H(Tue Apr 07 11:42:54 1998) From Heattrap.vmfe,**5*"7L||D('&)$%,3-+*DHC@e    ? O"r3 D, e2P Z*G  $- * -0p (4-( 9X+ @]eB H|O O  Q?[d(WR`A ]  b!(h' mhjK r~wM wD, ~I0   sqL N N^. %R`/ 0Wb0 =l ?L) 8l z l(5l l l(t4l g:"l vo2l l &l - l(<Jl l  !6l(08!l  Dl g Cl  Fl "Hl  6l 7l Z l(* K. # 'G!<# -zi1 3bbN(7< @; F9 H: N59 U;(Z _I c> iA  nqfV* t" y* {w (4PI( E$  (? @ |j\- E  E& @$ /Q D T f2(U u4(G' C% (0(0\llL| L  <  ,\l,L<<\L,<\<|,|L|l\Ll|l,<|\,, <l\LC7LffSUMPRODVMINVMAXTimeINITIAL TIMEFINAL TIMETIME STEP SAVEPER.HeattrapINITINITx -Year .ClimateTemperatureChg TemperatureEquilibrium TemperaturePreindustrial TemperatureTemperature SensitivityLNGHGs in AtmospherePreindustrial GHGsAbs Temp CoeffAdapted TemperatureChg Adapt TempTemp Adapt TimeTemp Chg TimeCost of Absolute TempCost of Temp ChgabsTemp Chg CoeffTemperature Chg RtGHG AssimilationGHG Atm LifetimeGHG Emissions OutputEmiss Intensity .EconomyLabor Multiplier LaborLabor CoeffCapital Multiplier CapitalInvestmentDepreciationInitial OutputCapital Life Chg TechTechnologyTechnology Chg RtConsumption:SUPPLEMENTARYCumulative OutputDepletion MultiplierResource IndependenceIF THEN ELSEReference OutputResource SensitivitySavings RateLabor GrowthLabor Growth RtexpCost of Abs PolicyCost of Policy Chg.EmissionsDesired EmissionsInitial EmissionsEmiss Tech"Marginal Income of Emiss ReduxMarg Cost Zero EmissLOGNMarg Cost Init EmissMarg Cost Emiss ReduxAdapted PolicyChg Adapt PolicyTax PolicyPolicy Adapt TimeChg Emiss TechEmiss Tech Chg RtChg Irr EmissminIrreversible EmissionsEmiss Adj TimeChg Rev EmissReversible EmissionsPolicy Chg CoeffPolicy Chg RtFrac Emiss ReversibleResource Price .UtilityDiscounted OutputDiscount Factor UtilityAvg Disc OutputZIDZCum Disc OutputAvg Disc UtilityCum Disc UtilityDiscounted UtilityDiscount Rate#INIT(Labor)##INIT(Capital)#e7L 7L 7L7Ld| | \LL,\LLLLlL L< , L< L,\ \\\l,,\Ll< \l||L,,,, <\<|  ll\lL\\| L     <4. Times New RomandAbout6/ Times New RomanRdEconomy85 Times New RomanRdEmissions;7 Times New Roman>dClimate & Carbon?9 Times New Roman$dUtility H7LR"  6 Heat Trap Model, replicated by Tom Fiddaman (tom@vensim.com) from: Hatlebakk, Magnus, & Moxnes, Erling (1992). Misperceptions and Mismanagement of the Greenhouse Effect? The Simulation Model. Report CMR-92-A30009, Dec. Christian Michelsen Research ")07>ELSZahov}  &,28>DJPV\bhntz H7Ljj*( lg  4( 0  =/ \( % | _, g! ( 0@ ,a4 0 l86 7< < |Q1< 1W5 !/ L I( YE0 " <G# 1; G k!    0 0" !  "   0W 0"   {" L{  L" & [PnPn #r #%( I   b 3 3u '"'d*&*& %%%% %(%h%$' 9" "!dr$$ d^&& ddd $[$Kw%.u$i %,3:AHOV]dkry "(.4:@FLRX^djpv| H7Ljj 0E 0D 5 \( 5 LF( <LD, ,0 Q; lZ%> \'X v' j@A l/ ,V( \* Lz: <, 5 (' S[( !  Y4 |W' 0` 0TE" TU,  0[ 0Z[" Zk&  " L*  L]" m1 "+"'.s~h!w    B!< WpE5QW5Qj C q ' SYr=pEd8Ed(?[dt[!]!d]!=Q  "V +1)Ti %,3:AHOZahov} %+17=CIOU[agmsyH7Ljj 0U .@ ,C @( 0 0A |G. \[v1 L| \MU(*( kV@  ,5 l4 <> b4 P. (*( NG   3 7 - 0U 0U" e1  V" <f+  <aA" aQ.  a" a0 ! m"eV ] =s   qtn q VdVU dUAd>ADd~ T0  HB",i %,3:AHS^ipw~H7L LO V.( c LG& [_+ c( ,b$( #. /*( lf *( lR$ *( lT  0( 0 0(" <81  < "  3  #QP:NJyu J c ,# +'( d(&d6vtH7L:KZlG?|"*  Z &*(*C* |*% ?*-?:5tKZG dAz< GZ#,'%<L'\lL@*K*|<:P0h!\GffbARW6"\'$R_<#\ '$bgCgZ$?%|$,RqI*V?*[L>:`:HZ,G <*L>*l{n?b IZ\%#?'B*A*l;RJZ|'$*%L>:*KZ\GL<*1:64jZ%LR<\)\%L'LBF!\0 lBN!\0,l:V$\ G:]hZ,G<RdjZ($?Ll*oL #<:tXjZ<%2!\l2 \\`H7L==l& &C |& &? &? &G dA:&,#<%L\'l'L@|&<&GffbA&$' &$'&&?$|%$,&&?$% &\$l',,&B<&L%\"\&G<$Cl&C,&`A&A&1l?&HB &$'<& @&|&'(.&'(?$*&G$@@%&A &%,<&L$\&GLVl&|#?$|'?#\&\'(&'&pA&L%&G@&?&%&&<%$l'AJL&%|%%%l%?$% %%&HE|&>&?&L>&G ?,& #<>&<%L%L\'l'|'l:&<%L'L'l%$6&l%'l(,'<%L&G&$'&L%2 &,'L$,'<&L&,'L$\'<& &?$l%|<& A6\&L%%\#?$%,L&G?&$B`;&?<&>,&G <&L>l&{n?&\&%?#'B&Al&;|&$'&L>\&GL<&&%L&&%LL'& l&,l &G,&G<(&?$L(lL& #<<&%B,&<%L%L\'l'L'l<H7Lhh&Internally defined simulation time. Tuo (page 6) Tl (page 5) Kt (eq. 6, pg. 8) Tr (eq. 16, pg. 10) (eq. 16, pg. 10)Z Note: autocorrelated random temperature change component (vT, page 6) is omitted here. (eq. 6, pg. 8) (eq. 6, pg. 8) (page 5) Tau-M (page 5) E (page 5) M & Mo (page 5) Mio (page 5) Tio (page 5) Tau-r (eq. 16, page 10) Kgt (eq. 6, pg. 8) Tau-t (page 6) St (page 5) (eq. 6, pg. 8) (eq. 6, pg. 8) (eq. 7, pg. 9) tK (eq. 7, pg. 9) (eq. 11, pg. 9) C (eq. 9, pg. 9) R (eq. 12, pg. 9) (eq. 6, pg. 8) (eq. 7, pg. 9)l Yo (eq. 6, pg. 8) equals world output x 10^6 million $ (pg. 15) Value from personal comm with Erling. I (eq. 8, pg. 9): L (eq. 10, pg. 9) Value from personal comm with Erling.: (eq. 10, pg. 9) rate of labor force growth (declining)2 Y (eq. 6, pg. 8) Random variation, Vy, omitted RH (eq. 6, pg. 8) dR (eq. 6, pg. 8) SR (eq. 6, pg. 8) s (eq. 8, pg. 9) V (eq. 11, pg. 9) eV (eq. 11, pg. 9) ed (eq. 20, pg. 12)2 Cp (from combining eq. 18 & eq. 19, pg. 11) mc (eq. 18, pg. 11) PR (eq. 14, pg. 10) (pg. 12) (eq. 22, pg. 13) (eq. 6, pg. 8)F Tau-e (eq. 22 & 23, pg. 13) Value from personal comm from Erling. Ve (pg. 12) (pg. 12)> wr (eq. 21, pg. 12) Value from personal comm with Erling.f e0 (pg. 11) Value from personal comm with Erling. equals initial emissions/initial output = 5/15 Ceeo (pg. 11) Ceo (pg. 11) mi (eq. 17, pg. 11) Tau-A (pg. 10) Kgp (eq. 6, pg. 8) gP (eq. 13, pg. 10) pe (pg. 11, 12) err (eq. 22, pg. 13)R P (pg. 11) Can be interpreted as a tax rate on emissions-producing resources.<g<A #< AB`C?B>pA?L>{n?A;C`AHE>L>??L> #<A1l?HB @?7L ///---\\\ :L<%^E!@ 1:Current.vdf 9:Current 15:0,0,0,0 19:100,0 4:Time 5:Output