÷H(Mon Apr 13 12:01:34 1998) From MktGrow3.vmfe,Z}R~öö€ö =¡7L¿llÈ ¼3'&%(#$:;-*)+w}AB@=Td``    2€? s•2€ö€öV&\ @v2€ö€ö#\ Bç2€ö€öž;\ õ¯2€ö€ö4\$ €ö€ö¼Š$€ö€ö\('Ïí.˜€ö€ö^)\$,Ë>.Ý€ö€öD\,1€ö€ö¼ ‡4) €ö€ö\ :€ö€ö¼ ‡=4#€ö€ö \$@òI.ì€ö€öI\(GƒX9O€ö€öx.\ MK„+)€ö€öR$\$T€ö€ö¼ ‡V€ö€ö¼ ‡YG0)€ö€ö \$`B6.€ö€ök\(c]?2€ö€ön-\ j\>>€ö€ö \,ro^Z€ö€ö\ |3Ó+!€ö€ö&\,ƒ(È+€ö€ö$\ ‰€ö€ö¼ ‡jv€ö€ö\$‘BÜ(1€ö€ö(\,˜„(z€ö€ö3\(£¸(Ú€ö€ö \ ©€ö€ö¼ ‡¬¥w€ö€ö\$°“(Œ€ö€ö9\(»À(÷€ö€ö"\ Áº„€ö€ö\$Å¢(ž€ö€ö<\(Í,×(€ö€öš9\ ÑϤ€ö€ö\$ÕR(þ€ö€öL \ Ý䤺€ö€ö\$໇ “€ö€ö… \(ä!Ï+ö€ö€ö˜8\ æ­#È€ö€ö\ ì€ö€ö¼ ‡ð€ö€ö¼ ‡ó€ö€ö¼ ‡ökû(j€ö€ö0\,ÿQä(I€ö€ö+\ \í(Z€ö€ö.\,¬|.…€ö€ö \(±#+­€ö€ö?\ ¼,+Ì€ö€öB\,%`ý+B€ö€ö =\,, ¿+á€ö€ö”6\ . f+€ö€öN!\$0‹¨+l€ö€öZ(\$;5n+€ö€öP"\ ?ŽD Ad A€ö€öT%\$Hê£A€ö€öŒ3\ N€.Y€ö€öX'\ UšÛ+‚€ö€ö\\ bòö5¨€ö€ö`*\ h·+Ô€ö€ö’5\ p7ß(€ö€öœ:\ x€ö€ö¼ ‡{ý¸€ö€öb+\$hO.9€ö€öu\(†Ð€ö€öe,\$Š'%.ê€ö€öh\(Žd]€ö€öz/\,”¡oq€ö€ö0\$œ€ö€ö¼ ‡ŸÇ+ê€ö€ö–7\ ¥Õš=²€ö€öŠ2\$«Ê(ž€ö€öˆ1\ ³Mò.)€ö€ö<\$»€ö€ö¼ ‹Ào0+u€ö€ö¢\ ɨ€ö¼Šl|<ü|L,ìü\¼<Ì,Œ¼Ì \Œ¼ Ü <|ìÜ\lL,lœŒœì<ÌÌìŒ\ |,Ü<ÜLŒ¬¼œ¬œL<ÌÜ|ì ¬ü\,¼üül¬lœ,¬L\LC¡7L¿hhÈÎSUMPRODVMINVMAXTimeINITIAL TIMEFINAL TIMETIME STEP SAVEPER.Mktgrow3 BacklogOrders BookedDelivery Rate -unitsConstantSalesPeople -people BudgetDelivery Rate AveragePrice of an OrderFraction Rev to Sales-$ -MonthCapacity Arrival Rate PCOO 3Prd Cap Transit DelayCapacity Expansion Fraction&Capacity Expansion Fraction LOOKUPDelivery Delay ConditionDelivery Delay Bias-fractionChng In DDRCDelivery Delay Indicated*Delivery Delay Recognized by the CompanyDDRC Average Time -monthsChng In DDRM*Delivery Delay Recognized by the MarketDDRM Average TimeChng in DDTDelivery Delay TraditionalTime for DDTChng In DRADelivery Rate Average Time ContactsSalesPeopleSWMContacts per Person-contacts -person -dmnl"Delivery Delay Operating Goal"Delivery Delay Management GoalDelivery Delay MinimumProduction CapacityDelivery Delay Weighting"Delivery Delay Weighting CompUtilization of CapacitySWCCEPA*Normal Effect of Product AttractivenessEPA SwitchSTEPIndicated SalesPeopleSalesPerson SalaryInitProduction Capacity2Normal Effect of Product Attractiveness LOOKUPOrders Per ContactStep in Product Order RateTime for Step in Order Rate -contactPCCO 1 to 2Prd Capacity on Order 1PCCO 2 to 3 PCOO 2Production Cap OrderedProduction Cap Ordering -unitSwitch for CapacitySalesPeople HiredSalesPeople Adjustment TimeUnfilled Order for Capacity:SUPPLEMENTARY"Utilization of Capacity LOOKUP.MarketGrowth`g¡7L¿ ‡¡7L¿FFÈAü l|ü||ü|L|||,#L(<+ü|.|2ü|5lì9|=l|,¡7L¿È¡7L¿¤¤dlì œ|̼,lœ<ÜÜÜ \¼¼ ,Lœ¬Üì \ŒÜl\ÜŒLLœL̼<,¼¼ÜÌ, l|ÌÜÌܼœ¼œ¬,Œ,ŒŒ¬¼œœŒ,,¼œœÜœlìÌÜ  ì Ì\ÜÜìÌ܌ܬì¬2.ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Times New Roman#dMarketing4/ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Times New RomandDelivery Standards63ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Times New Roman)dCapacity and Supply85ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Times New RomandDelivery Delay ConditionF7ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Times New Roman?dMarket & Production #*5@KValw‚Š‘œ§­³¹¿ÅÌÒØÞäêðöü2H¡7L¿››Èx ì…Œ(*( E ÿ€€€  0Êÿ 0"*( : ÿ€€€ *(  Ìf ÿ€€€€€€ *( ,V ÿ€€€ *( dE ÿ€€€€€€ *( <±U(€€€ *( \ ™L ÿ€€€€€€ *( LŒT@ ÿ€€€€€€ *( ìê¤4 ÿ€€€€€€  0dTÿ 0$T"*( ¼$d, ÿ€€€ *( Ì{£X ÿ€€€ 5dêÞH»Í·:® YU ~ ÕU ûT dCT ‰ ÔsU‡VT  • ÿÿReplicated by ??? MIT System Dynamics Groupfa †Í ÿÿUpdated by Tom Fiddaman, Ventana Systems, Tom@Vensim.com †F,(ÿÿMorecroft, J. D. W. (1983). System Dynamics: Portraying Bounded Rationality. Omega, 11(2), 131-142. See also: Forrester, J. W. (1968). Market Growth as Influenced by Capital Investment. Industrial Management Rev. (MIT), 9(2), 83-105.„š ")4?FQ\gmsy…‹‘—H¡7L¿ÍÍÈ£ œQ(*( ,μ}ÿ€€€  0UPÿ 0˜P"*( Œ˜`& ÿ€€€ *( ¬[¤)ÿ€€€  LבRÿ*( \Ý`ÿ€€€€€€ *( ŒYQDÿ€€€ *( œkÜVÿ€€€ ÇPdwP¶“årt‡­¼yq m '¹ x Ì "-4?JU\cnu€‡’¤¯¶¼ÂÈÎÔÚàæìòøþ "(.H¡7L¿››È4 œª–(*( ¬|ðF ÿ€€€  ¼^–(*( ÌnN ÿ€€€  œ–(*( ¼x†b ÿ€€€€€€ *( |Æ–(€€€ *( üÒhG ÿ€€€€€€  0–ÿ 0P–"*( ÜP²2(ÿ€€€  Ü–"*( Œ©, ÿ€€€  Œ¸–"*( ¬¸©, ÿ€€€ *( ,¨ZJ ÿ€€€  ,l–"*( Œl²((ÿ€€€  ,^2U Ô–  – l– d3– UÞ "Ð пŽ¾ºÐsK¤:ˆ–DË@3ç$@œ– $@è–$@P–@¹@@b@^f@µb”š &-8?FQ\gmsy…‹‘—H¡7L¿ÍÍÈ Ü‹ÄN ÿ*( L‰h ÿ€€€€€€ *( <X`M ÿ€€€€€€  ,‹7*( ÆaM ÿ€€€  0 ÿ 0ÿ"*( ÿ2 ÿ€€€ *( Ìï®$ ÿ€€€€€€ *( 숯4 ÿ€€€€€€ ‰¡‹ç,dÐ0?ÝAP( Ý ¢¸Ì &-8?FQXcny„š¥°»ÆÑÜçòý!,7=CIOU[agmsy…‹‘—Ÿ¥«±·½ÃÉÏÕÛáçíøH¡7L¿nnÈþ ̵/(*( Ü{^ ÿ€€€ *( ÌòÓ ÿ€€€  0 0ÿ*( L›‡> ÿ€€€  0k1ÿ 00"*( ì@+ ÿ€€€  ìY/"*( ÜY?2 ÿ€€€ *( \²§V ÿ€€€ *( l‚W ÿ€€€ *( LÜ>h ÿ€€€€€€ *( |o”I ÿ€€€€€€ *( ¼“ ÿ€€€ *( ¬ÓëE ÿ€€€ *( lêM ÿ€€€ *( LÓ)g ÿ€€€ *( T@ ÿ€€€ *( ìt0 ÿ€€€€€€ *( ü’ ÿ€€€ *( ìGö' ÿ€€€ *( ܤ{ ÿ€€€ *( l¥l7€€€ *( <r=ž ÿ€€€ *( |­§F ÿ€€€  0•lÿ 0Dl"*( \D|3 ÿ€€€ *( ,º‘ ÿ€€€€€€  v/ d3/?0dö0 ØP  Ž òe ÿv é(ÊF a?Gnp²‰mÓ¾pK¹KYChE{åÅ÷¤A) ldkl”, ä*( 2K ÿ€€€€€€ =6E¸mH¡7L¿  Ȥ:•lG¦€?•|J•ÌG$•Ü•ì¦úD*• ¦ AJ•,%%•<•L•\R'•Œ'•œ'•¬¦@@J6'•¼H•Ì$•Ü•ì‚B0•Ì¦¦)\½¦?¦ ×£¼¦€?¦¦À?¦ ×£<¦@¦)\=¦ @¦š™>Rb9• '$••,•<RnA•\'$•,•l•|R{J•Œ'$•,•œ•¬RˆO•¼'$•ì•<•ÌŠ–W•Ü% #%•ì•ü%$¦€?•ü• • *¨`• ¦ÈB*³h•<¦€@*»q•|¦À@*Ãz•ì¦š™™>:Ì‚•Ü'•,•L:Ö‹•'•Ì•ì*ß“•\¦@:盕l'•Ì•|bð£•L#%•œ•Œ%•\•œ:þ®•,G• •: ¸•lG•\•,:•œG•Œ•\*Ë•Œ¦€?:&Ô•œ$¦€?•Œš/Ü•ì#%%•|•¬•¼%'•Ì•L$¦€?•¼:Bå•<G•¼•ì*Mî•Ì¦€?¢Uö•Ì#%•Ü•ì%$¦€?•ì#¦€?ü0¦¦B*i•ì¦€?*q•Œ¦ðBby•\#¦ÍÌÌ=%ü0¦ÍÌL=¦@A¦:‡• '•,•0•|¦*˜•,¦úC:¡$•ÜH•<•lÒ«.•<¦¦€?¦€?¦ìQx?¦@¦R¸^?¦@@¦Há:?¦€@¦®?¦ @¦\Â>¦À@¦€>¦à@¦š™>¦A¦ ×£=¦A¦Âõ<¦ A¦ ×£<ŠÞ8•Ü%%%•Ü•L•Ì#¦€?ü0•\•l*ñB•L¦€?RúJ•Œ'•œ'•¬¦@@R S•¬'•¼'•¬¦@@j\•¼G$•Œ•¬'%•Ì•¬¦@@j)g•œG$•¬•Œ'%•Ì•¬¦@@*:r•¬¦@AjB}•œG$•Ü•Œ'%•Ì•¬¦@@*Sˆ•L¦pDJ\•Ì%%•|•¼•ü*j™•Ü•Ì:u¢•|G•Œ•,:€«•ìG• ¦ A*Š´•¦ AR’¼• '$• •ì•*žÄ•¦zE*©Ì•¬•œ*²Ñ•\¦*ºØ•¼¦€?*ÂÞ•ü¦€?*Êä•ü¦€?*Òꕬ¦@A*Úò•l¦ A*âø•œ¦?Jêü•,##•œ•¼•œ:ö•¬H•L•lÒ•L¦¦¦?¦€>¦€?¦?¦À?¦…+?¦@¦ÍÌL?¦ @¦R¸^?¦@@¦{n?¦`@¦33s?¦€@¦ìQx?¦@¦Ház?¦ @¦€? H¡7L¿77È3"•Ì¸&¸G•Ü¸$¸•ì±¸¦úD ‡ü• &®º¦ A ‡•,¸&¸•<%•L%•\‡l'‡|"•Œ&®º¸•œ'•¬'¦@@‡ü'‡|'‡|•¼¸&¸®•Ì•Ü$•ì‡ü'‡|n•Ì¸®¦±¸$¦)\=±¸¦?±¸$¦ ×£<±¸¦€?±¸¦±¸¦À?±¸¦ ×£<±¸¦@±¸¦)\=±¸¦ @±¸¦š™>¸‡ü'‡|• ¸&¸•$•,'•<‡L'‡|"•\¸&¸•,$•l®'•|‡L'‡|"•Œ¸&¸•,$®•œ'•¬‡L'‡|•¼¸&¸•ì$•<'•Ì‡ü'‡|'‡|6•Ü&®º¸•ì%•ü#¦€?$•ü%• %• ‡'‡|• ¸&¸¦ÈB‡'‡,'‡|•<¸&¸¦€@ ‡L•|¸&¸¦À@ ‡L•ì¸&¸¦š™™> ‡<•Ü¸&¸•,'®•L ‡<•¸&¸•Ì'•ì ‡L•\¸&¸¦@ ‡L•l¸&¸•Ì'•| ‡L*•L¸&¸•œ%•Œ®#®®•\%•œ ‡L•,¸&¸G¸• ±¸•® ‡L•l¸&¸G•\±¸•,® ‡L•œ¸&¸G•Œ±¸•\ ‡L•Œ¸&¸¦€? ‡<•œ¸&¸¦€?$•Œ ‡<:•ì¸&¸•|%•¬%•¼#•Ì'•L®%¦€?$•¼‡ü'‡|•<¸&¸G•¼±¸•ì‡ü'‡|•Ì¸&¸¦€? ‡LB•Ì¸&¸•Ü%•ì#®®¦€?$•ì%¦€?#•ü¦±¦B ‡<•ì¸&¸¦€? ‡<•Œ¹&¸¦ðB ‡|*•\¸&¸¦ÍÌÌ=#•ü¦ÍÌL=±¦@A%¦ ‡<• ¸&¸•,'• ‡•|¹&¸¦ ‡|•,¸&¸¦úC‡ü'‡|•Ü¸&¸®•<•l® ‡<¾•<¸®¦±¸¦€?±¸¦€?±¸¦ìQx?±¸¦@±¸¦R¸^?±¸¦@@±¸¦Há:?±¸¦€@±¸¦®?±¸¦ @±¸¦\Â>±¸¦À@±¸¦€>±¸¦à@±¸¦š™>±¸®¦A±¸¦ ×£=±¸¦A±¸¦Âõ<±¸¦ A±¸¦ ×£<¸ ‡<:•Ü¸&¸•Ü%•L%•Ì%®®¦€?#•ü•\±•l‡ü'‡|•L¸&¸¦€?‡ü'‡|"•Œ&®º¸•œ'•¬'¦@@‡ü'‡|'‡|"•¬&®º¸•¼'•¬'¦@@‡ü'‡|'‡|2•¼&¸G¸®º•Œ$•¬±®ºº¸•Ì%•¬'¦@@‡ü'‡|2•œ&¸G¸®º•¬$•Œ±®ºº¸•Ì%•¬'¦@@‡ü'‡|•¬&®º¸¦@A ‡|2•œ&¸G¸®º•Ü$•Œ±®ºº¸•Ì%•¬'¦@@‡ü'‡|•L¸&¸¦pD‡l'‡ì•Ì&®º¸•|%•¼%•ü‡ü'‡|'‡|•Ü&®º¸•Ì‡ü'‡|'‡|•|¸&¸G•Œ±¸•,‡ü'‡|•ì¸&¸G• ±¸¦ A ‡•¸&¸¦ A ‡L• ¸&¸• $•ì'•‡'‡|•¸&¸¦zE‡l'‡,'‡|•¬¹&¸®¹•œ ‡|•\&®º¸¦ ‡<•¼¸&¸¦€? ‡<•ü¸&¸¦€? ‡<•ü¸&¸¦€? ‡<•¬¸&¸¦@A ‡L•l¸&¸¦ A ‡L•œ¹&¸¦? ‡|•,&®º•œ#•¼#•œ‡ü'‡|•¬&®º¸•L•l ‡<¾•L¸®¦±¸¦±¸¦?±¸¦€>±¸¦€?±¸¦?±¸¦À?±¸¦…+?±¸¦@±¸¦ÍÌL?±¸¦ @±¸¦R¸^?±¸¦@@±¸¦{n?±¸¦`@±¸¦33s?®±¸¦€@±¸¦ìQx?±¸¦@±¸¦Ház?±¸¦ @±¸¦€?¸ ‡<6H¡7L¿Èý&Internally defined simulation time.& DOCUMENT: Backlog UNITS: units6 DOCUMENT: Marketing Budget UNITS: dollars/monthR DOCUMENT: Arrival Rate of New Production Capacity UNITS: capacity units/monthn DOCUMENT: Capacity Expansion Fraction as Determined by the Delivery Delay Condition UNITS: dimensionlessn DOCUMENT: Capacity Expansion Fraction as Determined by the Delivery Delay Condition UNITS: dimensionlessZ DOCUMENT: Change in the Delivery Delay Recognized by the Company UNITS: months/monthZ DOCUMENT: Change in the Delivery Delay Recognized by the Market UNITS: months/monthV DOCUMENT: Change in the Average Rate of Product Delivery UNITS: units/month/month6 DOCUMENT: Sales Contacts UNITS: contacts/monthF DOCUMENT: Contacts per Sales Person UNITS: contacts/person/monthr DOCUMENT: Average Time Required for Adjustement in the Delivery Delay Recognized by the Com[any UNITS: monthsj DOCUMENT: Average Time Requried to Adjust the Delivery Delay Recognized by the Market UNITS: months: DOCUMENT: Delivery Delay Bias UNITS: dimensionless> DOCUMENT: Delivery Delay Condition UNITS: dimensionless^ DOCUMENT: Delivery Delay Indicated by the Current Backlog and Delivery Rate UNITS: monthsB DOCUMENT: Management's Goal for Delivery Delay UNITS: months> DOCUMENT: Minimum Possible Delivery Delay UNITS: months> DOCUMENT: Operating Goal for Delivery Delay UNITS: monthsF DOCUMENT: Delivery Delay Recognized by the Company UNITS: monthsF DOCUMENT: Delivery Delay Recognized by the Market UNITS: months: DOCUMENT: Traditional Delivery Delay UNITS: monthsz DOCUMENT: Weighting Parameter for Tradtional Delivery Delay in the Delivery Delay Operating Goal UNITS: dimensionlessB DOCUMENT: Delivery Delay Weighting Complement UNITS: months: DOCUMENT: Rate of Product Delivery UNITS: units/monthF DOCUMENT: Average Rate of Product Delivery Units: units/monthR DOCUMENT: Average Time Required to Adjust Average Delivery Rate UNITS: monthsV DOCUMENT: Effect of Delivery Delay on Product Attractiveness UNITS: dimensionless^ DOCUMENT: Fraction of Sales Revenue Dedicated to Marketing and Sales UNITS: dimensionless^ DOCUMENT: Level of Sales Personnel Indicated by Current Marketing Budget UNTIS: peopleJ DOCUMENT: Intial Production Capacity UNTIS: production capacity unitsV DOCUMENT: Effect of Delivery Delay on Product Attractiveness UNITS: dimensionlessV DOCUMENT: Effect of Delivery Delay on Product Attractiveness UNITS: dimensionless> DOCUMENT: Orders for Product Booked Units: units/month> DOCUMENT: Orders per Sales Contact Units: units/contact^ DOCUMENT: Flow from Production Capacity on Order One to Two UNITS: capacity units/monthf DOCUMENT: Production Capacity on Order Moving from Stage Two to Three UNITS: capacity units/monthV DOCUMENT: Production Capacity on Order, Stage Two of Three UNITS: capacity units^ DOCUMENT: Production Capacity on Order, Stage Three of Three UNITS: Production Capacity‚ DOCUMENT: Average Time Required for Production Capacity Ordered to be Received UNITS: month COMMENT_ Delay is Twelved MonthsV DOCUMENT: Production Capacity on Order, Stage One of Three UNITS: capacity units6 DOCUMENT: Price of an Order UNITS: dollars/unitN DOCUMENT: New Order for Production Capacity UNITS: capacity units/monthN DOCUMENT: Orders for New Production Capacity UNITS: capacity units/month6 DOCUMENT: Production Capacity UNITS: units/month* DOCUMENT: Sales People UNITS: peopleN DOCUMENT: Average Time Required to Hire/Fire Sales People UNTIS: months> DOCUMENT: Sales People Hired/Fired UNITS: People/monthF DOCUMENT: Monthly Salary for a Sales Person UNITS: dollars/month2DOCUMENT: Test Step in Product Order Rate (0.5)" DOCUMENT: Switch for Contacts. DOCUMENT: Switch for Capacity Constraing* DOCUMENT: Switch for Marketing Testf DOCUMENT: Average Time Required for Adjustments in the Traditional Delivery Delay UNITS: months6 DOCUMENT: Time for Test Step in Product Order RatebDOCUMENT: Total Outstanding Orders for Production Capacity UNITS: production capacity unitsÊ DOCUMENT: Utilization of Capacity UNITS: dimensionless COMMENT- Relates minimum posssible delivery delay to current product rate, time constant for production is implicit in the table function.Ê DOCUMENT: Utilization of Capacity UNITS: dimensionless COMMENT- Relates minimum posssible delivery delay to current product rate, time constant for production is implicit in the table function.R Replicated by ??? MIT System Dynamics Group Updated by Tom Fiddaman, Ventana Systems, Tom@Vensim.com Morecroft, J. D. W. (1983). System Dynamics: Portraying Bounded Rationality. Omega, 11(2), 131-142. See also: Forrester, J. W. (1968). Market Growth as Influenced by Capital Investment. Industrial Management Rev. (MIT), 9(2), 83-105.P€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö€ö A€öÈB€@À@š™™>€ö€ö@€ö€ö€?€ö€ö€?€ö€?ðB€ö€öúC€ö€ö€?€ö€ö@ApD€ö€ö A€özE€ö€?€?€?@A A?€ö€ö   ('2 =¡7L¿BBÈ?€?À?@ @)\½ ×£¼ ×£<)\=š™>€?@@@€@ @À@à@AA A€?ìQx?R¸^?Há:?®?\Â>€>š™> ×£=Âõ< ×£<?€?À?@ @@@`@€@@ @€>?…+?ÍÌL?R¸^?{n?33s?ìQx?Ház?€?///---\\\ :L<%^E!@ 9:Current2 22:$,Dollar,Dollars,$s 22:Contact,Contacts 22:Day,Days 22:Hour,Hours 22:Month,Months 22:Person,People,Persons 22:Unit,Units 22:Week,Weeks 22:Year,Years 15:0,0,0,0,0,0 19:100,0 27:0, 5:ConstantSalesPeople 24:0 25:0 26:0