Average Life of Capacity=
	200
	~	months
	~		|

Capacity in Transit= INTEG (
	+Transit Initiation Rate-Transit Completion Rate,
		Transit Delay*(Desired Production Capacity-Production Capacity)
		/(Transit Delay+Transit Initiation Delay))
	~	Units/Month
	~		|

Capacity Utilization Factor=
	Capacity Utilization Lookup(Desired to Actual Capacity Ratio)
	~	dmnl
	~		|

Capacity Utilization Lookup(
	[(0,0)-(2,2)],(0,1),(0.25,1),(0.5,1),(0.75,1),(1,1),(1.25,1),(1.5,1),(1.75,1),(2,1))
	~	dmnl
	~		|

Commodity Price=
	Commodity Price Lookup(Relative Inventory Coverage)
	~	$/unit
	~		|

Commodity Price Lookup(
	[(0,0)-(2,100)],(0,100),(0.25,95.5),(0.5,87),(0.75,72.5),(1,50),(1.25,27),(1.5,15),(\
		1.75,7.5),(2,0))
	~	$/unit
	~		|

Consumer Population=
	200
	~	people
	~		|

Consumption Adjustment Delay=
	3
	~	Month
	~		|

Consumption Rate=
	Consumer Population*Per Capita Consumption*Test Input
	~	Units/Month
	~		|

Depreciation Rate=
	Production Capacity/Average Life of Capacity
	~	(Units/Month)/Month
	~		|

Desired Capacity Lookup(
	[(0,0)-(100,2000)],(0,0),(20,10),(40,50),(60,1150),(80,1500),(100,1600))
	~	Units/Month
	~		|

Desired Inventory Coverage=
	10
	~	months
	~		|

Desired Production Capacity=
	Desired Capacity Lookup(Expected Price)
	~	Units/Month
	~		|

Desired to Actual Capacity Ratio=
	Desired Production Capacity/Production Capacity
	~	dmnl
	~		|

Equilibrium Per Capita Consumption=
	Per Capita Consumption Lookup(Commodity Price)
	~	Units/Month/person
	~		|

Expected Cons Adjustment Delay=
	100
	~	months
	~		|

Expected Consumption Change Rate=
	(Consumption Rate-Expected Consumption Rate)/Expected Cons Adjustment Delay
	~	(Units/Month)/Month
	~		|

Expected Consumption Rate= INTEG (
	Expected Consumption Change Rate,
		591)
	~	Units/Month
	~		|

Expected Price= INTEG (
	Expected Price Change Rate,
		50.22)
	~	$/unit
	~		|

Expected Price Adjustment Delay=
	3
	~	months
	~		|

Expected Price Change Rate=
	(Commodity Price-Expected Price)/Expected Price Adjustment Delay
	~	($/unit)/Month
	~		|

Inventory= INTEG (
	+Production Rate-Consumption Rate,
		5900)
	~	Units
	~		|

Inventory Coverage=
	Inventory/Expected Consumption Rate
	~	months
	~		|

Noise=
	0
	~	dmnl
	~		|

Per Capita Consumption= INTEG (
	Per Capita Consumption Change Rate,
		2.96)
	~	Units/Month/person
	~		|

Per Capita Consumption Change Rate=
	(Equilibrium Per Capita Consumption-Per Capita Consumption)/Consumption Adjustment Delay
	~	(Units/Month/person)/Month
	~		|

Per Capita Consumption Lookup(
	[(0,0)-(100,10)],(0,7),(20,6.5),(40,5),(60,1),(80,0.3),(100,0))
	~	Units/person/Month
	~		|

Production Capacity= INTEG (
	+Transit Completion Rate-Depreciation Rate,
		591)
	~	Units/Month
	~		|

Production Delay=
	6
	~	months
	~		|

Production Initiation Rate=
	Production Capacity*Capacity Utilization Factor
	~	Units/Month
	~		|

Production Rate=
	DELAY3(Production Initiation Rate, Production Delay )*PUF
	~	Units/Month
	~		|

PUF=
	PUF Lookup(Desired to Actual Capacity Ratio)
	~	dmnl
	~		|

PUF Lookup(
	[(0,0)-(2,2)],(0,1),(0.25,1),(0.5,1),(0.75,1),(1,1),(1.25,1),(1.5,1),(1.75,1),(2,1))
	~	dmnl
	~		|

Relative Inventory Coverage=
	Inventory Coverage/Desired Inventory Coverage
	~	dmnl
	~		|

StepSize=
	0.15
	~	dmnl
	~		|

Test Input=
	1+STEP(StepSize,0)-STEP(StepSize,10)+Noise
	~	dmnl
	~		|

Transit Completion Rate=
	DELAY3(Transit Initiation Rate, Transit Delay )
	~	(Units/Month)/Month
	~		|

Transit Delay=
	4
	~	months
	~		|

Transit Initiation Delay=
	3
	~	months
	~		|

Transit Initiation Rate=
	(Desired Production Capacity-Production Capacity-Capacity in Transit)
	/Transit Initiation Delay
	~	(Units/Month)/Month
	~		|

********************************************************
	.Control
********************************************************~
		Simulation Control Paramaters
	|

FINAL TIME  = 200
	~	Month
	~	The final time for the simulation.
	|

INITIAL TIME  = 0
	~	Month
	~	The initial time for the simulation.
	|

SAVEPER  = 
        TIME STEP
	~	Month
	~	The frequency with which output is stored.
	|

TIME STEP  = 0.5
	~	Month
	~	The time step for the simulation.
	|

\\\---/// Sketch information - do not modify anything except names
V300  Do not put anything below this section - it will be ignored
*View 1
$0,0,Times New Roman|12||0-0-0|0-0-0|0-0-0|-1--1--1|-1--1--1
10,1,Inventory,528,156,40,20,3,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
12,2,48,337,159,8,8,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,3,5,1,4,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(455,159)|
1,4,5,2,100,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(377,159)|
11,5,48,416,159,6,8,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0
10,6,Production Rate,416,178,51,11,32,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
12,7,48,745,156,8,8,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,8,10,7,4,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(697,156)|
1,9,10,1,100,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(607,156)|
11,10,48,652,156,6,8,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0
10,11,Consumption Rate,652,175,58,11,32,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
10,12,Per Capita Consumption,773,333,45,20,3,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,13,Consumer Population,848,216,67,11,0,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
12,14,48,981,334,8,8,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,15,17,12,4,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(862,334)|
1,16,17,14,100,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(946,334)|
11,17,48,913,334,6,8,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0
10,18,Per Capita Consumption Change Rate,913,362,80,20,40,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
10,19,Expected Consumption Rate,569,386,50,20,3,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,20,Production Capacity,145,333,40,20,3,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,21,Capacity in Transit,145,503,40,20,3,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
12,22,48,146,183,8,8,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,23,25,22,4,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(146,219)|
1,24,25,20,100,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(146,286)|
11,25,48,146,253,8,6,33,3,0,0,2,0,0,0
10,26,Depreciation Rate,81,253,57,11,32,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,27,29,20,4,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(145,382)|
1,28,29,21,100,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(145,453)|
11,29,620,145,418,8,6,33,3,0,0,2,0,0,0
10,30,Transit Completion Rate,61,418,76,11,32,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
12,31,48,145,633,8,8,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,32,34,21,4,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(145,550)|
1,33,34,31,100,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(145,607)|
11,34,48,145,583,8,6,33,3,0,0,2,0,0,0
10,35,Transit Initiation Rate,71,583,66,11,32,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
10,36,Expected Price,549,653,40,20,3,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
12,37,48,768,389,8,8,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,38,40,19,4,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(654,389)|
1,39,40,37,100,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(731,389)|
11,40,48,696,389,6,8,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0
10,41,Expected Consumption Change Rate,696,417,75,20,40,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
12,42,48,772,650,8,8,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,43,45,36,4,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(634,650)|
1,44,45,42,100,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(728,650)|
11,45,48,686,650,6,8,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0
10,46,Expected Price Change Rate,686,669,89,11,32,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,47,12,11,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(713,255)|
1,48,13,11,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(756,196)|
10,49,StepSize,638,76,29,11,0,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,50,Test Input,748,96,33,11,0,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,51,Noise,848,76,20,11,0,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,52,49,50,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(683,84)|
1,53,51,50,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(811,83)|
1,54,50,10,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(686,115)|
1,55,11,40,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(692,306)|
10,56,Inventory Coverage,510,300,62,11,0,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,57,Relative Inventory Coverage,510,550,60,25,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,58,Desired Inventory Coverage,410,450,40,25,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,59,58,57,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(443,498)|
1,60,56,57,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(483,390)|
1,61,1,56,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(526,226)|
1,62,19,56,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(559,338)|
10,63,Commodity Price,780,560,55,11,0,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,64,Equilibrium Per Capita Consumption,860,480,112,11,0,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,65,57,63,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(599,585)|
1,66,63,64,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(825,524)|
1,67,64,18,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(880,433)|
1,68,12,18,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(807,378)|
1,69,63,45,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(743,607)|
1,70,36,46,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(590,693)|
10,71,Desired Production Capacity,380,630,90,11,0,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,72,20,26,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(94,298)|
1,73,21,35,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(86,538)|
1,74,20,34,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(202,475)|
1,75,71,34,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(268,592)|
1,76,36,71,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(454,653)|
10,77,Transit Initiation Delay,45,653,70,11,0,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,78,77,35,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(55,624)|
10,79,Desired to Actual Capacity Ratio,290,460,55,25,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,80,20,79,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(252,409)|
1,81,71,79,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(324,560)|
10,82,PUF,390,330,17,11,0,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,83,Capacity Utilization Factor,260,330,35,25,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,84,79,82,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(326,381)|
1,85,82,6,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(429,268)|
1,86,79,83,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(262,384)|
10,87,Production Initiation Rate,280,230,79,11,0,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,88,20,87,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(173,268)|
1,89,87,6,1,0,0,0,0,65,0,-1--1--1,,1|(328,191)|
1,90,83,87,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(264,277)|
1,91,19,41,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(611,439)|
10,92,Average Life of Capacity,36,183,78,11,0,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,93,Transit Delay,26,363,42,11,0,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,94,92,26,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(54,212)|
1,95,93,30,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(39,384)|
1,96,35,30,1,0,0,0,0,65,0,-1--1--1,,1|(49,500)|
10,97,Production Delay,380,90,55,11,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,98,97,5,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(395,120)|
10,99,Consumption Adjustment Delay,1000,430,98,11,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,100,99,18,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(967,404)|
10,101,Expected Cons Adjustment Delay,620,480,105,11,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,102,101,41,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(646,457)|
10,103,Expected Price Adjustment Delay,740,730,104,11,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,104,103,46,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(717,704)|
10,105,Capacity Utilization Lookup,360,270,35,25,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,106,105,83,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(316,296)|
10,107,PUF Lookup,400,400,43,11,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,108,107,82,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(398,368)|
10,109,Commodity Price Lookup,860,620,81,11,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,110,109,63,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(825,594)|
10,111,Per Capita Consumption Lookup,980,540,103,11,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,112,111,64,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(926,513)|
10,113,Desired Capacity Lookup,310,680,81,11,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,114,113,71,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(338,659)|
12,115,0,510,20,429,11,0,4,0,2,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|0||0-0-255
Replicated by Ed Anderson and Liz Krahmer from: Meadows, D. L. (1970). Dynamics of Commodity Production Cycles. Productivity Press.
12,116,0,510,50,200,11,0,4,0,2,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|0||0-0-255
Translated to Vensim by Tom Fiddaman, Ventana Systems, 1998
///---\\\
:L<%^E!@
9:Current
22:$,Dollar,Dollars,$s
22:Day,Days
22:Hour,Hours
22:Month,Months
22:Person,People,Persons
22:Unit,Units
22:Week,Weeks
22:Year,Years
15:0,0,0,0
19:75,0
4:Time
5:Production Initiation Rate