•¬#•\'$•Œ•¼•œ*r•œ¦@@ryÇ<êZ•Œ'%•¬•<#'¦€?•l•¬Z‡Ì”\•<›|›L00•\•¼•ü*”Ñ•¼¦€@B›ÖøèZ©•œ%•Ì•ÜRªÝ°èZ•Ì'$•Ü•\•Ü‚¶âD–\•Ü›Œ›L00•ì•ü$•ü$• •*Çç•ü¦ @RÎìéZ•ì$•Ü$• •ÚñЖ\©•¬%%•|,%'¦€¿•<L'%•ü•\%•l•|,%'•Œ•<L'•œ•ü*ø•|¦Âõ<* ý•Œ¦333?*•|¦ @*•<¦€¿Z  àèZ•œ›œ›L00•Ü•¼•ü*-•¼¦ @:4`”\•lG•Ì•ÜJ?äêZ•Ü'%•ü•ü•|ŒJ ø”\©•\G %%•\• $'•L•<¦€?•ü*b'•ü¦€?*j,• ¦)\<Br1Ü’\©•¼#••,*ƒ8•¦·CºRJ‹=LéZ•,%%••<•L*–B•L¦šGd˜\• # %#••\$¦€?•l%%•Ü•|•l*¯L•l¦€?R¶Q€”\•|'#••\•ü:ÂV“\•#•\•Œ*Ì[•\¦·C:RJÔ`|éZ•Œ%%•\•œ•<*ße•œ¦’æj°—\•Ì#%%•l•<•¬'%•¼$•Ì•l•Ü*øo•Ü¦ÍÌÌ;*ÿt•¬¦*y•¼¦b~ü˜\•Ì%•Ü#¦€?%•ì•<*ƒ•ì¦¢"ˆ<•\•<#$•ü•L'%• $•Œ•ü%• •Œ*4• ¦Z;’0”\•ü›¬›L00•<••<*G—•¦€=*Nœ•œ¦€=*V¡•|¦*^¦•Œ¦pA*f«˜–\•¬•œZo±t—\•,$$$•Ü•œ•¬•¼j|¶\–\•<''$•ü•Œ• •Œ:Š»•\•L$•Ü•\2”‰L•••bœ•G'$•••• œš Lä=V¦€ö€öç€ö€öé€ö€öë€ö€özXˆL\•\G'$•\•\•l•üz‚@M\•lG'$•ü•l• •œzÌ8L\•|G'$•\•|•¼•ü¢âØL\•ŒG'$•ì•Œ•ü$•ü$• •z 0èZ•œG'$•Ü•œ•¼•üz’HM\•¬G'$•<•¬••<ÔºH¡7L¿ááÈ©b©{ A Dynamic Synthesis of Basic Macroeconomic Therory: Implications for Stabilization Policy Analysis by Nathan B. Forrester Ph.D. Dissertation MIT Sloan School of Management August 1982 Thesis Supervisor: Dr. Robert M. Solow copyright 1982 Nathan B. Forrester nathanforrester@alum.mit.edu The equations of the original model have been changed as little as possible to maintain direct correspondence with text of dissertation. INTEG, POWER, SMOOTH, and RANDOM NORMAL functions of Vensim have been used as appropriate. Constants, initial computations, as well as variables and links related only to policy tests have been hidden in the attached sketch. 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