÷H(Thu Mar 26 11:18:42 1998) From sat eve post.vmfe, ù€û¨û¨û³û¨ûU¡7L¿ ȼ\ijkWXZ[\`V^_ÛxyvptŽ``    4€?4 U X4Ó€ö€öPì J P4É€ö€öDì k h4é€ö€ö9qì ` `4Ý€ö€öfì  €ö€ö¼Š%€ö€ö)&ü$,U„7Í€ö€ö3*ü .ëJ_€ö€ö%ü(3Ç2 6ë4€ö€öiü 8Ãê,ˆ€ö€öG4ü$>€ö€ö¼ ‡@€ö€ö¼ ‡C€ö€ö¼ ‡FG) €ö€ö2pü,Kvm:À€ö€öTü(R€ö€ö¼ ‡YV3€ö€ö+'ü,deH€ö€öN7ü$mˆ qûÅ49€ö€öü(s¬@4€ö€ö$ü ygÇ$€ö€öKü(~Æ$L€ö€öNü(…ˆ\+€ö€öT:ü$—¹7:€ö€ö?0ü ‘,Ç€ö€öVü(›§q;€ö€öjü$¢£7€ö€öü ¤ 4Z›€ö€ö ü(ª€ö€ö¼ ‡¯Õ$€ö€öŸQü,¶\³0€ö€öÄWü,½Åô;€ö€öþgü,ÃÛŒ0f€ö€ögAü,Ì^0ë€ö€ö…Jü,ÕòŸ'\€ö€öJ5ü$àp¬,:€ö€ö° ü(é1Æ,³€ö€öíü(ô€ö€ö¼ ‡ù ®$‰€ö€ö¬Sü,ÑaÛ€ö€öZ;ü,‡ €ö€ö-(ü,"¸$ €ö€ö\ü(æý¡€ö€öR9ü$eš:€ö€ö¢Rü %ª,€ö€ömwü,.Fã0Ñ€ö€öödü$5Ô$I€ö€öYü(:€ö€ö¼ ‡={öï€ö€ö¼Vü$@"4*€ö€öü(B˜ÿ4€ö€övEü H€ö€ö¼ ‡L€ö€ö¼ ‡Q®,+€ö€öü S¹7<€ö€ö ü UÄ $M€ö€ö ü WÏ(,^€ö€ö ü YÚ1,o€ö€ö!ü [å:,€€ö€ö"ü ]ðC,‘€ö€ö#ü _ûL¢€ö€öA1ü aX:·€ö€ö¾ ü(ge7€ö€öXü$l*{=€ö€öÌYü$o€ö€ö¼ ‡q`Œ,Û€ö€ö5+ü sk•,î€ö€ö7,ü uvž,€ö€ö9-ü w§,€ö€ö;.ü yŒ°,'€ö€ö=/ü {¢ÁAL€ö€öHü }€ö€ö¼ ‡€­ÊE^€ö€öC2ü ‚¸Õs€ö€öE3ü „ ,³€ö€öP8ü$‹/ H:¬€ö€öQü(O†"€ö€ö™Nü ;?Ý€ö€öL6ü$£ö $÷€ö€öÁ ü(©zLAï€ö€ö¶Tü,±Ð7T€ö€öƒIü ³$Ac€ö€ö"%ü,¼_,€ö€öúü(Å29']€ö€öÙZü$Çè4'Ž€ö€öÜ[ü$ɪo, €ö€öüü(Ò#,'>€ö€ökü$Ô¤Ç'\€ö€ö"lü$ÖÁ=€ö€öøeü$Øæj7€ö€ö}Fü äð¬€ö€öjBü,ð–)7›€ö€öhü ÷ D ù%Ç¡€ö€ölCü$ZÚ,Ý€ö€önü( Ü÷'Ø€ö€öâ]ü$ XT'’€ö€öå^ü$ wê,û€ö€öpü(Íê'¹€ö€ö(nü$*i'÷€ö€ö+oü$Žø,€ö€örü(", €ö€öè_ü$)¡,6€ö€ötü(1Âß,š€ö€öetü$8´,S€ö€öyü(AN'Ì€ö€öß\ü$CÑ),q€ö€ö{ü(L÷A'­€ö€ö%mü$NœŠ,î€ö€ö0ü(V³,€ö€ö.ü(_ñr7€ö€öGü k9t€ö€ö•Lü$nÍ€ö€öHrü rD}J€ö€ö—Mü yZN-€ö€ö›Oü ¼,K€ö€ö³ ü(‰³Ô'{€ö€öcsü$‹†é,*€ö€öñaü,•AJ7|€ö€öcü$}T Ÿga,±€ö€öjvü,©…{7×€ö€öbü$±Ð®€ö€öºUü$´í·€ö€ö“Kü$¶ÖAM€ö€ö_=ü ¸¡1S´€ö€öa>ü ºq Ao€ö€öc?ü ¼|A…€ö€öe@ü ¾·H,Ê€ö€öê`ü$ÈÂS0€ö€ö1)ü,Ðú7i€ö€ö]<ü Ùüz,ï€ö€öguü$ã ):y€ö€ö ü(êÀ €ö¼Šíó€ö¼Š,œÜŒ< \ì|ÌLì¼ü<ìü ,<L̬ìÌŒ¬ܬ¼ÌÜì \,¼lœ<<ü ¼\l|Œœ<l|¬ŒÜü¼<,|üœ¬¬LŒ¬\¼|lLüÌÌŒ<œÜl|<||üŒÌÜ,ŒœìœÜì,ül¬¼ìŒL \L,,¼¬ü L¼Ìl\\lœœÜìLl|,Ü Ì\\L C¡7L¿77ÈñSUMPRODVMINVMAXTimeINITIAL TIMEFINAL TIMETIME STEP SAVEPER.Sat eve postAdvertising Rate ChangeBAdvertising Rate PULSESTChange in Readers-$ -page -YearThousand ReadersTotal Readers Reported-thousand subscriptions*Advertising Rate Per Thousand Readers"Change in Total Expense ReportedIF THEN ELSETAccounting PeriodTotal ExpenseTotal Expense Reported&Circulation Promotion Expense ChangeC&Circulation Promotion Expense RateSubscription Rate ChangeASubscription Rate-subscriptionInitial Total ExpenseProduction Expense RateSelling Expense Rate Depreciation Charge Rate"General and Admin Expenses Rate*Change in Regular Subscription Pipeout"Last Regular Subscriber Batch*Regular Subscription Expiring Pipeout-SubscriptionsInitial Total RevenueCirculation Revenue RateAdvertising Revenue RateTotal Revenue Reported"Change in Total Revenue ReportedInitial Total Readers"Trial Subscription Selling RateRevenue Closing BalanceTotal Revenue -Dollar OUT T 0T 0Flushing Interval-Time Unit-DimensionlessA0A1A2A3A4A5A6C0Previous AP ReadersProfit Margin Pulso-1B0B1B2B3B4G0 -PagesC1C2Change in Total ReadersTotal Readers0Initial Circulation Promotion ExpenseChange in RevenuePrevious AP RevenueMagazine Volume Page RateG1"Advertising Pages Selling Rate"Second Regular Subscriber BatchR1R2"Second Trial Subscriber BatchT1T2ROUT.Fraction of Revenue Charged to Depreciation.Editing Printing and Distrib Expense RateSpecial Events SwitchstepExpense Closing Balance"Fifth Regular Subscriber BatchR4R5Fifth Trial Subscriber BatchT4T5"First Regular Subscriber BatchRegular Subscriber InputFirst Trial Subscriber BatchTrial Subscriber Input"Fourth Regular Subscriber BatchR3"Fourth Trial Subscriber BatchT3Third Trial Subscriber Batch"Third Regular Subscriber Batch,Fraction of Revenue Spent on Gen and Admin IN T 0Time UnitInitial Advertising RateInitial Subscription RateLast Trial Subscriber BatchTOUT&Regular Subscription Selling RateRelative Growth in Revenuezidz&Trial Subscription Expire PipeoutRelative Growth in Readers OUT TIN TD0D1D2D3&Regular Subscription Expiration RateAdvertising Selling Expense"Commission on Advertising Sales&Trial Subscription Expiration RatePotential Subscribers .Control.Saturday6¡7L¿ ‡¡7L¿__ÈZ,<L| ,<|,L,LL,LL\,$ìLL'ìL,ŒL0L4Ü7ì:œL= LA,ì E,<J,L\N|  ,LS,Lì¡7L¿È¡7L¿€€d,ììììììì lœ<<œl¬lü<lŒÌŒì¬¬ü|ŒÌ\\\\\ü<<<ÌlÜ|ìl,üŒ\ü|¬¬¬¬¬lÜ|ÜœÌÌüœŒŒ¼œ¬ŒŒlÜ lœ<<l<œŒl¼¬ìLlÜì |ÌlܼlLl||,¼Ü<ì\¼¬,lülÜÌüŒ, ÌÜ,Œœü L¼ÌÜܼ¼ll||ÌÜÜL¼œì ÜìL|ÌÜ lܬ<\Ìü,¬<\ ì,Llœ<<l<lœŒüìì\<\¬<¬Ì,LŒllŒl̼lœ<<ül<œŒl,LŒœlœ|<<<,\<ll<œ¬|üÌüÜLìÌ |¬<ÌÌÜܼìl\L ,ücaÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Times New RomanAccounting Information Flowsebÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Times New Roman.dMeasures of Performancegdÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Times New Roman=dManaged Variablesofÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Times New RomanuRelationships with the Environmentwhÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Times New Roman¸Pipeout "-8?FQ\gr}„‹–¤¬·¿Ì×âíø &.6>FMT[bipw~†‘™ «²½ÈÏ×Þåíôû #.5=DKRZahntz€†Œ’˜ž¤ª°¶¼ÂÈÎÔÚàæìòøþ "(.4<BHNTZ`flrx~„Š–œ¢¨®´ºÀÆÌÒØÞäêðöü -H¡7L¿ÙÙÈL Iî" lI L(*( \Щf ÿ€€€€€€ *( L9ÓA ÿ€€€€€€ *( 옩o ÿ€€€€€€  ìvà" lvôN ÿ*( ¼÷Ž ÿ€€€€€€ *( œîZ2 ÿ€€€€€€ *( ÉÂÿy ÿ€€€€€€ *( ¬£Ãÿ^ ÿ€€€€€€ *( <C‡ ÿ€€€€€€  ,4yl |2\g*( ì¹G= ÿ€€€€€€  |µñ< Ì1ë: ÿ 0é?ÿ*( ¬ÇGg ÿ€€€€€€  0ì’ÿ0( l ³ ÿ€€€€€€ *( l®C ÿ€€€€€€ *( lÆ0 ÿ€€€€€€ *( Ìò+C ÿ€€€€€€ *( œË~2 ÿ€€€€€€ *( Ì,OÿC ÿ€€€€€€  Ì:@" :PO  A’" A¢P  ÜÑä< 0Ö±ÿ 0Ò)ÿ 0Íÿ 0Рÿ 0C´" |CÇO  |0" Œ0)A  Œ3%" œ35Q ÿ œ4Ÿ" ¬4¯k ÿ 0§îÿ*( ÌÊEC ÿ€€€€€€  0Íàÿ l÷i? ÿ*( ¼Î§ ÿ€€€€€€  üÂî@ ÿ*( œMP2 ÿ€€€€€€ *( Ìd¡C ÿ€€€€€€  ¼§ÿ2 0W©ÿÿ 0’©ÿ" L’¼ÿ  0Ьÿÿ 0†©ÿ" <†½ÿ  œ‘Oÿ ÿ*( œÕOÿ2 ÿ€€€€€€ *( lTk ÿ€€€€€€ *( lL  ÿ€€€€€€ *( œ;2 ÿ€€€€€€  ,äð< 0ÿíÿ 0Rí" <R N( ìæ< 0ßÿ 0nâ" œnþL(FD£âFEd@âBAd)íB@€í94d\©ÿ98ª©ÿ65du©ÿ64¶©ÿµ@d@µ’d’$Ñ´$ d ´&Ñ&"dÿ(Ñ%(!d%*ÑŸ*#dŸ,wîdî. àd>à£|9˜Óv %Cò )3Y*2} &û &xýÿŠu+1Óí{ø/ ()/N+/ %/™'/ Ä1Í1#31Å4:J×ÿ<9»ƒÿ9Eyÿ;6‘tÿ0B²@C²&B0¡-`-B7’C•_0°nœDG̓ƒ²  ’ FJ’FYF=£@+¤á@(¢þ(1GÒIz6£rn æ ÿÿ Replicated by Julio Gomes and David Sirkin, MIT System Dynamics Groupzx *(ô ÿÿfrom Roger Hall's ASQ article, "The Rise and Fall of the Saturday Evening Post",Ø &1<GR]hs~‰”›¢©°·¾ÅÌÓÞåëñ÷ý !'-39?EKQW]H¡7L¿œœÈc*( ,·6U ÿ€€€€€€ *( l¿›T ÿ€€€€€€  |‚`* ÿ*( 츂U ÿ€€€€€€ *( ¼PÌ ÿ€€€€€€ *( ¼Dsÿ ÿ€€€€€€ *( Ì€—C ÿ€€€€€€ *( œÐsÿ2 ÿ€€€€€€ *( ÌfóÿC ÿ€€€€€€ *( üÓI ÿ€€€€€€ *( ü¦âÿI ÿ€€€€€€ *( lD ÿ€€€€€€ *( L¨DH ÿ€€€€€€  |¦Ïÿ< 0´Ñÿÿ 0 Òÿ" l åÿ<  ürÄÿV ÿ l¨1< 0¬3ÿ 03" F; *( œ×Ë2 ÿ€€€€€€  ,e0U ÿÜdá3C3kÿdáÒÿ>Òÿ\úÿIBIzAûE‚Ö>‚tqãøaC#;¡ÿÞÿ Ä Ü› %,3:AHOV]dkr}„–¤«²¹ÀÌÓÞåðû#)/5;AGMSY_ekqw}ƒ‰•›¡§­H¡7L¿jjȳ LIz< ìHA< O_ 02vÿ 04<ÿ 0.ÿ 0žv" ,žŠQ  ,¡>" Ì¡RM  ̨" ü¨1^( ¬÷U ÿ ¼uEg ÿ Œ÷:Z ÿ*( oEY ÿ€€€€€€  L E ÿ*( ¬ö‚g ÿ€€€€€€  ü²ö ÿ œ:ø ÿ ¼ÓÃJ ÿ ¬Û‹F ÿ \ã\R <JÏ ÿ ¡í ÿ,( œHð2 ÿ€€€€€€  ÜKŸ ÿ*( ?kD ÿ€€€€€€  Iw ÿ*( Ÿ$ ÿ€€€€€€ *( ¨È ÿ€€€€€€ *( œNÇ2 ÿ€€€€€€ *( œD(2 ÿ€€€€€€  Dl Ï Dk> Ù>DivØv \v röe¾1½›Æ]À'߬¾ vn ZžG ¡ ¨é Úÿ!á2 åÏ ³x  ~ h`Ôi %,3:AHOZelsz…›¦­´»ÂÌÓÚáì÷þ ")07>ELSZalszŒ“›¢©°»ÆÑÜçòý !'-39?EKQW]cjpv|‚ˆŽ”𠦬²¸¾ÄÊÐÖÜâèîôú $*08>DJH¡7L¿ÈP L@2 ÜA2 ÜG! ì¨Y( ìKŠ! \÷ŠL( \‘! ÌÉ‘L( Ìh~! œÈ~X(*( ·LS€€€€€€ *( Œ¤9c ÿ€€€€€€  <¥È[ Œkta \†j; ÿ*( ŒSyc ÿ€€€€€€ *(  y ÿ€€€€€€ *( LªA ÿ€€€€€€ *( ìk= ÿ€€€€€€  09`ÿ 0 aÿ 0¡`" ¬¡s^ $ l†Ä ÿ \BÄ ÿ |ÈÄ ÿ Œ Å ÿ*( Œ,_€€€€€€ *( L N ÿ€€€€€€  \Æ4 ÿ ¤_ ÿ ,‰4 ÿ*( L cN ÿ€€€€€€ *( L1c6 ÿ€€€€€€  ì^ý ÿ ür" ÿ Ž3 ÿ ¨B ÿ ,Ç) ÿ <ä# ÿ Lóý ÿ LßÊ? ÿ ¬Âð ÿ*( üû|^ ÿ€€€€€€  ¼Ü ÿ Ìô ÿ Ü.í ÿ*( L¤EN ÿ€€€€€€  ì ÿ lßg2 0×bÿ 0Ad" <AxM *( œ2 ÿ€€€€€€ *( ÜÎé^€€€€€€ *( œÈ‘2 ÿ€€€€€€ *( Ì—ËC ÿ€€€€€€ *( ¼ ÿ€€€€€€ *( œÉ¤2 ÿ€€€€€€ *( œÉ¤2 ÿ€€€€€€ 42zd43d d dhV hÅdGGd`ÎdKK7 ˜± k{k73n=,Õ`Dn`Uš¿šW>á>‡ û¥ ­ ¤ ›! 5" œ#ˆÕ$ŽÞ%œô&¨ô'°é(·á)ÍÕ*´û+ßÐ0í\-çÛ.ôß/ É1Û*2ߦ25†— ¤u5@Ê64}6:4 095ª7%Ó °K2W“ËŠ*2æªÔ *5@KValw~…Œ“𡍝¶½ÄÌÓÚáèïöý  '.9DKValszˆ“›¢©°·¾ÅÌÓÚáèïöý  '.9DOZepw~…Œ—¢©´¿ÊÕàëö "-39?EKQW]ciou{‡“™Ÿ¥«±·½ÃÉÏÕÛáçíóùÿ #)/5;AGMSY_ekqw}ƒ‰•›¡§­³¹¿ÅËÑÙßåëñ÷ý !'-39?H¡7L¿¨¨ÈE*( \þÞÿf ÿ€€€€€€ *( \žÿÆÿf ÿ€€€€€€ *( \жÿf ÿ€€€€€€ *( \cŸÿf ÿ€€€€€€ *( \ýpÿf ÿ€€€€€€ *( \Šþªf ÿ€€€€€€ *( \ƒÿŒÿf ÿ€€€€€€ *( \ØÿŒÿf ÿ€€€€€€ *( ì¦þüo ÿ€€€€€€ *( ìàþÿo ÿ€€€€€€  ü¬þ5< Ü:Ï< 0ºýGÿ 0»ý*ÿ ì]ÿ3< \6< <Á6< ¬k2< Ì1< Ìüþ3" üüþG  ü¯ÿ5" ¯ÿI  g5" LgI  L2" ¼F  ¼Á2" ÌÁF  ¬•þdÿ2 0¾ýeÿÿ 0þcÿ" Œþwÿ  0pÿcÿÿ 0ÿbÿ" œÿuÿ *( œþÿ) ÿ€€€€€€ *( œmÿÿ2 ÿ€€€€€€  ŒÂÁ ÿ*( lÝÀ ÿ€€€€€€ *( œÂ2 ÿ€€€€€€ *( ìŽÿo ÿ€€€€€€  0¦2ÿ 0v3" ÜvG  Ùÿf ÿ*( \þýÜf ÿ€€€€€€  Ü·þQ< ÜþL" ìþ`M  04Ñÿ ¼rÿQ< l"T< ØT< |ƒS< Ì>R< ÌÿP" Ìÿd  ÌÆÿP" ÜÆÿd  ÜoL" ,o_  ,)L" Œ)`  ŒÛP" œÛd  0ÅQÿ 0–Q" –e *( L9IH ÿ€€€€€€ *( \©þ×f ÿ€€€€€€ *( ìþ¬o ÿ€€€€€€ *( œÍý) ÿ€€€€€€ *( ìÞo ÿ€€€€€€ *( ìo ÿ€€€€€€  ìþ-" þAD  ‘Õ" ¼‘ñY(*( \)Gf ÿ€€€€€€ *( œ’J2 ÿ€€€€€€  ¼Ãþÿ3 ÿ*( ¬¾ÿÁ ÿ€€€€€€ *( ¼Ây< ÿ€€€€€€ *( Lú H ÿ€€€€€€ *( \ýf ÿ€€€€€€ *( Lœ H ÿ€€€€€€ *( \ó0f ÿ€€€€€€ *( L[þ!H ÿ€€€€€€ *( \ñþ f ÿ€€€€€€ *( L¸ÿ"H ÿ€€€€€€ *( \òÿFf ÿ€€€€€€ *( L‹H ÿ€€€€€€ *( \fìf ÿ€€€€€€ 94&ÿP90dþþP;5ÙÿP;4d·ÿP=6ˆL=5dcL?7;L?6dLA8ñPA7dÊPDC¬QD8d…Q.'-ø„,K,de3,+3'B—'›'x'ëÿw'¾ÿ™•ç>‘ÿ Ùþd±2Ô2d2$2dU5y5d¡ÿ5Ãÿ5 dïþ3ÿ3 <þcÿ dèýcÿ#"Dÿbÿ#díþbÿ('SÀ)'Âñ…ÿïÿWéÿÞÿ½ÄÿéÙÿ'D[Ë10JþL1 dèýLL Eþ-Ldéý-N ÊÕN3dcÕF 9P ÓöQO“#T'–U7:GV7E5W8ç<X8NY4ÝþFZ4eÿ¬[5éÿH\5Z]6®F^6›-$Ìþ“ÿLþ4<¤ÿ†5>Uƒ6@„7B¼‚8En|0:êþ…H2þŒ8Nî´ OÒ% þ3ÿ&#Rÿ>ÿR#ßþ;ÿS':Á'=€ÿ';)÷'9Äÿç'?þ'Ayü„§H¡7L¿» » Èv :•lG¦€?•| •Ì#% %'%•ܕ앜ü0• •œ¦%'¦À@¦zD•:#•\'•l¦zD:,•Œ'•ì•\Š9•œ¬0 0/•¼•Ì'$•ܕ앜¦zL%•ü%'%• ••œü0• •œzb,•,%'%•<•L•œü0• •œ:x3•ìG•œ•lr‚9•l% ###•|•Œ•œ•¬•Ìj“@•¼'$%•̦ @•Ü•œR¥J•ü%#• ••Ì:±P•,G•<•üR»V•ÜG•¼$•L•\ÒÌ`•l¬0 0-•l#¦ B•œ'•|•œ¬0 0/•¼•Ì'•|•œ¦rçh•œ¬00/•¬•¼'•¬•œ¦*úq•¼¦ÍÌL>*u•<¦* z•ì¦|É*•ü¦…«?*„• ¦ìQ¸½*#‰•¦*,Ž•,¦*5“•<¦*>˜•L¦¬Å§8*G•\¦:P£•lG••LR[«•|'$•,•ì•,ªh±•Œ¬00/•¬•¼%'¦€?•œü0•l•œ¦*µ•ܦ*‡º•¬¦ß@I*¿•¼¦–C =*™Ä•̦*¢É•ܦ^—H*«Î•ì¦@œH*´Ó• ¦*¼Ø•ü¦E*ÅÝ•¦úíë:*Ðã•,¦À£KŠÙ镬0 0/•¼•Ì'$•l•l•œ¦Šîó•<¬0 0/•¼•Ì'$•|•,•œ¦Šù•<¬0 0/•¼•Ì'$•L•l•œ¦:•G•ü•\ú# •l¬0 0-•l#¦ B•œ'$•,•|•œ¬0 0/•¼•Ì'$•,•|•œ¦JC•Œ#•ü%•œ•¬rP•¼G$•Ì•Ü'$•L•\¦ @Zc#•ìG$•ü• '•\¦ @:s,•%•Ì•Œ*z2•œ¦ff¦?R‚7•œ%•,'•,•ÌÒ@•<##•\%%••Œ•L%%•,•L#\0¦€?¦lB\0¦€¿¦„BÒ°K•l¬0 0-•l#¦ B•œ'•Ü•œ¬0 0/•¼•Ì'•Ü•œ¦rËV•|G$•Œ•œ'$•L•\¦ @ZÞ_•¬G$•¼•Ì'•\¦ @Jîh•ÜG$•ì•̦Jüq•üG$• •ü¦r z•G$•,•Œ'$•L•\¦ @Zƒ•<G$•L•¼'•\¦ @:-Œ•Ü%•¼•Œ::“•L%•\•Œ:Gš•,%•l•ŒRT¡•¬%•|'•,•Ì:b©•Ì%•¬•Œ*o°•Œ•œ*x´•¬¦X˜F*¹•\¦ÀádK*о•¼¦¸E@*•ÕL¦@]FJrÇ•ÌG$•œ•'$•L•\¦ @Z°Î•ÌG$•Ì•Ü'•\¦ @:ÀÕ• %•알:ÍÜ•Ü%•Ì•Œ*Úã• •\:ãꕼ%•<•Œ:ðñ•Œ%••Œ*ýø• ¦4B:ü•|G•l•ü*•ì•ìJ •¬G$•Œ•œ¦:%•ü%•ü•Œ:2•Ì%•Ü•ŒZ?•ü 0$•,•|•|:M'•œ%•|•Œ:Z.•%•̦ @:e3•lG•<•LZp;•, 0$•l•l•lZ~C•\G$• •L'•\¦ @rŽJ•lG$•Ü•,'$•L•\¦ @r¡Q•<¬00/•¼•Ì'•¼•œ¦4²X•L•œJ»\•¼G$•L•<¦*Èc•œ¦€?*Ñg•\¦HF2Úm•¬##•\%•l•Œ%# %•|#\0¦€?¦$B\0¦€¿¦(B%•Œ#\0¦€?¦(B\0¦€¿¦4B•L*v•|¦àƒÄ*|•Œ¦²Ã:‚•%•¬•ì*$ˆ•L¦*,Ž•l¦@vÄ*;”•̦€?*C˜•œ•Ü:L•¬%•¼•RW£• %#•\•ì•L*eª•,¦ ×#<*m°•|¦ ×#<*u¶•Ì•R~»•\# ##•¬%•¼•%•Ì•Œ%•L# %•Ü#\0¦€?¦,B\0¦€¿¦DB%•ì#\0¦€?¦`B\0¦€¿¦pB*®Å•|•<z·Ê•ÜG $###•|•Œ•œ•¬•l•lúÊÒ•ì##•ì% ##•ü%• •L%••Œ•Ü% ##•,%•<•L%•L•Œ•:íÚ•Œ#••¬Zøá•|G$#• ••l•ü:è•ìG•Ì•¬*¦š™>jô•ÜG$$#•œ•Ì•ì•\¦ ¼¾L:,þ•LG•,•¼j:•LG$$#•\•앜•Ì•L*K•Œ¦pB*S•|¦ B*[•¬¦ÍÌÌ=*c"•œ¦ÍÌL= º H¡7L¿ººÈkV•̸&¸®®•ܸ%¸•ì¸'¸•œ¸%¸•ü¸• ±•œ%¦¸#¸¦À@'¦zD%•‡,'‡<'‡L•\¸&¸•l'¦zD ‡|•Œ¸&¸®®•ì¸'•\‡,'‡<'‡|:•œ¸&¸•¬•¼/•̱¸•Ü$•ì®'•œ±¦‡,'‡L>•ü¸&¸®®• ¸%¸•¸'¸•œ¸%¸•ü¸• ±¸•œ‡,'‡L'‡L:•,¸&®®•<¸%¸•L¸'¸•œ¸%¸•ü¸• ±¸•œ‡,'‡\'‡L'‡L•ì¸&¸G•œ±•l ‡,6•l¸&¸•|¸#¸•Œ¸#¸•œ¸#®¸•¬®¸%¸•Ì ‡,.•¼¸&¸®®•̸%¸¦ @¸$¸•ܸ'¸•œ‡ì'‡L'‡L"•ü¸&¸• ¸#¸•¸%¸•Ì ‡,•,¸&¸G•<±•ü ‡,*•ܸ&¸®®G¸•¼±¸•L¸$¸•\®‡ì'‡LZ•l¸&•¬•l¸-¸¦ B#•œ±•|'•œ±®•¬•¼/•̱•|'•œ±¦‡Œ'‡L:•œ¸&¸®®•¬¸•¬¸/¸•¼±¸•¬¸'¸•œ±¸¦‡Ì'‡Ì•¼¸&¸¦ÍÌL> ‡L•<¸&¸¦ ‡Ü•ì¸&¸$¦|I‡ì'‡L•ü¸&¸¦…«? ‡Ü• ¸&¸$¦ìQ¸= ‡,•¸&¸¦‡ì'‡L•,¸&¸¦‡ì'‡L•<¸&¸¦‡ì'‡L•L¸&¸¦¬Å§8‡ì'‡L•\¸&¸¦‡,'‡L•l¸&¸®®G¸•±¸•L ‡ì&•|¸&¸®®•,¸$¸•ì¸'¸•, ‡ÜJ•Œ¸&¸•¬•¬/•¼±¦€?'•œ%•ü•l±¸•œ±¦‡œ'‡L•ܸ&¦ ‡Ü•¬¸&¸¦ß@I‡ì'‡L•¼¸&¸¦–C =‡ì'‡L•̸&¸¦‡ì'‡L•ܸ&¸¦^—H‡ì'‡L•ì¸&¸¦@œH‡ì'‡L• ¸&¸¦ ‡Ü•ü¸&¸¦E‡ '‡L•¸&¸¦úíë:‡,'‡ %‡ì•,¸&¸¦À£K‡,'‡LB•¸&®®•¬¸•¼¸/¸•̱¸•l¸$¸•l¸'¸•œ®±¸¦‡ì'‡L:•<¸&•¬•¼/•̱¸•|$•,®'•œ±¦‡,'‡LF•<¸&¸®®¸•¬•¼¸/¸•̱¸•L¸$¸•l¸'¸•œ®±¸¦‡ì'‡L•¸&¸®®G¸•ü±¸•\‡,'‡Ln•l¸&¸®•¬•l-¦ B#•œ±•,$•|¸'¸•œ±•¬®¸•¼¸/•̱®•,$•|¸'¸•œ±¸¦‡,'‡L"•Œ¸&¸®®•ü¸#¸•œ¸%¸•¬‡ '‡L:•¼¸&¸®®G¸•̸$¸•ܱ¸•L¸$¸•\¸'¸¦ @‡ì'‡L.•ì¸&¸®®G¸•ü¸$¸• ±¸•\¸'¸¦ @‡ì'‡L•¸&¸•̸%¸•Œ•œ¸&¸¦ff¦? ‡Ü&•œ¸&¸®®•,¸%¸•,¸'¸•̇Œ'‡Ln•<¸&¸®®•\¸#¸•¸%¸•Œ¸%¸•L¸#¸•,¸%¸•L¸%¸•\¸¦€?±¸¦lB¸#¸•\®¸$¦€?±¸¦„B‡,'‡LZ•l¸&¸•¬•l¸-¸¦ B#•œ±•Ü'•œ±•¬•¼/®•̱•Ü'•œ±¦‡,'‡L:•|¸&¸®®G¸•Œ¸$¸•œ±¸•L¸$¸•\¸'¸¦ @‡ì'‡L.•¬¸&¸®®G¸•¼¸$¸•̱¸•\¸'¸¦ @‡ì'‡L&•ܸ&¸®®G¸•ì¸$¸•̱¸¦‡ì'‡L&•ü¸&¸®®G¸• ¸$¸•ü±¸¦‡ì'‡L:•¸&¸®®G¸•,¸$¸•Œ±¸•L¸$¸•\¸'¸¦ @‡ì'‡L.•<¸&¸®®G¸•L¸$¸•¼±¸•\¸'¸¦ @‡ì'‡L•ܸ&¸•¼¸%¸•Œ‡ì'‡L%‡L•L¸&¸•\¸%¸•Œ‡ì'‡L%‡L•,¸&¸•l¸%¸•Œ‡ì'‡L%‡L&•¬¸&¸®®•|¸%¸•,¸'¸•̇Œ'‡L•̸&¸•¬¸%¸•Œ‡ì'‡L%‡L•Œ¸&¸•œ‡L'‡L•¬¸&¸¦X˜F‡,'‡<•\¸&¸¦ÀádK‡,'‡L•¼¸&¸¦¸E@‡,'‡\'‡L•L¸&¸¦@]FJ ‡ì:•̸&¸®®G¸•œ¸$¸•±¸•L¸$¸•\¸'¸¦ @‡ì'‡L.•̸&¸®®G¸•̸$¸•ܱ¸•\¸'¸¦ @‡ì'‡L• ¸&¸•ì¸%¸•Œ‡ì'‡L%‡L•ܸ&¸•̸%¸•Œ‡ì'‡L%‡L• ¸&¸•\‡ì'‡L•¼¸&¸•<¸%¸•Œ‡ì'‡L%‡L•Œ¸&¸•¸%¸•Œ‡ì'‡L%‡L• ¸&¸¦4B ‡L•|¸&¸®®G¸•l±•ü ‡,•ì¸&¸•ì‡ì'‡L"•¬¸&¸®®G¸•Œ$•œ±¦ ‡L•ü¸&¸•ü¸%¸•Œ‡ì'‡L%‡L•̸&¸•ܸ%¸•Œ‡ì'‡L%‡L*•ü¸&®®• ¸•,¸$¸•|±¸•| ‡Ü•œ¸&¸•|¸%¸•Œ‡ì'‡L%‡L•¸&¸•̸%¸¦ @‡ì'‡L•l¸&¸®®G¸•<±¸•L ‡ì*•,¸&®®• ¸•l¸$¸•l±¸•l ‡Ü.•\¸&¸®®G¸• ¸$¸•L±¸•\¸'¸¦ @‡ì'‡L:•l¸&¸®®G¸•ܸ$¸•,±¸•L¸$¸•\¸'¸¦ @‡ì'‡L2•<¸&¸•¬•¼/•̱•¼'•œ±¦‡Ì'‡Ì•L¸&¸•œ‡L'‡L&•¼¸&¸®®G¸•L¸$¸•<¸±¦ ‡L•œ¸&¸¦€?‡L'‡L•\¸&¸¦HF‡ '‡L¢•¬¸&¸®®•\¸#¸•l¸%¸•Œ¸#¸•|¸%¸•\¸¦€?±¸¦$B¸#¸•\¸$¦€?±¸¦(B¸#¸•Œ¸%¸•\¸®¦€?±¸¦(B¸#¸•\¸$¦€?±¸¦4B¸%¸•L‡ '‡L•|¸&¸$¦àƒD‡ '‡L•Œ¸&¸$¦²C‡ '‡L•¸&®®•¬¸%¸•ì‡,'‡L•L¸&¸¦ ‡Ü•l¸&¹$¦@vD&‡ %‡ %‡|'‡L%‡,•̸&¸¦€? ‡L•œ¸&¸•܇ì'‡L•¬¸&¸®®•¼¸%¸•‡Œ'‡L&• ¸&¸®®•\¸#¸•ì¸%¸•L‡,'‡L•,¸&¸®®¦ ×#< ‡Ü•|¸&¸®®¦ ×#< ‡Ü•̸&¸•‡ì'‡L®•\¸&®®•¬¸#¸•¼¸%¸•¸#¸•̸%¸•Œ¸#¸•L®¸%¸•ܸ%¸•\¸¦€?±¦,B¸#¸•\¸$¦€?±¸¦DB¸#¸•ì¸%¸•\¸¦€?±¸¦`B¸#¸•\¸$¦€?±¸¦pB‡ì'‡L•|¸&¸®•<‡Œ'‡L>•ܸ&¸®®G¸•|¸#¸•Œ¸#¸•œ¸#¸•¬®¸$¸•l±•l ‡,z•ì¸&¸®®•ì¸#¸•ü¸#¸• ¸%¸•L¸#¸•¸%¸•Œ¸%¸•Ü®¸#¸•,¸#¸•<¸%¸•L¸#¸•L¸%¸•Œ¸%¸•‡ì'‡L•Œ¸&¸®®•¸#¸•¬‡,'‡L.•|¸&¸G¸• ¸#¸•¸$¸•l®±•ü ‡,•ì¸&¸®®G¸•̱¸•¬‡,'‡<•¼¸&¸¦š™> ‡Ü6•ܸ&®®G¸•œ¸#¸•̸$¸•쮸$¸•\±¸¦ ¼¾L ‡ì•L¸&¸®®G¸•,±¸•¼‡,'‡ì'‡L6•L¸&¸®®G¸•\¸#¸•ì¸$¸•œ®¸$¸•̱¸•L ‡ì•Œ¹&¸¦pB ‡L•|¹&¸¦ B ‡L•¬¹&¸¦ÍÌÌ= ‡L•œ¹&¸¦ÍÌL= ‡L4¹H¡7L¿€ € ÈZ &Internally defined simulation time.Change in advertising ratesFHow much the reported expense will change from a year to the other>This is the rate of change of circulation promotion expenseBThis is how much we want to pulse the subscription rate change>This is the total expense reported at the end of the year²This structure was used to eliminate the simultaneous equation in the macro pipeout for regular subscriptions pipeout (see macro in the diagram provided last class)ZThis is how much revenue we have in the begining through subscriptions and advertisingJThis is the total revenue reported at the end of each accounting periodvThis is the result from the pipeline delay to define what is the rate of subscriptions expiring every yearvThis is the flush out of revenue. That is the revenue closing balance at the end of the accounting period.¦This is the flushing rate for one of the control variables that control the flushing in the pipeline delay function (macro in the original dynamo model)FStep Height in the pulse formulation for subscription rate changeBRegresssion coefficients for regular subscriptions sold equationBRegresssion coefficients for regular subscriptions sold equationBRegresssion coefficients for regular subscriptions sold equationBRegresssion coefficients for regular subscriptions sold equationBRegresssion coefficients for regular subscriptions sold equationBRegresssion coefficients for regular subscriptions sold equationBRegresssion coefficients for regular subscriptions sold equationRRegression coefficients for the editing printing & distributing expense equationVThis is the number of readers we had at the end of the previous accounting period6Step height for the advertising rate change equationJRegression coefficient for the trial subscriptions selling rate equationJRegression coefficient for the trial subscriptions selling rate equationJRegression coefficient for the trial subscriptions selling rate equationJRegression coefficient for the trial subscriptions selling rate equationJRegression coefficient for the trial subscriptions selling rate equationFStep height to the change in circulation promotion expense equationFRegression coefficients for the magazine volume page rate equationRRegression coefficients for the editing printing & distributing expense equationRRegression coefficients for the editing printing & distributing expense equationbThis structure calculates the relative change in readers compared to the last Accounting PeriodFHow much the reported revenue will change from a year to the otherNHow much the number of reported readers will change from a year to the otherVThis is how much the firm spends on promotion expenses to obtain more subscribersFThis is tohe rate that updates the revenue every accounting periodJThis is the regression equation to define the magazine volume page ratevThis is one of the six stocks in the pipeline delay function for regular subscribers time in the system.rThis is one of the six stocks in the pipeline delay function for trial subscribers time in the system.ZThis is a function for one pice of the pipeline delay function for regular subscribers.FRegression coefficients for the magazine volume page rate equationbThis is how much it depreciates in a year. It is modelled as a fraction of reported revenues.†This is the regression equation to determie what is the expense rate in editing, printing, and distributing the magazine.îThis the flush out of total revenue at the end of one accounting period. The author decided to do a discrete formulation. This is the continuous pulse function that we have in dynamo but we do not have it in Vensim.vThis is one of the six stocks in the pipeline delay function for regular subscribers time in the system.rThis is one of the six stocks in the pipeline delay function for trial subscribers time in the system.vThis is one of the six stocks in the pipeline delay function for regular subscribers time in the system.rThis is one of the six stocks in the pipeline delay function for trial subscribers time in the system.vThis is one of the six stocks in the pipeline delay function for regular subscribers time in the system.rThis is one of the six stocks in the pipeline delay function for trial subscribers time in the system.zThis is a piece of the regular subscribtion pipeline delay used to figure out regular subscribers expiring ratezThis is a piece of the trial subscribtion pipeline delay used to figure out regular subscribers expiring ratezThis is a piece of the regular subscribtion pipeline delay used to figure out regular subscribers expiring rate.This is modeled as a fraction of revenueszThis is a piece of the trial subscribtion pipeline delay used to figure out regular subscribers expiring rate.This is the initial advertising rate (price)*This is the initial expense in promotion2This is how much is charged for a subscriptionBThis is a piece of the pipeout delay for regular subscribers.BThis is a piece of the pipeout delay for regular subscribers.zThis is a piece of the trial subscribtion pipeline delay used to figure out regular subscribers expiring ratezThis is a piece of the trial subscribtion pipeline delay used to figure out regular subscribers expiring ratezThis is a piece of the regular subscribtion pipeline delay used to figure out regular subscribers expiring ratezThis is a piece of the trial subscribtion pipeline delay used to figure out regular subscribers expiring ratezThis is a piece of the regular subscribtion pipeline delay used to figure out regular subscribers expiring rateLThis is the revenue we generated in the previous accounting period.zThis is a piece of the regular subscribtion pipeline delay used to figure out regular subscribers expiring rateNThis is the control variable to control the flush out of a some variableszThis is a piece of the trial subscribtion pipeline delay used to figure out regular subscribers expiring ratezThis is a piece of the regular subscribtion pipeline delay used to figure out regular subscribers expiring rateVThis is the relative growth in revenue from accounting period to accounting periodzThis is a piece of the regular subscribtion pipeline delay used to figure out regular subscribers expiring rate:This is the rate of subscriptions that expire every yearZThis is the total number of subscriptions reported at the end of an accounting period.ZThis is the relative growth in subscriptions from accounting period to accounting periodJThis is one pice of the pipeline delay function for trial subscribersJThis is one pice of the pipeline delay function for regular subscribers’This is the flushing rate for one of the control variables that control the flushing in revenue or expenses, etc in an account periodNThis is the control variable to control the flush out of a some variablesVThis is the regression coefficient for the advertising pages selling rate equation.Number of pages of advertising sold per yearVThis is the regression coefficient for the advertising pages selling rate equationVThis is the regression coefficient for the advertising pages selling rate equationbThis is a switch that turns on the war events and other special events described in the articleVThis is the regression coefficient for the advertising pages selling rate equationBThis the number of regular subscriptions that expire every yearNThis is how much the company makes per year fromthe subscriptions it sellsBThis is the rate of trial subscriptions that expire every yearzThis is the rate of trial subscriptions that the company sells and is calculated using a regression equation.*This is the total expense of the companyBThis is the number of regular subscriptions we sell every year6Those are the expense we incur to sell the magazinesVThis the total revenue of the company which is flushed out every accounting period&$ charged per page of advertising>This is the comission we pay on advertising sales to others†This is the potential market for the company. We set the initial value as a big number assuming that the market is huge.BThis is how much the company charges for a yearly subscriptionNThis is the total number of readers (subscriptions) that the company sold" Simulation Control Paramaters&The final time for the simulation.&The initial time for the simulation..The frequency with which output is stored.&The time step for the simulation.š Replicated by Julio Gomes and David Sirkin, MIT System Dynamics Group, from Roger Hall's ASQ article, "The Rise and Fall of the Saturday Evening Post" "Roger's model has a few problems in units and we kept them. We were able to replicate the behavior in the ASQ paper however, our problem shows a different behavior in relative growth of revenue to period 3. We were not able to find out why." €ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö|É…«?ìQ¸½¬Å§8€?€ö€ö€ö€ö€öß@I–C =^—H@œHúíë:À£K€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€öš™>HF@vÄàƒÄ²Ã€ö€ö€öpBÍÌL> ×#< ×#<Eff¦?€ö€ö€öX˜FÀádK¸E@ B€ö@]FJ€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€öÍÌÌ=€ö4B€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€öÍÌL=€?€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö¡7L¿ È///---\\\ :L<%^E!@ 9:Current 15:0,0,0,0 19:100,0 4:Time 5:Relative Growth in Readers