Tom Fiddaman, Ventana Systems 3/9/2003
Update - October 2006 - I've added a newer model survey here; the content below remains until I get a chance to integrate the two.
There are now very many integrated assessment models. This report lists references to the subset that I am at least a little familiar with. These generally contain a significant energy-economy model as a core component. I have omitted models – except MAGICC below – that contain only biogeophysical components.
There are not as many comprehensive reviews of integrated models as there should be, but three useful resources are:
http://sedac.ciesin.org/mva/iamcc.tg/TGHP.html
The core of the site is an article, In Search of Integrated Assessment (Edward A. Parson and Karen Fisher-Vanden, John F. Kennedy School of Government) with pointers to brief descriptions of about 20 integrated models and modeling programs. Most of those links are replicated here for convenience.
The FREE model is a single-region dynamic, disequilibrium model that includes learning curves, economies of scale, and embodiment of technology and energy intensity attributes in capital stocks. It used behavioral decision rules rather than optimization for reasons of realism and speed. The model is fully documented and publicly available. Two brief articles describing the model accompany this note.
http://www.sd3.info/models/Library/ClimatePolicy/FREE/index.html
The full SRES report may be found at:
The report contains descriptions of each of the models used:
http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/150.htm
http://sres.ciesin.org/OpenProcess/htmls/Model_Descriptions.html
The homepage of the project contains additional data and links:
The following is a list of the 6 models used, extracted from the report, with some additional sources added by me, in italics:
Minicam incorporates the Edmonds-Reilly-Barns multiregional energy-economy model and runs reasonably quickly, with a user interface.
“The Edmonds-Reilly-Barns (ERB) energy-economic model represents long-term trends in economic output, energy use, and greenhouse gas emissions for nine world regions through detailed submodules representing energy resources, primary energy supply and demand, energy markets including world trade and electricity conversion, and fuel-specific emissions factors.
http://sedac.ciesin.org/mva/iamcc.tg/TGsec4-2-3.html
Model of the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change; includes the EPPA energy-economy model, which is a successor to the OECD GREEN model.
“The MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model is used to analyze the processes that produce greenhouse-relevant emissions, and to assess the consequences of policy proposals intended to control these emissions. It is a global, applied general equilibrium model of economic growth, international trade, and greenhouse gas emissions (CO2, CO, CH4, SO2, NOx, N2O, CFCs) from a set of trade-linked economic regions. The model also includes consideration of sulfates and non-methane volatile organic carbon gases, which are important inputs to the atmospheric chemistry-climate component of the IGSM.
The EPPA model is used to compute predictions of anthropogenic emissions of the key gases from twelve economic regions, and converts them into distributions by latitude where needed. Special provision is made for analysis of uncertainty in key influences, such as the growth of population and economic activity, and the pace and direction of technical change. Further, EPPA has been formulated to support analysis of a variety of emissions control policies, providing estimates of the magnitude and distribution among nations of the costs, and clarifying the ways that changes are mediated through international trade.”
http://web.mit.edu/globalchange/www/if.html
“MERGE provides a framework for thinking about climate change management proposals. The model is designed to be sufficiently flexible to be used to explore alternative views on a wide range of contentious issues, e.g., costs, damages, valuation, and discounting. We begin with a description of the model's individual components and show how they fit together. We then provide an initial application to illustrate how the framework can be used in the assessment of alternative policy options. Given the level of uncertainty which pervades the climate debate, it would be unrealistic to expect cost-benefit analysis to lead to consensus on a bottom line -- at least any time soon. Rather, models such as MERGE should be viewed as research tools capable of providing insights into which aspects of the debate may be most important. In this way, they can help focus the discussion and identify the areas where additional research may have the highest pay-off. “
http://sedac.ciesin.org/mva/iamcc.tg/articles/MMR1993/MMR1993.html
“MERGE is a regionally disaggregated integrated-assessment model, whose development was supported by the Electric Power Research Institute. MERGE is based on Global 2200, a dynamic general equilibrium model with five world regions and a single consumer in each region who makes both savings and consumption decisions. A simple climate model represents atmospheric lifetimes of CO2, CH4, and N2O, which yield global change in radiative forcing, and equilibrium and realized global-average temperature change. Illustrative impact functions are defined separately for market and non-market components. Market impacts are modeled as a quadratic function of realized temperature change, calibrated to pass through a judgmental point estimate that is consistent with the estimate of Nordhaus. Non-market impacts are modeled as a worldwide public good, for which each region's willingness to pay to avoid a specified temperature change is an S-shaped function of regional income.”
http://sedac.ciesin.org/mva/iamcc.tg/TGsec4-2-11.html
A large-scale model with multiregional emissions, detailed atmospheric chemistry, and spatially distributed impacts.
Climate in a sustainable development context.
http://sedac.ciesin.org/mva/iamcc.tg/TGsec4-2-7.html
The TARGETS-IMAGE Energy Regional Model
http://www.rivm.nl/bibliotheek/rapporten/461502024.pdf (in English)
The TARGETS-IMAGE Energy Model
http://www.rivm.nl/bibliotheek/rapporten/461502016.html (in English)
A distillation of the most important features of the IMAGE model.
http://www.rivm.nl/bibliotheek/rapporten/461502020.html
A carbon allocation regime model.
http://arch.rivm.nl/fair/index.html
A more-sophisticated derivative of the Image 1.0 model
http://sedac.ciesin.org/mva/iamcc.tg/TGsec4-2-5.html
A general equilibrium model that has been coupled to IMAGE for scenario analysis.
http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg3/082.htm
Nordhaus’ DICE is probably the simplest and most widely known and adapted integrated model. http://www.econ.yale.edu/~nordhaus/homepage/dicemodels.htm
http://sedac.ciesin.org/mva/iamcc.tg/TGsec4-2-15.html
A regionalized version of DICE.
http://www.econ.yale.edu/%7Enordhaus/homepage/web%20rice%20summary%20102599.htm
A spreadsheet version is available from Nordhaus’ web site.
http://sedac.ciesin.org/mva/iamcc.tg/TGsec4-2-18.html
Lee, R. and S. Das. 1995. Modification of the DICE Model to Include the Energy Sector. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn. (in preparation).
http://www.esd.ornl.gov/iab/iab2-10.htm
“The DICE Model has been modified to incorporate the energy sector within a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) production function that includes energy inputs. In addition, the model is also being modified to characterize the linkages between technological progress and the economy, to simulate technology transfer in a two-region framework, and to investigate the relationship between human capital and technological advances. “
http://www.etsap.org/main.html
http://www.eia.doe.gov/bookshelf/models2002/contents.html#NEMS
http://www.onlocationinc.com/fideas.html
http://www.energy2020.com/model_overview.htm
In no particular order.
An intertemporal general equilibrium model for fossil fuel markets, from Statistics Norway.
http://www.ssb.no/cgi-bin/publsoek?job=forside&id=dp-267&kode=dp&lang=en
http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~fuessel/download/systems00_slides.pdf
http://jisao.washington.edu/PNWimpacts/RIAworkshop/Warren.pdf
Peck, S.C. and T.J. Teisberg, 1994: Optimal carbon emissions trajectories when damages depend on the rate or level of global warming. Climatic Change, 28, 289-314.
“CETA is a model developed at the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), which contains a single world region. The model draws on a major energy-economic model, Global 2100, a previous EPRI project. Global 2100 modeled five world regions with moderately detailed energy sectors and a single representative consumer-producer in each (Manne and Richels 1992). CETA collapses the Global 2100 world into one region and adds simple illustrative representations of the carbon cycle, global-average temperature change, and damages due to warming. In CETA, the world's single consumer-producer now optimizes present value utility of consumption net of loss from climate change. “
http://sedac.ciesin.org/mva/iamcc.tg/TGsec4-2-10.html
“The CSERGE (Center for Social and Economic Research into the Global Environment) Model, currently under development at the University College of London, is a global dynamic non-linear optimization model designed to determine the optimal level of greenhouse gas emissions reductions from abatement cost and damage functions (Maddison 1994a; 1994b). The marginal cost of emissions reductions (obtained from the shadow price) are a resultant of the model, which can be used to assess the desirability of alternative policies to reduce emissions. Uncertainty is treated in the model through the use of two point probability distributions on population, labor productivity, abatement costs, damages, and climate.”
http://sedac.ciesin.org/mva/iamcc.tg/TGsec4-2-17.html
“The Climate Framework for Uncertainty, Negotiation and Distribution (FUND) is a so-called integrated assessment model of climate change. FUND was originally set-up to study the role of international capital transfers in climate policy, but it soon evolved into a test-bed for studying impacts of climate change in a dynamic context, and it is now often used to perform cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analyses of greenhouse gas emission reduction policies and to support game-theoretic investigations into international environmental agreements.
FUND links scenarios and simple models of population, technology, economics, emissions, atmospheric chemistry, climate, sea level, and impacts. Together, these elements describe not-implausible futures. The model runs in time-steps of one year from 1950 to 2200, and distinguishes nine major world regions. FUND further includes the option to reduce emissions of industrial carbon dioxide. Reductions can be set by the user, or calculated so as to meet certain criteria set by the user.”
http://www.uni-hamburg.de/Wiss/FB/15/Sustainability/fund.html
http://sedac.ciesin.org/mva/iamcc.tg/TGsec4-2-21.html
Plambeck, E.L. and C. Hope, 1996: An updated valuation of the impacts of global warming. Energy Policy, 24(9), 783-793.
http://sedac.ciesin.org/mva/iamcc.tg/TGsec4-2-16.html
Dowlatabadi and Morgan (1995), Carnegie-Mellon Univ.
http://hdgc.epp.cmu.edu/models-icam/models-icam.html#icam
MAGICC - Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change is a set of linked simple models that, collectively, fall in the genre of a Simple Climate Model as defined by Harvey et al. (1997). MAGICC is not a GCM, but it uses a series of reduced-form models to emulate the behaviour of fully three-dimensional, dynamic GCMs. MAGICC calculates the annual-mean global surface air temperature and global-mean sea-level implications of emissions scenarios for greenhouse gases and sulphur dioxide (Raper et al., 1996). Users are able to choose which emissions scenarios to use, or to define their own, and also to alter a number of model parameters to explore uncertainty. The model has been widely used by the IPCC in their various assessments.
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~mikeh/software/MAGICC_SCENGEN.htm
David L. Kelly, Charles D. Kolstad. November 1998.
http://www.econ.ucsb.edu/papers/wp31-98.pdf
Azar, Christian; Dowlatabadi, Hadi. A Review of the Treatment of Technical Change in Energy Economics Models. In Annual Review of Energy and the Environment, edited by Robert Socolow. Palo Alto: Annual Reviews Inc. Volume 24. forthcoming.